2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: Stefon Diggs
Published: Aug 10, 2021
Switching teams is never easy, and doing it in the untraditional COVID offseason of 2020 didn’t make things any easier. Also, going from the Vikings to a sometimes inaccurate Josh Allen in Buffalo wasn’t exactly reassuring for fantasy managers looking to draft Stefon Diggs. When he was traded to Buffalo, the main positive that most could hang their hat on was that he was going to be the unquestioned top receiver in the passing game. However, how fruitful would it be? Josh Allen had yet to complete more than 60 percent of his passes in a season and the Bills didn’t rank outside of the bottom third (28th and 24th to be exact) in either of the two prior seasons in total pass attempts. Everything fell into place and the perfect storm occurred. Allen became elite, the Bills’ middling run game forced them to throw it a ton and Diggs got the massive workload that he wanted and deserved. He caught 127 of his 166 targets for 1,535 yards and found the end zone eight times, finishing the year as the WR3 in PPR formats.
He amassed a massive 29 percent target share last year and was the unquestioned, clear-cut WR1 for this team, and many fantasy managers for that fact. Brian Daboll did an exceptional job with the Buffalo offense, and allowed Josh Allen to build his confidence and then systematically take their chances downfield. There’s nothing wrong with taking what the defense gives you, and Diggs’ exceptional route running ability opened things up in the short-to-intermediate game for the Buffalo offense. Diggs is a guy that can make the big play downfield, and he showcased that during his time in Minnesota, but Daboll, Allen and the Bills didn’t pigeonhole him into just an “over the top” guy. Take a look at the percentage of his targets in relation to how many yards downfield they were:
| 20+ yards | 10-19 yards | Less than 10 yards | Behind LOS | |
| 2018 | 16.3% | 18.4% | 50.4% | 14.9% |
| 2019 | 31.9% | 18.7% | 47.3% | 2.2% |
| 2020 | 9.9% | 32.7% | 50.6% | 6.8% |
Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
Less than 10 percent of his targets were 20 or more yards downfield, which is a substantial drop off from recent years. The jump in the intermediate game (10-19 yards) is a welcomed addition to his route tree, because when one runs routes like Diggs runs routes, that area of the field allows him to put defenders on skates when there is minimal safety help. To hammer the point home, in the 10-19 yard range, he posted a 99.2 receiving grade and had a 125.6 passer rating when targeted, per PFF. Exceptional. Diggs is so much more than just a vertical threat, and Buffalo utilized him to his full potential.
On top of where they looked at Diggs, where he lined up was also an interesting development.
| Slot% | Wide% | |
| 2018 | 22.3% | 76.7% |
| 2019 | 16.7% | 83.0% |
| 2020 | 31.9% | 68.0% |
Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
He lined up more in the slot than ever before, and subsequently, less out wide. All he did in 2020 out of the slot was post a solid 1.79 yards per route run, 7.8 average depth of target (aDOT) and caught 75 percent of his targets, per Pro Football Focus. Josh Allen had a 120.6 passer rating when targeting Diggs in the slot. For frame of reference…
| Y/RR | aDOT | Reception% | Passer Rating When Targeted | |
| Diggs | 1.79 | 7.8 | 75.0% | 120.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1.73 | 13.4 | 64.8% | 117.8 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1.84 | 6.7 | 77.3% | 92.7 |
Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
Is he the league’s best or most dynamic option out of the slot? No, but he’s darn good there, and the marks above show that.
It cannot be stated enough about how good Diggs is as a route runner. Buffalo utilizing him at all levels of the field is a cheat code. Honestly, Minnesota was doing opposing defenses favors, to an extent, by putting over 30 percent of his targets either 20+ yards downfield or behind the line of scrimmage in 2018 and 2019.
| Average Cushion (Yards) | Average Separation (Yards) | |
| 2018 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| 2019 | 4.6 | 2.5 |
| 2020 | 5.5 | 3.0 |
Courtesy of Next Gen Stats
He continues to create separation and he took it to a higher level in his first year with the Bills. Don’t be surprised if this mark jumps again, as he continues to wreak havoc on opposing secondaries.
In 2018 and 2019, Diggs averaged about 16.5 fantasy points per game (PPR) with Kirk Cousins under center. In his first year with the Bills, it was around 20 fantasy points per game (PPR). Also, he finally got the workload he deserved, and he flourished. Only Davante Adams and Michael Thomas had a higher WOPR than Diggs last year, and he had second most AirYAC (Air Yards + yards after catch), per RotoViz.
DeAndre Hopkins, Adams and Michael Thomas get a lot of talk about being the best wide receiver in the league, but after the 2020 season, Diggs entered the conversation. He was a monster in 2020, but since the start of the 2018 season, he ranks rather high in many categories:
- 4th-most targets
- 5th-most receptions
- 5th-most receiving yards
- 6th-most air yards
- WR4 (PPR)
After ending the year as the WR3 in 2020, he could ascend to the overall WR1 this season. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders should help Diggs, as another weapon can take some of the attention away from the star wideout. In Buffalo’s pass-first offense, there are plenty of targets to go around, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t average double-digit targets per game again in 2021. The combination of his floor and upside in this offense make him a legitimate threat for the overall WR1 in 2021.
Statistical Credits:
Profootballfocus.com
rotoviz.com
pro-football-reference.com
Player News
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ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.