The Carson Wentz era in Philadelphia officially came to an end in the offseason, but the writing was on the wall at the end of the 2020 season. After a decorated college career, Jalen Hurts took over down the stretch, losing three of the team’s final four games. The rookie’s legs made him an appealing fantasy quarterback, as his first two starts resulted in a whopping 29 carries for 169 yards, including 106 yards against the Saints! Over the final four weeks of the season, Hurts was the QB6, averaging over 24 fantasy points per game. His ability to run the football has fantasy managers excited about his 2021 outlook, but how he progresses with his arm is the real key to unlocking fantasy stardom. Can he do it? That’s the big question and a very, very valid one at that.

Hurts was a QB1 in three of his final four games of the year, per RotoViz, thanks largely to running for the second-most run yards amongst all quarterbacks in that span, trailing only Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. He also threw for the 14th-most yards and had the eighth-highest mark in terms of fantasy points per dropback, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). There were some positives for Hurts at the end of the year, which was the catalyst for the 2021 hype, but we simply just can’t ignore some of the glaring negatives.

Yes, he ran for the second-most yards and ranked within the top 15 for passing yards, but his 51.9 percent completion percentage was easily the lowest amongst qualified quarterbacks. Furthermore, his 65.8 percent adjusted completion percentage was third-worst, besting only the likes of Mason Rudolph (64.9%) and Colt McCoy (64.7%), per PFF. As a pure passer, he’s unrefined and needs to be polished. Like most quarterbacks, the further the ball traveled, the more issues he had, but overall, his numbers downfield were unimpressive and raise serious concerns in 2021. Here are his numbers from his final four games of the year:

 % of AttemptsCompletion %TD/INT Ratio
Behind LOS14.3%89.5%1:0
0-9 Yards33.1%61.4%1:1
10-19 Yards22.6%66.7%2:0
20+ Yards13.5%27.8%1:2

Information from PFF

Again, he was QB6 over the final four weeks of the season, but his fantasy points from his legs really boosted that. Just his passing numbers had him as the QB18 in that same four-game span. His four starts at the end of the year produced 98.5 fantasy points, of which 53.8 came from his passing numbers, meaning that 45.38 percent of his fantasy points in those four games came from his rushing numbers, per PFF. For frame of reference, there were only three quarterbacks in 2020 who had over one-third of their total fantasy points from their rushing numbers.

Information from PFF

Is this necessarily a bad thing? I’d lean no, but Hurts is nowhere near the passer that Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson are, so to me, there’s a lot of volatility with Hurts in 2021. If he can’t develop as a passer, his rushing numbers become less of an accentuator to his overall numbers and more of a necessity to sustaining week-to-week value. “But Colby, he had two games where he threw for over 300 yards!?” Great, he did it against the Cowboys and Cardinals. 

What about the Washington game? 72 yards and a pick. Two rushing touchdowns saved the day.

What about the New Orleans game? 167 yards. 106 rushing yards saved the day.

What about the fact that he didn’t complete more than 57 percent of his passes in any of his final five games? There’s a lot of development that needs to happen so that his legs aren’t saving the fantasy day every week. Yes, Hurts has the ability to be one of the more lucrative quarterbacks from a fantasy perspective with his ability to rack up points on the ground, but if he doesn’t develop as a passer, the rushing component becomes a necessity versus a luxury.

The last two things working against Hurts are that he has a bad offensive line that doesn’t figure to be much better, and he’s learning a second offensive system in as many seasons. Let’s start with the first point. Philadelphia’s offensive line figures to struggle yet again in 2021, and last year, he completed just 31.9 percent of his passes when he was under pressure, per PFF. Most quarterbacks do worse when pressured compared to when they aren’t, but that’s a porous completion percentage regardless. In terms of developing as a passer, when he wasn’t blitzed, he completed just 49.5 percent of his passes, and posted a 2:3 TD/INT ratio, per PFF. Interesting. When the opposition didn’t send extra people, and they wanted to keep him in the pocket, where he couldn’t make off-script plays, he struggled. This is something to watch in 2021. Additionally, per PFF, only Patrick Mahomes was responsible for more pressures over the final four weeks of the season than Hurts. So, the young quarterback is playing behind a bad offensive line, and also is responsible for some of the pressures/sacks. Not great.

To the latter point, he gets a more regular offseason and preseason with some of the COVID-19 protocols being removed, but it’s a new offensive system and I’m sick of hearing that Hurts will definitely develop because new Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen worked wonders with Justin Herbert. Stop it. Hurts can’t match Herbert’s ability to throw the football and is not even close.

The Eagles are committed to Hurts’ growth, and even added DeVonta Smith in this year’s draft to help bolster an otherwise putrid receiving crew. There are still too many questions surrounding Hurts’ weapons. Can Jalen Reagor stay healthy and perform? Is Zach Ertz still going to be on the team? Dallas Goedert and Smith should be good, and Miles Sanders is a weapon out of the backfield. The team added Kenneth Gainwell in the draft, and with how much Hurts lived right around the line of scrimmage, another receiving back makes sense.

I have my reservations as to whether or not Hurts can develop as a passer, but there’s no denying that Philadelphia will use his legs to their advantage. He’s currently going as QB11 in NFFC drafts, but that’s just too rich for my blood. This is a bit of an exaggeration, but if you want a below-average passer who can rack up fantasy points with his legs, why not wait about 130 picks and take Taysom Hill?

Yes, Hurts has a more guaranteed role than Hill, but you get my point. Hurts won’t completely bust, but there are too many glaring concerns as a passer that could inhibit his growth and impede his path to fantasy stardom. Also, the more tape that gets out there, the growing pains will only strengthen for the young signal-caller, and a lack of quality weapons won’t exactly make things easier for him. For me, drafting Hurts in re-draft with the hopes of being an every-week starter lends itself to inconsistent results, but in best ball formats, I can live with the inconsistency.


Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football
rotoviz.com