With NFL rosters being cut to 53 players we can now go full circle into drafting before Thursday night’s week one deadline. Be sure to check out last week’s Draft Review where I previously mentioned a few guys who I think offer incredible value in the later rounds of FFE drafts. With that said here are some more guys to target based on their current ADP:
Best Values
Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR): Over the weekend Fantasy Football Evolution sent out an e-mail highlighting some value based on their ADP research. It was similar to the purpose of this article and how last week’s piece was wrapped up. At the time of their email McCaffrey was going around 40th overall. In some of my most recent drafts he’s gone as high as 30th overall, but as low as 38th so his ADP is on the rise somewhat. But his play and projected workload definitely cater to FFE’s scoring. In season-long fantasy drafts McCaffrey’s ADP has skyrocketed all the way up to the early second round, even the late first round. Currently with FFE, you can get McCaffrey and his RB1 workload in the third round.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI): Fitzgerald, like McCaffrey, popped up in FFE’s values email that went out this past weekend. Despite his age, he’s recorded three straight seasons of 100+ receptions and 1,000+ receiving yards. He’s just a solid guy to own in PPR formats. The quality of quarterback play in Arizona will be suspect this season with Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen at the helm. But Fitzgerald has made due with what he’s had his entire career and 2018 should be no different. You can get Fitzgerald in the eighth or ninth round.
John Brown (WR – BAL): Brown’s sickle cell disease somewhat derailed his success in Arizona. Whether it’s the elevation, the heat, the humidity, etc. there are some people who think he’ll be better suited in Baltimore. I’m no expert, but I’ll buy into the medical jargon! Either way, reports surfaced early in training camp that he was developing a nice rapport with Joe Flacco . Additionally, Brown can be had in the 15th round in FFE drafts. I’m not 100% sold on Michael Crabtree as the clear-cut top option in the Ravens passing game, but even his ADP in the 11th round is tempting. Still, I’d rather take the later value with Brown.
Eric Ebron (TE – IND): Given the importance of the tight end position, and how fast they go in these drafts, Ebron is a nice late-round player to target. He never reached his potential in Detroit, but a change of scenery could do him some good. His success is dependent on Andrew Luck being healthy and ready to go. But head coach Frank Reich comes over from Philadelphia, an offense that featured the tight end frequently in the red zone. Ebron hit pay dirt with a score in Indy’s third preseason game and there’s a good chance they feature him in the passing game quite often. This is the kind of late round grab you should look for if you miss out on Rob Gronkowski , Travis Kelce , Zach Ertz , and Greg Olsen . Additionally look at Jordan Reed , Austin Seferian-Jenkins , and Tyler Eifert . There are concerns with all these guys, but they still feature upside and are being drafted after Ebron.
Jameis Winston (QB – TB): Winston realistically may not be available until week six of the season. He will be suspended for the first three games of the season, and then for week four Tampa will be coming off a Monday night game for a Sunday afternoon matchup in Chicago. So there’s some mild concern that the Bucs may just sit him because he may not be ready at that point. But Winston gets a bye week in the first stage and realistically will be Tampa’s starter for week six at the worst. You can get by without him for this stage of the contest as long as you can still get four wins in the first seven weeks and you have other options at quarterback. Once he’s back he could be a top ten quarterback rest of season. In my last FFE draft I took him in the tenth round and even that seemed like a bit of a reach because I believe I could’ve grabbed him in the 11th and maybe even the 12th rounds. That’s not terrible for a guy who could pay big dividends in stage three.
Alfred Morris and Matt Breida (RB – SF): With the injury to Jerick McKinnon there’s a big opportunity for work in the San Francisco backfield. There were already some concerns about whether McKinnon could handle a larger workload. Unfortunately a torn ACL will shut his season down before it begins. This presents opportunity for Alf and Breida. Breida is going in the 13th-15th rounds in FFE drafts and while Alfred Morris is sometimes going undrafted, he’s a nice little stash in this format. I might prefer Breida just a little bit more because of the PPR benefits, but they’re both very nice late round stashes.
Atlanta Falcons DST: Assuming all the elite DST’s go off the board before you make your late round picks, Atlanta’s defense is one I like targeting because I think they’re flying under the radar this year. I’m especially fond of their week one matchup against Philadelphia knowing that the Eagles will be without Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery . So that leaves Nick Foles to start and he didn’t look like the Super Bowl MVP that he was back in February. If you seem to miss out on the Falcons then you can also target Carolina, Baltimore, Houston, and New England. Those defenses also seem to be lingering towards the end of the draft.
No Interest Based on ADP
Evan Engram (TE – NYG): I am perplexed by this one because he went 37th overall in my most recent draft. He went ahead of Mike Evans , Amari Cooper , Kirk Cousins , Derrick Henry , Lamar Miller , and Alex Collins . He went ahead of other tight ends I’d probably prefer like Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen . Engram’s a great talent, but his success last season was only made possible because of numerous injuries to other position players on New York’s offense. With an improved offensive line and the addition of Saquon Barkley and return of Odell Beckham Jr., Engram’s numbers are likely to regress. Tight ends go fast and early in FFE, but this is one I’m not willing to take at the round three-four turn.
Alshon Jeffery (WR – PHI): If only he could stay healthy, but alas that’s rarely the case. Jeffery is a great receiver when he can get on the field. However, he’s already starting the 2018 season with an injury that could force him to miss the first two games. His FFE ADP currently has him going in the seventh round and if he were healthy and opening the season with the team then he’d be a great value. However, he’s not healthy, Carson Wentz still isn’t ready for contact, and Nick Foles looked pretty terrible in the preseason to boot. I’d rather take a shot on Nelson Agholor in the tenth round.
LeSean McCoy (RB – BUF): I do have some pause with this selection because there’s no denying the workload that will be there for him. Last season he saw an increase in rushing attempts, targets, and receptions from 2016 but that was because the Bills desperately needed to rely on him. And to an extent, they still have to. TyRod Taylor is gone and the offensive line is a mess. It’s possibly the worst O-line in the league and I’m guessing he’ll be running into a lot of eight-man fronts. Will the volume be there? Yes. But the protection will be pretty rough. McCoy’s been going in the fifth round in FFE drafts, which isn’t terrible. But at that spot you can get your hands on Derrick Henry , Stefon Diggs , or Lamar Miller .
Tom Brady (QB – NE): Gasp! Yes, I know. The GOAT and a personal hero of mine cracked this section. It’s not Brady who I’m doubting. But the talent around him to start the season might be the worst he’s had in years. Julian Edelman is suspended, plus Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are dealing with injuries. There’s no Brandin Cooks or Danny Amendola . He’ll primarily be targeting Chris Hogan , Rob Gronkowski , and maybe James White to start the 2018 campaign. Add in the fact that Brady’s fantasy numbers typically regress in December and they have a week 11 bye and all of a sudden the round two ADP becomes pretty risky. I’d rather wait two-to-three rounds and grab Matthew Stafford , Kirk Cousins , Drew Brees , or Philip Rivers .
Defenses/Special Teams Before Round Ten: Look, in traditional fantasy football drafts it’s suggested to wait until your last two picks to take a defense/kicker. And in FFE it’s still wise to wait on defenses and kickers. However, if there’s a defense you really like then go ahead and pull the trigger because a DST can easily put up 15-25 points in this format. However, I’ve seen a couple drafts where defenses are taken in the sixth and eighth rounds. See below:
As if Jacksonville in the eighth round wasn’t egregious enough, Philadelphia in the sixth is laugh out loud funny. Sure you’re drafting against computers but by no means should a DST go that early. The Eagles DST was drafted before Patrick Mahomes , Marquise Goodwin , Alex Smith , Brandin Cooks , Royce Freeman , and Golden Tate . With FFE you’ll have to take two DST’s so it helps to get a couple good ones. But find the value DST’s later on in the draft. Don’t miss out on good players in the mid-rounds by reaching for a defense.