AFC West Coaching Systems

.As you continue to read through the NFL Coaching Systems series here in the FREE Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Football Draft Guide, we hope you are taking notes and making the proper adjustments to your fantasy football draft strategy and potential draft targets. Match-ups are key in the NFL and knowing who is running what system can lead you to the understanding of which teams are expected to score the most points. If you know who is scoring more, then you know which players make for better targets. This is what I do every year when setting up my fantasy football player rankings and as NFL training camps start to open, I receive more clarity on certain roles within a team and I make my changes accordingly.

This is what you should be doing as well. Read the information, digest it, make your own notes and then maybe head into a fantasy football mock draft or something and test it out. We still have more than a month before the 2023 NFL season starts up, so take your time and be thorough. The payoff at the end of the season is worth it.

In case you missed the previous divisions:

• AFC East (plus glossary of terms)
• AFC North
• AFC South
• NFC East
• NFC North
• NFC South
• NFC West

AFC West Coaching Systems

Denver Broncos

Offensive Breakdown

The Broncos received a full makeover in the offseason as they not only brought in new coaches and coordinators, but a new field general in Russell Wilson as well. The early speculation as to what type of offense new head coach Nathaniel Hackett and offensive coordinator Justin Outten, led many to believe the Broncos would be running the same offense the Packers have been running over the past few seasons, but while the scheme will be based in the west coast style of passing, Hackett and Outten are making adjustments based on the skill-set of their personnel.

Let’s start with the passing. Short, high-percentage passing will be highly utilized to help move the chains, but given Wilson’s style and his desire to roll out – to put it bluntly, he doesn’t like to throw to the middle of the field because he’s too short to see over all the linemen – you can expect him to pepper the sidelines rather than use the slants and crossing routes we tend to see more often in the traditional west coast scheme. If the defense tries to take that away from him, he’ll move inside some, but his receivers know to immediately stretch the field out more and he’ll hit them downfield. 

Another difference between the Green Bay system and what you will see in Denver is the switch to an outside zone running scheme. An inside zone scheme tends to rely on more power running and given the skill-set of Javonte Williams and the age and mileage on Melvin Gordon, the outside zone fits significantly better. Williams has the initial burst and the speed to take it to the outside, beat the edge rushers and take the ball up the field. He also has the ability to make the cut inside, should it be necessary. Gordon will bet his runs between the tackles as a change-of-pace, but the days of a 50/50 split are behind us. 

Hackett and Outten are also going to use RPO a lot more, something Wilson is all too familiar with from his work in Seattle. His ability to read the defense, roll out and see the field have always made him “DangerRuss,” but now imagine being a linebacker trying to figure out if he’s going to take off himself, pitch it back to Williams, hit Jerry Jeudy on a quick sideline route or throw it deep to Courtland Sutton. This offense has tremendous potential and should match up very well against the other powerhouses in this division.   

Players Who Best Fit the System: Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton

Defensive System: 3-4 base with multi-front looks and a mix of zone coverages

Defensive Breakdown: 

The Broncos made a wise move bringing in former Rams secondary coach Ejiro Evero in as their new defensive coordinator as he will maintain some consistency between the old and new regime. Evero spent 2011 through 2015 with the 49ers and during his last two years in the Bay Area, he served as a defensive assistant to then 49ers defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, who installed his defensive scheme here in Denver over the last few years. Evero is going to keep the scheme relatively the same to ease with the transition, but also because it’s worked so well in Denver over the last three years.

Up front the Broncos will use a 3-4 base but will mix up the looks depending on what they are seeing in the weekly and then in-game match-ups. Evero is likely to be a little more aggressive with his blitzes than Fangio was, but they also added a strong run-stopper on the defensive line in D.J. Jones and a strong outside-rusher in Randy Gregory, so they can apply heavier pressure without overcommitting to a blitz. If Jones and NT Mike Purcell can clog the middle, then Gregory and Bradly Chubb should be able to apply more pressure and the Broncos won’t have to sell out the secondary and continuously blitz the safeties.

The secondary will work primarily out a Cover-2 base, but we can also expect to see a lot of Cover-1 and Cover-3 zones as well. Having strong corners will allow Evero to be much more flexible with his safeties and having a guy like Justin Simmons in the defensive backfield gives the team a significant number of options. Expect Evero to disguise everything behind the Cover-2 set-up and find a variety of ways to move his inside linebackers and safeties in and out of coverage depending on the situation. If you’re in an IDP league, this secondary could prove fruitful with as many ball-hawks as we see here. 

Players Who Best Fit the System: D.J. Jones, Randy Gregory, Justin Simmons, Patrick Surtain

Kansas City Chiefs

Offensive Breakdown

The base of Andy Reid’s offense is actually quite simple. He likes a high-volume ground game with your typical West Coast-style passing (short, quick routes) that set up play-action and larger plays downfield. Where it gets confusing for the opposition is in all the pre-snap motion they like to use to keep the defense on its heels and looking in multiple directions.

From a fantasy perspective, this is exactly the type of offense you want to buy into. Over the years, we’ve watched Reid develop some amazing fantasy players from Jamaal Charles and Priest Holmes to Kareem Hunt and Damien Williams. Even Spencer Ware flashed some talent inside this system. Reid’s offensive line is usually versatile and can open up plenty of running lanes as well as pull to the outside and block downfield. Reid took great care in revamping his offensive line last offseason, bringing in Orlando Brown and Joe Thuney to stabilize the left side of the line. Veteran Andrew Wylie has become the staple at right tackle while second-year starters Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith have proven to be valuable commodities as well. Now the only issue is figuring out which running back you want to draft in fantasy.

While in years past, Reid has vaulted the value of one running back, we could be looking at a committee situation again due to the personnel. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has proven he can go between the tackles and pick up yards after contact, his pass-blocking has been suspect, at best, and Reid has been forced into using added personnel. This is why they brought in Ronald Jones and retained Jerick McKinnon. Jones could blossom if he can shake off his stint with the Bucs, but until that is proven, Reid will simply rotate guys in. 

As far as the passing attack goes, Reid is a big fan of the short, high-percentage throws of a west cost system, but expects his quarterback to lead his receivers and for his receivers to gain enough separation that they can pick up extra yardage after the catch. From there, the deep shots downfield tend to open up. Patrick Mahomes has excelled in both departments and even though he loses Tyreek Hill this year, he still has enough weapons at his disposal to post fantastic numbers.

Players Who Best Fit the System: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman

Defensive System: 4-3 base with some multi-front looks and a mix of man and Cover-4 zone

Defensive Breakdown: 

In 2019, the Chiefs made a bold move changing defensive coordinators, going from long-time NFL coaching veteran Bob Sutton to a well-travelled Steve Spagnuolo. Spags found tremendous success during his tenure as the Giants DC and is often credited with being the guy behind that huge Super Bowl upset of the Patriots that cost Bill Belichick and Tom Brady their perfect season.

The Chiefs moved to a four-man front with a Cover-4 base as Spags likes to put a ton of pressure on the opposing quarterback. The blitzing was aggressive and, in the end, the Chiefs seemed to solve their issues in pass coverage. In fact, they finished sixth overall in pass-coverage in 2020. Unfortunately, it was a detriment to their run-stopping abilities, as evidenced by their ranking of 29^th in the league on the ground. Last season saw some improvements across the board, but the fact is, the Chiefs offense is so potent, it forces opposing teams to take more chances downfield and, as we’ve seen in the past, it can be quite taxing on the defense, particularly in pass coverage.   

Players Who Best Fit the System: Frank Clark, Chris Jones, Justin Reid

Las Vegas Raiders

Offensive Breakdown

While the OG Mad Genius will always be Bill Belichick, something rubbed off on Josh McDaniels and the offense he has created for the Raiders is going to end up being the system everyone and their grandma is going to want to run in the future. If they can pull off what McDaniels is hoping to do, then guys like Mike Lombardi (OC), Bo Hardegree (QB Coach) and Kennedy Polamalu (RB Coach) are all going to land bigger coaching gigs down the road. You know how everyone wants to hire away from Sean McVay? This looks like it could be a similar situation.

First off, just like he ran with the Patriots, McDaniels will base his system in the Erhardt-Perkins scheme, but that’s probably more for the verbiage and the interchangeable weapons at the quarterback’s disposal. The passing attack will feature some spread offense looks as well as some west coast passing elements. Where it starts to get tricky is in the fact that we’ll see a variety of personnel packages which will then feature a ton of pre-snap motion to force the defense to tip its hand. Once that happens, McDaniels has it set up where the quarterback can call on multiple interpretations of the play while the receivers have multiple routes to run per play and can choose which one to run based on the variation called by the quarterback and what they see from the defensive coverage. Clear as mud? I thought so. This is the ultimate match-up scheme where defenses are going to be doing a whole lot of guessing.

On the ground, the Raiders will feature a combination of both outside zone runs and power/gap runs, the latter being right in the wheelhouse of Josh Jacobs. The situation and down will dictate what they do and while they have Kenyan Drake and Zamir White, they also want Jacobs to stay involved on all concepts to the point where defenses will not be able to guess the play based on the Raiders personnel on the field.

Keep in mind, despite all the craziness we could see from this Raiders offense, they are still going to be considered a run-first team. Derek Carr excels out of play-action and we can expect to see a lot of it. Again, if they can pull this off this season, opposing teams’ eyes are going to pop out of their heads.  

Players Who Best Fit the System: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Darren Waller

Defensive System: 3-4 base with some multi-fronts and a Cover-4 zone

Defensive Breakdown: 

Former Patriots assistant Patrick Graham takes over as the Raiders defensive coordinator and he, like McDaniels, will maneuver players around based on situational moments and week-to-week, play-to-play match-ups. The multi-front looks will be interesting to watch as the current personnel is being moved all around and asked to do different things from which they have been used to doing. The key for Graham is to always have five defensive backs in the secondary as that gives him incredible flexibility with his safeties while also finding a variety of ways to match up against different passing schemes. It will be innovative, to say the least, so expect to hear about some growing pains during camp which may even trickle into the regular season. No one is going to panic if they struggle early, but look for this defense to surprise people later in the season.

Players Who Best Fit the System: Chandler Jones, Trevon Moehrig, Jonathan Abram

Los Angeles Chargers

Offensive Breakdown

Welcome to Year 2 of the Joe Lombardi offense in Los Angeles. I was incredibly bullish on all things Chargers last year and with almost all the key components still in place, I am routinely going back to well in all of my fantasy leagues and even with my early team/player props for the season. Especially with how explosive this division has become, the Chargers offense kicking it into high gear is going to be huge, once again, for fantasy owners.

I almost don’t even need to re-write what I wrote last season when Lombardi brought the Saints offensive scheme with him because, not only did it work beautifully, but it will continue to do so here in 2022. It’s a west coast-based scheme that uses plenty of outside zone runs as well as using its running backs as pass-catchers. Think Alvin Kamara role but Austin Ekeler in person. The Chargers revamped their offensive line during the offseason and have styled it much in the way the Saints did over the years. Seems like a win for those drafting Ekeler in the late-first/early second round.

The heavy run scheme is going to set up the pass and this is where things get interesting. Keenan Allen is likely to remain Herbert’s security blanket, but this offense traditionally funnels most of the targets towards the X receiver. That was Michael Thomas in New Orleans and that’s Mike Williams here in L.A. I did say last year that you can’t expect Williams to suddenly be peppered with double-digit targets on the regular, but I did expect an increased workload and an expanded route tree. Both happened and the results were glorious.

The one noticeable change come at tight end where Gerald Everett replaces Jared Cook who had experience in the system and with Lombardi when they were all together in New Orleans. Everett should be considered a candidate for the 500-600 yards and maybe a half-dozen touchdowns like Cook, though he does have more speed and versatility which could help him blossom even more.

Players Who Best Fit the System: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

Defensive System: 3-4 base with multi-front looks and a mix of Cover-2 and man

Defensive Breakdown: 

This is where Staley makes his mark regarding schemes in Los Angeles. He calls the plays on defense and this is his scheme. Renaldo Hill, who worked alongside Staley in Denver, will continue to focus more on the secondary and mapping out the coverage. Staley likes versatility in his defenders and may shift around his linebackers at times to get them on the line to help stop the run or add an extra pass-rusher. However, they brought in Sebastian Joseph-Day, who Staley knows from their days together with the Rams, and he and Jerry Tillery will be tasked with stopping the run, while the tandem of Joey Bosa and newly-acquired Khalil Mack will handle the pass-rush primarily. The rest of the front seven will fill in around them.

The key in the secondary is going to be how the safeties play. Staley likes using two-high safeties depending on the match-ups and will put a lot of coverage-reading into the hands of Derwin James who will direct traffic in the zones. They will also shift to man coverage a lot as well with Asante Samuel and former Patriot J.C. Jackson being strong options on the outside. They also brought in veteran corner Bryce Callahan, so he and Derwin James should be your most versatile guys over the middle.

Players Who Best Fit the System: Joey Bosa, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Derwin James

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