2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: Stefon Diggs

Switching teams is never easy, and doing it in the untraditional COVID offseason of 2020 didn’t make things any easier. Also, going from the Vikings to a sometimes inaccurate Josh Allen in Buffalo wasn’t exactly reassuring for fantasy managers looking to draft Stefon Diggs. When he was traded to Buffalo, the main positive that most could hang their hat on was that he was going to be the unquestioned top receiver in the passing game. However, how fruitful would it be? Josh Allen had yet to complete more than 60 percent of his passes in a season and the Bills didn’t rank outside of the bottom third (28th and 24th to be exact) in either of the two prior seasons in total pass attempts. Everything fell into place and the perfect storm occurred. Allen became elite, the Bills’ middling run game forced them to throw it a ton and Diggs got the massive workload that he wanted and deserved. He caught 127 of his 166 targets for 1,535 yards and found the end zone eight times, finishing the year as the WR3 in PPR formats.

He amassed a massive 29 percent target share last year and was the unquestioned, clear-cut WR1 for this team, and many fantasy managers for that fact. Brian Daboll did an exceptional job with the Buffalo offense, and allowed Josh Allen to build his confidence and then systematically take their chances downfield. There’s nothing wrong with taking what the defense gives you, and Diggs’ exceptional route running ability opened things up in the short-to-intermediate game for the Buffalo offense. Diggs is a guy that can make the big play downfield, and he showcased that during his time in Minnesota, but Daboll, Allen and the Bills didn’t pigeonhole him into just an “over the top” guy. Take a look at the percentage of his targets in relation to how many yards downfield they were:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Less than 10 percent of his targets were 20 or more yards downfield, which is a substantial drop off from recent years. The jump in the intermediate game (10-19 yards) is a welcomed addition to his route tree, because when one runs routes like Diggs runs routes, that area of the field allows him to put defenders on skates when there is minimal safety help. To hammer the point home, in the 10-19 yard range, he posted a 99.2 receiving grade and had a 125.6 passer rating when targeted, per PFF. Exceptional. Diggs is so much more than just a vertical threat, and Buffalo utilized him to his full potential.

On top of where they looked at Diggs, where he lined up was also an interesting development.

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

He lined up more in the slot than ever before, and subsequently, less out wide. All he did in 2020 out of the slot was post a solid 1.79 yards per route run, 7.8 average depth of target (aDOT) and caught 75 percent of his targets, per Pro Football Focus. Josh Allen had a 120.6 passer rating when targeting Diggs in the slot. For frame of reference…

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Is he the league’s best or most dynamic option out of the slot? No, but he’s darn good there, and the marks above show that.

It cannot be stated enough about how good Diggs is as a route runner. Buffalo utilizing him at all levels of the field is a cheat code. Honestly, Minnesota was doing opposing defenses favors, to an extent, by putting over 30 percent of his targets either 20+ yards downfield or behind the line of scrimmage in 2018 and 2019.

Courtesy of Next Gen Stats

He continues to create separation and he took it to a higher level in his first year with the Bills. Don’t be surprised if this mark jumps again, as he continues to wreak havoc on opposing secondaries.

In 2018 and 2019, Diggs averaged about 16.5 fantasy points per game (PPR) with Kirk Cousins under center. In his first year with the Bills, it was around 20 fantasy points per game (PPR). Also, he finally got the workload he deserved, and he flourished. Only Davante Adams and Michael Thomas had a higher WOPR than Diggs last year, and he had second most AirYAC (Air Yards + yards after catch), per RotoViz.

DeAndre Hopkins, Adams and Michael Thomas get a lot of talk about being the best wide receiver in the league, but after the 2020 season, Diggs entered the conversation. He was a monster in 2020, but since the start of the 2018 season, he ranks rather high in many categories:

• 4th-most targets
• 5th-most receptions
• 5th-most receiving yards
• 6th-most air yards
• WR4 (PPR)

After ending the year as the WR3 in 2020, he could ascend to the overall WR1 this season. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders should help Diggs, as another weapon can take some of the attention away from the star wideout. In Buffalo’s pass-first offense, there are plenty of targets to go around, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t average double-digit targets per game again in 2021. The combination of his floor and upside in this offense make him a legitimate threat for the overall WR1 in 2021.

Statistical Credits:
Profootballfocus.com
rotoviz.com
pro-football-reference.com