I've seen a lot of folks saying D.J. Moore stinks or "the D.J. Moore experiment is over" so I decided to take a look at some numbers. After taking only a quick peek it was pretty easy to see what’s really going on. The answer is that Teddy Bridgewater loves to throw it short - especially over the middle of the field.
If you look at Bridgewater's passing direction chart, courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com, 39-percent of his 306 passes have been both between the numbers and less than 10 yards down field (which includes the space behind the line of scrimmage and between the numbers). Those attempts have generated 35-percent of his total passing yards. In that space, Robby Anderson has 30 receptions for 269 yards, Moore has 16 receptions for 210 yards, and Curtis Samuel has 16 receptions for 100 yards. For each player, that space is easily the largest source of their receptions and yards.
If you look at a guy like Aaron Rodgers that same space between the numbers and less than 10 yards downfield accounts for a big chunk of his production (as you would expect for most QBs) but the numbers are not nearly as dramatic. Rodgers has 26-percent of his attempts in that space (compared to 39-percent for Bridgewater) and 22-percent of his yardage (compared to 35-percent for Bridgewater). Thirteen percent is not a small figure when we are talking about the 550-to-650 passes most QBs throw on a season.
Now, let’s go back to Moore and Anderson. Coming into the season, most people projected that the speedy Robby Anderson would be the field stretcher on the outside but the opposite has been true. Moore has caught 35 passes. 17 have been on routes over 10-yards down field and 18 on routes less than 10-yards. Robby Anderson has caught 60 passes and 16 have come over 10-yards downfield while 44 have come less than 10-yards downfield. Pretty clear who is running the shorter routes.
If you look at the space that is outside the numbers on either side and less than 10-yards down field (so basically the flats either behind the line or short of the first down marker), you see a similar pattern. Moore has two catches in that area (including zero screens behind the line). Robby Anderson has 14.
In general, Bridgewater's deep pass rate (percentage of passes thrown 20+ yards in the air) is only 11.1-percent which is tied for QB25. Despite his lack of production overall, Moore's 272 yards on passes over 20-yards is actually the third most in the league behind only DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson and just ahead of Tyreek Hill . Justin Jefferson has 321 yards on deep pass plays from Kirk Cousins who has a deep pass rate of 19.1-percent while Moore has 272 yards on deep pass plays from a QB with a deep pass rate of 11.1-percent. Moore has caught nearly 50-percent of his passes beyond 10 yards and 42.5-percent of his yards are on passes over 20+ yards. Forget ~20-percent like Cousins - we have to wonder what Moore’s numbers might look like if Bridgewater’s rate was simply at the median level of 14-15-percent.
All this info makes the situation fairly clear - Robby Anderson and, recently, Curtis Samuel as well, are running shorter routes and either Teddy Bridgewater prefers to throw shorter passes or the offense in general lends itself to these passes. And the return of Christian McCaffrey is likely to bring an even higher percentage of shorter passes, not fewer. For Moore to succeed, he either needs to start running shorter routes or Teddy Bridgewater needs to start throwing deeper passes. Perhaps after four straight losses the Panthers will change up their approach but we need to actually see it before Moore can be trusted in fantasy.
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The Commanders will play the Dolphins in Madrid, Spain on November 16.
The NFL appears keen on spotlighting Jayden Daniels and the Commanders after their stunning run to the NFC title game last season. Daniels will lead the hyper-efficient Washington offense into Madrid for the last of the seven 2025 international regular season games. It could be an exciting back-and-forth affair between a high-powered Commanders offense — now with Deebo Samuel — and a Miami offense led by Tua Tagovailoa, De’Von Achane, and Tyreek Hill.
The Vikings in 2025 will have back-to-back international games in different countries.
They will be the first team to play back-to-back weeks in different countries outside the United States. The Vikings will face off against the Steelers in the first-ever NFL regular season game in Dublin on Stepember 28, then play the Browns in London the following weekend. It could be a tough travel schedule for the Vikings, though the Jaguars have played back-to-back international games in recent years. Those games were in the same country, however. The Vikings-Steelers game could be intriguing if Aaron Rodgers is under center for Pittsburgh after trying and failing to generate interest for his services in Minnesota this offseason.
The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen believes Cowboys WR George Pickens could see a “huge uptick” in single coverage this season.
Pickens, who was traded from the Steelers to the Cowboys last week in exchange for draft pick compensation, won’t function as the primary wideout in Dallas. Pickens’ ability to challenge secondaries deep is something the Cowboys have “sorely missed” in recent seasons, Nguyen said. “In Pittsburgh, opposing defenses often doubled Pickens or shaded a safety to his side,” he said. “With the Cowboys, if defenses choose to put a safety over the top of Pickens, Lamb will have more space to work with in the middle of the field. You would expect teams to continue doubling Lamb, which means Pickens could see a huge uptick in one-on-one coverage.” Pickens, according to Nguyen, will only improve the Dallas passing attack if he gives consistent effort. The moody Pickens became widely known for taking plays off — and sometimes giving little effort for an entire game — during his three years with the Steelers. More single coverage, however, could mean more explosive plays for the new Cowboys WR2. In the Steelers’ run-first scheme last season, Pickens was third in targets of more than 20 yards downfield and second in receiving yards on downfield receptions. Pickens had just one drop on 30 downfield looks in 2024.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Saints hosted free agent CB Asante Samuel for a visit Monday.
Samuel, fresh off offseason neck surgery, visited with the Saints Monday as he pursues his next playing opportunity. He has clear connection to the franchise after they hired Brandon Staley to fill their defensive coordinator position, for whom Samuel played under with the Chargers. Fowler adds that Samuel has another doctor visit scheduled for early July, during which time he hopes to gain clearance to resume football activities.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Packers met with WR Jayden Reed’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, to clarify his status with the team.
The meeting comes after the Packers selected a wide receiver in the first round for the first time since 2002 in this year’s draft. Schefter added that the team emphasized Reed’s status as the top option at wide receiver after the selection of Matthew Golden and Savion Williams. “Green Bay’s top receiver” means far less for fantasy than it does in other places around the league considering Reed led the team with just 62.6% of the team’s offensive snaps played in 2024. Reed in 2024 accounted for 16 percent of the Packers’ targets and 16 percent of the team’s air yards. He was targeted on just 19 percent of his pass routes after seeing a target on 23.4 percent of his routes in 2023.
Saints signed QB Hunter Dekkers.
Dekkers spent three seasons with the Cyclones of Iowa State before stepping away from football following an indictment surrounding charges related to sports gambling. He then played his final collegiate season at Iowa Western before being invited to Saints camp. Dekkers spent his redshirt season backing up Brock Purdy at Iowa State.