Old Faces in New Places
This past NFL offseason was a wild one with huge NFL trades featuring major names, a busy NFL free agency period, and numerous retirement speculations. The impact these NFL transactions will have on the upcoming fantasy football season has already been felt with fantasy football player rankings constantly being adjusted and plenty of fantasy football mock drafts having been done to help establish player ADP. Let's take a look at the top names at each position that flipped teams this past NFL offseason!
Quarterbacks
The NFL offseason got off to a fast start with the Seahawks trading then franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos for a package that included tight end Noah Fant, quarterback Drew Lock, defensive tackle Shelby Harris and five draft pick. Wilson played just 14 games in 2021 due to injury but over those 14 games, he threw for 3,113 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. He moves to an offense that had DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to an offense that has a Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick at wide receiver as well as two very good running backs in Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, both of whom can catch the football out of the backfield. The Broncos have a new coaching staff in place heading into the 2022 season so many are hoping that the addition of Russell Wilson will mean the team's offense this season will be more pass-heavy as they utilize their skill position players with a downfield passing attack. Last year the fantasy football community was hoping that Seattle was going to “Let Russ Cook” and we were disappointed. Hopefully, the Broncos will let Wilson do just that in 2022.
It was an end of an era in Atlanta with Matt Ryan being traded by the Falcons to the Colts for a third-round pick. The 2016 MVP has put up decent numbers for the Falcons despite the team's lack of success and at times lack of healthy skill position players for Ryan to throw the football to. 2021 was one of the worst seasons for Ryan as he threw for just 3,968 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The move to the Colts is an interesting one. In terms of wide receivers, the team does have potential breakout candidate Michael Pittman and they invested a second-round pick in wide receiver Alec Pierce but this offense is largely centered around the running game with Jonathan Taylor leading the way. I have questions as to whether Ryan will really improve upon his 2021 numbers if the game plan is to run the football nearly 50-percent of the time like we saw last season.
Another season and another new team for Carson Wentz who spent just a single year with the Colts before being traded along with a second-round pick to the Commanders for three future draft picks. Wentz played all 17 games for the Colts last season and threw for 27 touchdowns with just seven interceptions but totaled only 3,563 passing yards. The Colts ran the ball the fifth most times last season but some of that was likely attributed to Wentz and his second half of the season struggles under center. The move to Washington is an interesting one as the team has some interesting skill position players such as Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, rookie Jahan Dotson and the eventually returning Logan Thomas for him to throw the football to. There is also Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic who can catch passes out of the backfield and rookie Brian Robinson Jr. who figures to make an impact as well. Washington may allow for Wentz to sling it a bit more this season but he is nothing more than a late-round flier in fantasy drafts this season.
Alright, you knew we were getting to this one eventually. There has been no more controversial player in football over the past two seasons than Deshaun Watson. I'm not going to talk about his legal troubles, those are settling themselves and he is due for a league disciplinary hearing soon where his likely suspension will be handed down. That said, IF Watson does see the football field this season the talent he has is undeniable. He is a top-five fantasy football talent and is going to an offense with plenty of skill position players at his disposal.
Though he is just a placeholder while the Falcons look for the new future franchise quarterback there will at least be some early season superflex appeal with Marcus Mariota given his elite rushing upside that he brings to the table. It's been a bit since we've seen Mariota as a full-time starting quarterback but for his career he has 77 touchdowns and 45 interceptions with a 62.8-percent career completion percentage. In his five years with the Titans, his per 17-game rushing averages come close to 400 yards. Back in 2020, we saw Derek Carr go down with an injury and Mariota stepped in against the Chargers and went 17-for-28 passing for 226 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding nine carries for 88 yards and a score. These are numbers we could very well see from Mariota this season.
Running Backs
The Miami Dolphins really shook up the offseason and new head coach Mike McDaniel was quick to make his imprint on the league. This offseason the Dolphins signed Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel to their roster that already included Myles Gaskin. Edmonds seems like the leader in the clubhouse to handle most of the work but is much more of a change of pace, pass-catching type running back than someone who can consistently carry it between the tackles. Raheem Mostert is another explosive player and is familiar with the system McDaniel is trying to implement from their days together with the 49ers but he is often injured. Speaking of being often injured, Sony Michel looked good for the Rams last season, totaling 845 yards and four touchdowns while adding 21 catches for 128 yards. Michel is the most built to handle the goal-to-go type of work for the Dolphins as long as his knees hold up long enough. Training camp will likely give us a much clearer picture when it comes to this dolphin's backfield so make sure you follow along for updates.
The Chiefs were another team that made quite a few moves this offseason and one of those moves was signing Ronald Jones in free agency. Jones had mixed levels of success during his time in Tampa Bay but ultimately saw his starting job taken over by Leonard Fournette. The Chiefs have gotten inconsistent production from Clyde Edwards-Helaire since drafting him a few years ago and Ronald Jones can bring a bit more size and explosiveness to this Kansas City backfield as long as he can both stay healthy and not fumble the football. It doesn't seem as if Jones has the team's starting running back job but should rotate in and out with CEH much like we saw from Darrell Williams over the past few seasons.
Some early reports out there are saying the Texans may lean on Marlon Mack early in the season while easing in rookie Dameon Pierce into the NFL workload. Mack saw very limited action last season as he returned from an injury that cost him all but one game of the 2020 season. Back in 2019, Mack ran for 1,091 yards while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The Texans are not a team expected to compete for much this season so it would certainly make sense to let Mack take the lead than burn out their rookie running back but this is certainly a position to watch this training camp to see if Mack does indeed hold onto the starting job.
Wide Receivers
One of the biggest surprises this offseason was when Davante Adams was traded from the Green Bay Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders shortly after Aaron Rodgers re-signed with the Packers. Many assumed Rogers coming back was a sign that Adams was going to remain in Green Bay but instead, he finds himself traded to Las Vegas to be reunited with his college quarterback Derek Carr. In 2021 Adams was among the league's top receivers once again, finishing with 123 receptions, 1,553 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He now moves to an offense that will be led by new head coach Josh McDaniels who had plenty of success in New England as the team's offensive coordinator when Tom Brady was under center. Carr has consistently been one of the league's better quarterbacks when it comes to completion percentage and last season he threw for a career-high 4,804 yards. It's difficult to see Adams putting up the same type of numbers with Carr that he had with Aaron Rodgers but Carr will finally have some elite-level talent around him so it's possible that Carr has himself a career year thanks to Adams now being in the mix and therefore Adams himself has another WR1 type season.
There was maybe no bigger disappointment in 2021 at the receiver position when it came to the production vs ADP than Allen Robinson. Robinson appeared in just 12 games for the Bears, finishing with just 38 catches for 410 yards and a touchdown. It was clear that Robinson was not happy with his role, there was some offseason turmoil between he and the team heading into the year and rookie quarterback Justin Fields had his own struggles when it came to connecting with Robinson. 2022 offers a big shot at redemption for Robinson as he joins the defending champion Los Angeles Rams. Robinson essentially replaces Robert Woods and Odel Beckham Jr.'s role in this offense and will play opposite of Cooper Kupp who was the league's top receiver last season. Matthew Stafford is the best quarterback that Robinson will have had the opportunity to play with to this point in his career but we've yet to see Robinson really be the WR2 on his team. Cooper Kupp is still going to get plenty of targets and this offense is certainly capable of supporting two 1,000-yard receivers but I don't know if we get WR1 numbers from Robinson this season given Kupp's presence.
A draft-day stunner! There were some rumors that the Titans may have looked to trade A.J. Brown after having issues with a contract extension and that move was made during the NFL draft with the Eagles landing their new WR1 to play alongside last year's first-round pick in DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. Brown is in an interesting spot this season as he moves from a run-heavy offense in Tennesee to another run-heavy offense in Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts is an exciting quarterback prospect with his ability to extend plays and big downfield arm but there are some questions pertaining to his accuracy. Brown had success with Ryan Tannehill under-center but injuries have cost him games in each of the last two years. If Hurts takes that leap forward in year three and Brown is able to stay on the field I think the sky is the limit for him this year.
I already told you the Dolphins made quite a few splashes this offseason but their biggest move was winning the Tyreek Hill sweepstakes as they acquired him from the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins also added Cedrik Wilson in free agency to fill their WR3 role but Hill is the prize and the one we will be focusing on here. To be honest, it's hard to see Hill continuing to produce at the levels we saw from him during his time in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback now that he has Tua Tagovailoa under-center here in Miami. Over the last four seasons, Hill has had a 17-game average of 83 receptions for 1,207 yards and 10 touchdowns. He comes to an offense that expects to focus on the running game given the San Fransico 49ers formula and he will also be competing with Jaylen Waddle for targets here as well. Both Hill and Waddle are going well ahead of Tua in fantasy drafts so if you believe in Hill you have to think Tua as a great late-round option as well. I'm just not too sure about that.
Another surprising trade during the NFL draft with the Ravens shipping Marquise Brown to the Cardinals. Arizona is going to be without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks of the season due to his PED suspension and Brown is coming off a career year that saw him catch 91 passes for 1,008 yards and six touchdowns. Brown should have had a few more touchdowns if not for a few drops on some downfield balls. Brown was not happy with the direction of the Raven's run-heavy offense and the idea that Rashod Bateman was likely going to overtake him as the top receiving target on the team. This move to Arizona is an exciting one as the Cardinals look to push the ball downfield and Kyler Murray's big arm should love the idea of having Marquise Brown blowing by defenders. Brown is a great pick in best ball this season because he will likely have a few big games mixed in with some inconsistent performances.
The Chiefs moved on from Tyreek Hill this offseason and also said goodbye to Byron Pringle but they then went on to bring in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. JuJu is coming off a tough year which saw him play just five games and it's no secret that the quarterback play in Pittsburgh was declining drastically over the past few seasons. Now getting to play with Patrick Mahomes makes Smith-Schuster one of the more appealing receivers to target in drafts this season in PPR formats. MVS may have only finished with 26 catches for 430 yards and three touchdowns last season but he had a few big games there during the middle of the year and should replace Tyreek Hill as the downfield threat for Mahomes. What's a bit more encouraging here is the size that MVS brings to this Chiefs offense as Mahomes is used to throwing to the 5'10 Tyreek Hill and now gets the 6-foot-4 Valdes-Scantling that has sub-4.40 speed as well.
Amari Cooper's trade to the Cleveland Browns was one of the first big moves of the 2022 NFL offseason. Soon after we saw the Browns make the move to acquire Deshaun Watson to be their new quarterback. The uncertainty around Watson has a direct impact on Cooper here as it's likely that Jacoby Brissett would be the Browns' QB should Watson be forced to miss any of this season. Cooper dealt with injury and inconsistency during his tenure with the Cowboys but there is no doubt when it comes to his talent and upside in this offense should Watson be the man under center for Cleveland this year.
While Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are getting all the love heading into the 2022 fantasy football season, the signing of Jamison Crowder should not be lost on fantasy football managers. Crowder very good slot receiver with reliable hands and would seamlessly fit into the role vacated by Cole Beasley whom we saw have 82 catches and 967 yards back in 2020 and another 82 catches last season though there was a big dip in yardage as he finished with just 693. With the Jets, Crowder had a three-year average of 80 catches for 841 yards and six touchdowns and those are numbers I feel are very repeatable in the Bills pass-heavy offense.
The Lions continue their rebuild with the signing of DJ Chark to a one-year deal in 2022. Detroit really struggled with wide receiver depth last season with injuries really plaguing their group which included losing both of their top free-agent signings in Breshard Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Chark appeared in just four games for the Jaguars last season due to injury and missed three games the year prior as well. He signed just a one-year deal with the Lions and will be given the opportunity to be a starting receiver in this offense.
The rare inter-division trade happened this offseason with the Dolphins trading DeVante Parker to the Patriots. Parker immediately becomes the most “talented” receiver on the New England roster but whether or not Parker is on the field enough to be the most consistent receiver on the Patriots roster remains to be seen. With Josh McDaniels now coaching in Las Vegas there are plenty of questions surrounding the Patriots offense this season but second-year quarterback Mac Jones has come into this offseason looking noticeably thinner and all reports from Patriots camp as that he is looking like a completely different player than he was during his rookie season. Jones is also working with noted throwing guru Tom House who also notably worked with Tom Brady to help improve his throwing strength as well. Jones was one of the more accurate passers in football last season and Parker is one of the league's best-contested catch receivers. If Mac Jones takes that step forward and Parker stays healthy we could see Parker having one of the best seasons of his career. (Full Disclosure: I'm a Patriots Fan)
Jarvis Landry going to the Saints was quite the interesting move as the team still has Michael Thomas and used a first-round pick on receiver Chris Olave. Jameis Winston is coming back from a torn-ACL so there is some uncertainty there as well. All of those factors need to be considered when it comes to Jarvis Landry and his fantasy football value. Now, he gets away from Baker Mayfield and that run-heavy offense in Cleveland so there is certainly the potential for a nice season here but I don't think Landry is going out there and having a career year this year. He is a nice PPR-format wide receiver that could be a WR2 at his ceiling.
The Jaguars went and paid a lot of money to Christian Kirk this offseason and also went and signed Zay Jones as well. Both join a receiving group that already has Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault as well as Travis Etienne who is going to be used all over the field. I don't find Kirk or Jones to be real needle movers though both had solid seasons in 2021 with Kirk posting 77 receptions for 982 yards and five touchdowns. Kirk is being paid like the Jaguars WR1 and he will likely get the first opportunity to fill that role.
I think it was a surprise to many to see Robert Woods not just traded but then on the field and making cuts during team mini-camp after tearing his ACL in the middle of last season. How Woods will look come Week 1 is still a mystery and he is also competing with rookie Treylon Burks who was the prized receiver pick that came from the A.J. Brown trade but the veteran receiver may be leaned upon early in this offense by Ryan Tannehill. Woods is really nothing more than a flier for me as my expectations for him are limited.
Chris Godwin is not expected to be ready until the middle of the season and Rob Gronkowski just retired. Russell Gage is now firmly in play with Tom Brady back under center for the Buccaneers this season. Gage was the de facto WR1 for the Falcons last season and finished with 66 catches for 770 yards and four touchdowns. The year prior Gage finished with 72 catches for 786 yards and four scores here as well with Matt Ryan throwing the football. Given that Gage is expected to play a big part in one of the league's best offenses he figures to be a popular pick this season in fantasy football drafts.
Tight Ends
Noah Fant was the big-name player going back to Seattle in the Russell Wilson deal that also included Drew Lock and Shelby Harris. Fant now goes to an offense with the same question marks at quarterback that he just had when in Denver where Lock split time with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Fant also needs to compete with DK Metcalf and Tyler Locket for targets as well. Without an upgrade at quarterback, possibly Baker Mayfield if traded by Cleveland, or an increased target share over Metcalf and Lockett it seems difficult to imagine much fantasy upside from Fant this year.
Everything you need to know about Evan Engram and his fit with the Jacksonville Jaguars can be found in the linked article below from Andrew Cooper who is the noted “Tight End Whisper” and Evan Engram superfan! Give it a read.
Gerald Everett signed a two-year deal with offseason with the Chargers to be their starting tight end. We were hopeful for a breakout season from Everett during his tenure with the Seahawks after leaving the Rams but that was not to be. At best Everett is the fourth receiving target on this Chargers team behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler so the upside we would like to see is probably not here either but Everett does have great metrics that would make him a mismatch in coverage and a good red zone threat. It's also a nice bonus that Justin Herbert would be the best quarterback he's had the opportunity to play with.
There is a path for Austin Hooper to be a top-two target in this Titans offense this season with Robert Woods coming back from a torn-ACL and the potential learning curve for rookie Treylon Burks. Now, this is still a run-heavy offense but we've seen Hooper excel when given a high volume of targets and he is really good in the red zone as well. He is nothing more than a dart throw but one that could payoff as a TE2 option on your roster.
As a Patriots fan it pains me to say that I've loved what the Jets have done this offseason and that includes bringing in C.J. Uzomah to be a pass-catching tight end option for Zach Wilson this season. The team also signed tight end Tyler Conklin who profiles much better as a blocking tight end when it comes to the duo. Uzomah finished with a career-best 493 yards and five touchdowns last season with the Bengals. He may see a slight boost in those numbers this year but he will be competing for targets with the likes of Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson this season.
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