Super Bowl 57 Match-up Preview: Keys To Victory for Chiefs and Eagles

Super Bowl 57 Match-up Preview, betting, odds, top plays

Published: Feb 09, 2023

Updated: Feb 09, 2023

Super Bowl 57 between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles is finally here! It’s been a long 2022 NFL season to figure out who the best two teams in the league are and who has a shot to fight for the Lombardi Trophy. It’s one of the most-anticipated Super Bowl match-ups in recent memory and the game spread suggests that should be the case as well. It’s being called the Kelce Bowl as it’s the first time that two brothers are facing off against each other in the big game. However, it should also be called the Reid Bowl given that Andy Reid coached for both teams and was successful for both as well. There are any number of ways to breakdown this game and we’ll do our fair share of that if you keep reading. First though, let’s touch on the key odds for this game, the injuries to be concerned with for both teams, and then check out the 34 stats we’ve been breaking down every NFL game this season with.

How To Watch Super Bowl 57

On Sunday, February 12th the Kansas City chiefs will play the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 57. The game kickoff at 6:30 pm ET with coverage on Fox. Obviously pre-game festivities will be going basically all day but the game will get going about 6:30 pm ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Super Bowl 57 Game Odds

Spread:

Kansas City Chiefs +1.5

Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

Over/Under

Total: 50.5

What Are The Injuries To Watch For Super Bowl 57

During the AFC and NFC Championship games there was a ton of talk about injuries and ailments. The Chiefs certainly had the brunt of the injury concerns heading into and out of the championship game, but the Eagles didn’t escape empty handed either. Let’s take a peek at the players coming into the Super Bowl with concerns about being at 100-percent.

Kansas City Chiefs Injuries

The list was longer earlier in the week, but it appears now that the bulk of it has cleared itself up. The only real question for the team is Kadarius Toney. He went down in the AFC Championship game and didn’t come back and has been questionable to play against the Eagles since. As of Thursday of Super Bowl week, he’s still a question mark. However, he wasn’t the only one having questions as Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, L'Jarius Sneed all were banged up against the Bengals. Hardman was place on IR and won’t play in the Super Bowl but Valdes-Scantling and Sneed are both deemed as good to go. As for Patrick Mahomes’ ankle, he says it’s still sore but not as bad as it was for the AFC Championship.

Philadelphia Eagles Injuries

For the Eagles, they were the healthier team coming out of the one-sided NFC Championship game but now coming into the Super Bowl, there are a few key guys who are questionable. On the offense their best tackle, and one of the stalwarts of the line, Lane Johnson, is questionable for the game though is expected to give it a go. On defense, Avonte Maddox, their stud slot corner, is iffy for the game. If he can’t go, that could have a big effect on the Chiefs passing game and perhaps seeing Travis Kelce play slot more to take advantage of match-ups.

Super Bowl 57 Trends and Stats

All season we’ve been breaking down every NFL game with 34 different stats for each team in the match-up. We’ve also ranked those stats to see how they stack up against the rest of the league. We’ve got that below for Super Bowl 57 with both the Chiefs and Eagles stats through the regular season shown. Remember that the color-coding favors the offensive side of each stat.

Sunday 6:30 pm ET
Chiefs		at	Eagles
Stat	Rank	Offensive Stats	Rank	Stat
29.2	1	PPG	3	28.1
29:41	18	T.O.P.	8	30:33
413.6	1	Total Yards	3	389.1
64.4	13	Off Plays	5	66.1
24.5	25	Rush Att.	3	32
115.9	20	Rush Yds	5	147.6
4.7	8	Rush YPA	13	4.6
38.3	5	Pass Att.	23	31.5
297.8	1	Pass Yds	9	241.5
8.1	3	Pass YPA	2	8.1
Chiefs		at	Eagles
Stat	Rank	Defensive Stats	Rank	Stat
21.7	16	PPG Allowed	8	20.2
328.2	11	Yds/G Allowed	2	301.5
5.1	8	Yds/P Allowed	1	4.8
107.2	8	Rush Yds/G	16	121.6
4.4	15	Rush Yds/Att	24	4.6
6.59	32	RB Rec/G	20	5.06
220.9	18	Pass Yds/G	1	179.8
6.1	6	Pass Yds/Att	1	5.5
23.3	2	Def vs. QB	27	16.1
22.9	14	Def vs. RB	11	23.4
34.2	5	Def vs. WR	23	28
11.7	11	Def vs. TE	23	9.1
Chiefs		at	Eagles
Stat	Rank	Advanced Stats	Rank	Stat
27.46	14	Pace	9	27.29
38.1%	26	Rush %	6	48.4%
61.9%	7	Pass %	27	51.6%
69.4%	2	RZ %	3	67.8%
67.3%	31	RZ % Allowed	11	52.7%
1.4%	17	Total DVOA	6	-9.7%
6.5%	20	Pass DVOA	1	-15.5%
-6.9%	15	Rush DVOA	21	-1.9%
22.00%	31	DVOA v. #1 WR	2	-27.30%
-11.60%	10	DVOA v. #2 WR	4	-20.30%
-18.70%	8	DVOA v. #3/4 WR	22	9.60%
0.40%	19	DVOA v. TE	6	-12.90%

At first glance, there are some clear differences between these two teams, mainly between the defenses. However, we can’t take things at face value as that’s just not a good way to look at statistics. How have the teams been trending heading into this match-up? Below are a few charts for key stats since Week 12 through the playoffs.

First up is PPG Allowed:

Looking at the chart above, it looks like the Eagles have the edge on a week-by-week basis allowing fewer points six times in the last nine weeks to the Chiefs three weeks. However, in terms of total points allowed, Philadelphia has allowed 175 in that span to the Chiefs 176 — so basically a dead heat. Keep in mind though that the Chiefs faced Joe Burrow (x2), Trevor Lawrence, a resurgent Russell Wilson, and a previously top-six fantasy QB in Geno Smith. Compared to the Eagles facing Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, and an undermanned Daniel Jones (x2) as the biggest names in that stretch.

Next lets check on PPG Scored:

The thing we can take from this is that the Chiefs offense has been more steady in each game over the last nine-game span. On the other hand, Philadelphia has been up-and-down, in part thanks to Jalen Hurts missing a couple of games, but it’s also indication of how the Eagles have been much of the year. While they finished just over a point shy of the Chiefs in the PPG stat for the regular season, the offenses functioned far differently. Speaking of consistency, the Chiefs scored in at least three quarters in a game in every game this year regular or postseason. The Eagles on the other hand pulled of the at least three quarters feat just eight times in the regular season and in both playoff games. That’s a lot of streaky offense from the Eagles including a few games in which they scored in just one quarter. That could make things interesting especially with the Chiefs defense getting hot at the right time and at full strength.

It’s likely the game is decided on the ground so how do they stack up:

The Chiefs have the eighth-best rush defense in the league based on yards allowed per game. The Eagles have the fifth-best rushing attack in the league based on yards per game for. That’s a strength-on-strength match-up in this game so just how did the teams stack up in the last nine games? The Chiefs allowed an average of 114.6 yds/gm while the Eagles averaged a whopping 166.6 yards per game. However, just like the other categories Philadelphia is a bit all over the place with as many has 363 yards and as few as 67. They topped 250 yards thrice which is the same number of times they failed to record at least 90 yards. If the Chiefs can control the rushing game on defense this game has a different complexion and an edge to the Chiefs. However, if the Chiefs fail to stop the Eagles multi-pronged rushing attack, it could be a long time between seeing Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce et al. on the field.

Top Players for DFS for Super Bowl 57

Given all of the facts and data poured out above, it should be clear that this is a close match-up that will be decided in certain ways. So in that vein, who are the players that we should be looking to for DFS and prop plays on Sunday?

Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce

I know, I know, that’s the easy selection from this team. Here’s the thing though, it’s the best option. Even with Maddox questionable and Smith-Schuster, the typical slot receiver for the Chiefs, healthy, we still can’t trust him as much as Kelce. The Eagles may not have allowed a ton of points to tight ends this year but in fairness, they didn’t play any big name guys. Sure they played T.J. Hockenson and Dalton Schultz but not when they were being featured in offenses and the rest of the teams didn’t exactly feature the tight end. Kelce is a completely different target at the position. Even against teams that were good at stopping tight ends, Kelce still produced and if Maddox can’t go, that’s even worse news for the Eagles hopes of stopping a guy who has the second-most touchdowns in the postseason in NFL history. Patrick Mahomes role should be clear, he is the orchestrator of the offense even if he’s hobbled. Against the Bengals he posted 326 passing yards with half of a wide receiver corps. Enough said.

Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders

Sure, it’s a bit chalky to put both quarterbacks as the top plays but can we argue? Look at what the Eagles did without Hurts under center and we have our answer. Even if he’s not passing much, like he’s not been in the last three games (falling to top 160 yards since returning), his rushing upside gives him just that, upside. If the Eagles can impose their will on the O-line, it could be an easy day for Hurts trying to find his passing targets or space to run. However, if the Chiefs do manage to get pressure on him, which they’ve excelled at down the stretch, he could dump it off to Miles Sanders. Sanders has taken over the backfield in earnest this year and has been big down the stretch for the Eagles. He’s also a target out of the backfield which helps him in this game as the Chiefs are worst in the league in stopping receptions to running backs. Even if the Chiefs can slow down the rushing attack, it’s entirely likely the Eagles just keep leaning on it to protect Hurts’ shoulder and keep Mahomes and company off the field.