The Army keeps marching along and we had another productive week mapping out our strategies for the upcoming draft season. Each week I try to cover a topic that is relevant to most people drafting. Last week was about the build if you take Mahomes or Jackson early.
One question that came up in Wednesday’s 10:00 pm mock was “What’s your thought on taking a TE early?” It’s a great question and I think there are several ways to answer it. As always we start with “it depends on the rules”.
The FFPC runs an online championship that is “TE premium” awarding tight ends 1.5 points per reception. This puts a premium on the position and in these leagues you see TEs being drafted early. Last year, in the main event leagues I was in, Travis Kelce went as early as 5th overall. I am not a proponent of this strategy as I don’t think the extra 35-40 points over the 17 game schedule should move him up that high on the draft board. I won one of the two leagues I was in and the championship game was against a team that drafted 3 TEs in the first 5 or 6 rounds. So it can work both ways. This league also has 2 flex spots so he was able to use all three TEs in his starting lineup.
In leagues where there is no premium on the position, we see four players being chosen in the first 4 or 5 rounds before the tier drops off. Travis Kelce and George Kittle are your tier one and Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews make up the second tier. What we have noticed this week in the MDA is that Andrews has been falling a bit in the mocks. In the 12 team from Wednesday, I was able to take him at 61st overall. His current NFBC ADP is 50 and has gone to 48 over the last two weeks. If you average out the week, Andrews’ MDA ADP is 53. I may have just gotten lucky in that mock.
When taking a tight end that early how does it affect your team’s construction? Doing it in place of a WR is the way to go. If you compromise taking a RB to take the TE, then you are doing the same thing as taking a WR over a RB. As we did last week with the QBs, let’s take a look at how rosters were constructed and how the evaluator thought the teams would finish.
In the 12 team mock on Thursday I tested out taking Travis Kelce in the second round from the 5th slot, so 20th overall. His ADP varies from 10.27 in the FFPC TE premium leagues to 20.96 in the NFFC with his RTSports, Yahoo, and BB10 ADPs coming in between. I started with Alvin Kamara and chose David Johnson in the third (over Gordon (injury), Montgomery (not feeling it), and Bell (Adam Gase)). Three wide receivers followed: Thielen, Chark, and Gallup. I then went with Russell Wilson in the 7th, but when Stafford, Rodgers, and Brees go in the 13th round, not sure if that was a wise decision. The evaluator had me finishing 3rd in starter points.
On Tuesday we saw what happens if you ignore taking running backs with an early TE pick. Team JROD took Michael Thomas to start from the four hole. He followed that with Kelce AND Lamar Jackson in rounds 2 and 3. He then took JuJu Smith Schuster and Calvin Ridley . Five rounds, no running backs. His zero RB draft strategy had him finish 9th by the evaluator despite taking the top WR, top TE, and the top QB per our projections.
In our 10 teamer this week, Lev Bellcows was predicted to finish second and picked Zach Ertz in the 4th round. Sky Crooners took George Kittle in the second round but was projected tied for last. This was probably because they didn’t pick a kicker. If they had they would have been around 4th. Ivar Anderson took Kelce in the second round and was 7th. DC took Andrews in the 5th and had a 5th place finish predicted. It’s a viable option in a 10 team draft. Each of these teams took at least 2 running backs in their first 4 picks.
Roster construction is very important and it’s not just about taking the “best” players. There’s a reason why many analysts say “wait on QB” and “load up on RBs early”. Taking one of the top four tight ends will not hurt you as long as you pay attention to the rest of your draft.
ADP Risers
Antonio Gibson WR/RB Washington
Flying up draft boards this week is Antonio Gibson. With the suspension of Derrius Guice , the age of Adrian Peterson , the lack of enthusiasm for Peyton Barber , and the questionable health of Bryce Love, Gibson is the darling of the Washington backfield. The question is, is Gibson a viable NFL running back? He only ran the ball 33 times in 2019 and had a total of 71 touches in 14 games. Despite this, he did have 12 touchdowns and averaged 15.5 yards per touch. He’s athletic but I’m not sure if his ADP of 125 over the last two weeks is warranted. He’s a high risk/reward pick in the 11th round and he’s gone as early as the late 7th round.
Phillip Lindsay RB Denver
Philip Lindsay’s ADP is 103 since Aug 1. Lindsay has performed as the number one back for the Broncos and may be called upon it again as Melvin Gordon went down with a rib injury on Thursday. The significance of the injury is unknown at this time. We do have some time before the season starts for Gordon to get healthy but those rib injuries can linger. One thing we do know is that Lindsay’s stock will rise quickly if Gordon will miss some time.
Kareem Hunt RB Cleveland
Kareem Hunt has been drafted very early despite Nick Chubb being one of the most talented running backs in the league. Many view Hunt not only as a handcuff but a viable RB in PPR leagues. Hunt is being drafted ahead of Ronald Jones and Jordan Howard both of whom are considered the number one RB on their respective teams. He has already moved up about half a round since the beginning of August and with Nick Chubb ’s concussion, expect that to creep up a little more. He has moved from an ADP of 57 to 51 over the last week. It’s a high price to pay for a backup/3rd down back, but his production the last half of last season has some thinking he’s worth the price.
Allen Lazard WR Green Bay
Going back to May when the Packers didn’t draft a wide receiver, the question has been who will be the number two receiver alongside Davante Adams ? They signed Devin Funchess in April, but he opted out. With camp starting and before the press was told to keep their lips sealed as to what was going on in camp, Allen Lazard has emerged as the favorite to take the number two spot across from Adams. His ADP has gone from 180 to 158 over the last three weeks, jumping almost 3 rounds. He’s still going in the 14th round, but this could be a bargain late when you’re looking to get a wide receiver near the end of the draft.
ADP Fallers
Rob Gronkowski TE Tampa Bay
Earlier this week Peter King reported that Rob Gronkowski may end up third in TE snaps behind OJ Howard and Cameron Brate . Keeping Gronk healthy should be a priority for the Bucs this year. Coming off an injury-plagued 2018 and a year off in 2019, Gronk appears healthy and ready to go. Since King’s report, Gronk has fallen a half-round over eight NFFC drafts from 115 to 121. With his playing time a question, should he be taken as a low-end TE 1? With players like Jonnu Smith , Noah Fant, Blake Jarwin , and Jack Doyle available at the same time, does it make sense to take Gronk as your starting TE?
Ke’Shawn Vaughn RB Tampa Bay
Ke’Shawn Vaughn continues to drop further down draft boards after reports that he is lazy. Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com reported that Bruce Arians stated that Vaughn will most likely just be a kick returner in the season opener. This type of news isn’t good for his draft stock. Vaughn was the Buccaneers first draft pick this year so they obviously like him and felt they needed a RB. His ADP has gone from 94 to 114 over the last two weeks. At some point he may become a bargain, so be patient and maybe he’ll fall to you in the right spot.
Marlon Mack RB Indianapolis
When the internet shows the new shiny rookie barreling over defenders in practice, it’s not surprising that he rises and his competition for snaps falls. Over the last week, we have seen Marlon Mack take a half-round hit to his ADP as Jonathan Taylor continues to impress in camp. Kevin Hickey of Coltswire reports that Mack is seeing the most reps with the first team offense, but that doesn’t dampen the wow factor of Taylor’s reps. As with most rookies, especially with the unusual 2020 preseason, they may take a little time to crack the lineup. Fantasy players are now showing that they think that crack may develop even earlier than expected.
Player News
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane reports TE Dallas Goedert is expected to remain with the Eagles in 2025.
Goedert and the team are close to hashing out a reworked deal for the upcoming season. It’s quite the turnabout after Eagles coaches and front office officials have strongly implied for months that Goedert had played his last snap with the team. Goedert was widely expected to be dealt during the NFL Draft. If he indeed remains in the run-heavy Philadelphia offense, Goedert will be a solid top-12 fantasy option, well behind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in the team’s target pecking order. He averaged 4.2 catches and 49.6 receiving yards per game in 2024, and had the ninth highest EPA per target among tight ends.
Titans re-signed DT James Lynch.
Lynch, 26, a former fourth round selection by the Vikings, will return for a second season with the Titans after starting all 17 games in 2024. He had 20 tackles, two tackles for loss, and one sack for the Titans last season. Pro Football Focus graded the Titans as last year’s fourth worst pass rush and ninth best run-defending unit.
Jaguars released WR Gabe Davis.
Davis, who secured $24 million in guarantees when he signed with Jacksonville last year, managed 20 catches for 239 yards and two touchdowns over ten games in his only year with the Jags. The Davis signing is yet another in a string of disastrous decisions by the former Jacksonville front office. With Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter in the fold, the Jaguars ended their experiment with Davis, 26. He should see interest from wideout-needy teams in the coming weeks, including perhaps the Lions. Davis will be locked into a strictly downfield role wherever he lands this spring or summer.
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reports WR Allen Lazard is “in play” to sign with the Steelers.
Lazard has followed Aaron Rodgers from the Packers to the Jets, and now possibly to Pittsburgh if Rodgers decides to sign there and play again in 2025. Lazard had 29 catches over seven games with Rodgers under center for the Jets in 2024. He had been a healthy scratch for much of the 2023 season, which Rodgers missed with an Achilles injury. “The possibility hinges largely if not entirely on Rodgers signing with the Steelers,” Florio said. “While nothing with Rodgers is ever done until it’s done, the persistent thinking continues to be that it will happen.” Lazard would likely operate as the No. 2 wideout in Pittsburgh behind DK Metcalf. The team’s run heaviness and resulting dearth of targets would make it difficult for Lazard to be fantasy relevant in 2025.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Cowboys are finalizing a trade for Steelers WR George Pickens.
The move, which includes a 2026 third round pick and a 2027 fifth round pick sent to the Steelers, comes after another ESPN report saying Pickens, 24, wanted to remain in Pittsburgh. Acquiring Pickens — who has 2,841 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns over three NFL seasons — addresses an area of acute need for the Cowboys, who have one of the league’s weakest wideout room behind CeeDee Lamb. Pickens and Lamb will make for one of the NFL’s best receiver duos, with Pickens functioning as a viable downfield threat for Dak Prescott, who last season ranked 15th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks in deep ball accuracy. Pickens in 2024 was third in deep targets and second only to Alec Pierce in receiving yards on downfield receptions. Pickens will have far more upside in the Dallas offense than he did in Pittsburgh. DK Metcalf, meanwhile, will enter the 2025 season as the unquestioned No. 1 wideout for the run-heavy Steelers. His fantasy prospects look much brighter with Pickens in Dallas.
NFL Network’s Jane Slater reports Saints QB Derek Carr wants to “see if he can play through with this shoulder injury.”
Slater reports that Carr believes he injured his throwing shoulder in the same Week 14 game against the Giants that he injured his left wrist last season. The shoulder issue was apparently discovered as he ramped up throwing in the spring, not as the season wound down in 2024. Carr has already had surgery on that arm and wants to see if he can play through the injury. Slater adds that Carr made two trips to New Orleans to meet with the team doctor and a decision will be made “sooner rather than later” as the 34-year-old tries to make the best decision for his shoulder and the Saints aim to make the best decision for their franchise. It would be a surprise to see Carr return to start for the Saints, especially without having surgery. New Orleans has signaled an attempt to move on by selecting Tyler Shough in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Carr has two seasons left on his four-year, $150 million contract with the Saints and a decision on his future is looming.