Following Coaching Movement Helps Reveal Early-Season Fantasy Football Sleepers
If you are a Fantasy Alarm subscriber and have been following me on the site formerly known as Twitter (@rotobuzzguy), then you probably already know where you can find more of my work. I host the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Monday through Friday from 5-7pm ET as well as Sunday mornings at 10am ET. I host Alarm Fantasy Football and Getting Buzzed on the Fantasy Alarm YouTube page and you can also find my work in the New York Post. I have been writing over there for the past decade, doing both fantasy football and fantasy baseball, and while the pieces aren’t in-depth think-pieces, they do offer strong advice for in-season strategy and waiver claims.
The following piece is set to appear in the Post this weekend, but I wanted to share it over here because I believe this is strong advice for those looking for waiver wire help heading into the NFL Week 2 games. It is also very much on-brand if you’ve read the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. Bookmark my author page in the Post to see future articles, but for now, enjoy (and use) this one a little ahead of time.
Following Coaching Movement Helps Reveal Early-Season Fantasy Football Sleepers
One of the difficulties in understanding how players will perform this early in the season is the lack of usable year-to-year data. We have five new head coaches with 16 new offensive coordinators, all of whom want to put their own personal stamp on the team’s offense. Determining which players will thrive and which ones become square pegs being jammed into round holes takes a few games to gather the full picture. Fortunately, the NFL is a copycat league, so while you may not know which players are immediate fits, you can make a well-educated guess if you understand what the coaches and coordinators are going to do.
The perfect example was on display in Week 1 when Washington Commanders tight end Logan Thomas led the team in targets. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy arrived with the old Kansas City Chiefs playbook under his arm and imported the scheme into the Commanders game plan. What have the Chiefs done in all the years Bieniemy was their coordinator? They threw the ball to Travis Kelce any chance they got. Bieniemy’s playbook, at least until he starts to make the adjustments that cater to his personnel, is going to routinely funnel targets to the tight end position which gives Thomas significant value to open the season. While turning eight targets into four caches for 43 yards wasn’t eye-popping, he was targeted in the end zone and will be again in the future.
You can also look at the target-share for Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams. In his first game he had 13 carries for 52 yards, but, more importantly, he was targeted six times in the passing attack. He didn’t rack up much in yardage for his five catches, but the important takeaway here is that a Joe Lombardi offense features a pass-catching running back. Alvin Kamara averaged 102 targets per year in Lombardi’s system and Austin Ekeler averaged 111 targets per season under him as well. Williams was expected to have a lighter-than-usual workload in his first game back since tearing his ACL, so if six targets is light, we don’t need to go heavy.
As you scan through the player pool, keep your focus on developing systems with new coaches and coordinators. Los Angeles Chargers receivers should see more downfield work under Kellen Moore. Hayden Hurst should see more targets under Thomas Brown and Frank Reich in Carolina. Hunter Henry should see an increase under Bill O’Brien in New England. If you follow the coaching movement and understand the systems being implemented, discovering which players will be featured becomes a much easier task.
Player News
Alex Anzalone was absent from the Lions’ offseason workouts this week.
While Anzalone hasn’t explicitly said he wants a new contract, it doesn’t take a genius to connect the dots here. The Lions co-captain who turns 31 in September is a notable absence from optional offseason workouts this week after making multiple references to his value to the Lions on social media. Those references include a graph of the Lions’ defensive decline in DVOA in the seven games Anzalone missed last year as well as a note about the linebacker market increasing after Nick Bolton signed a three-year, $45 million deal with the Chiefs. Detroit hasn’t been bashful about handing out extensions in recent years and Anzalone, who’s entering the last year of a three-year, $18 million contract, believes he is next in line.
Ravens signed DT John Jenkins to a one-year contract.
The 35-year-old 13th-year pro slides in as a 1-for-1 Michael Pierce replacement after the former Raven retired in March. Although strictly a two-down player, Jenkins actually played a new career high 606 snaps for the Raiders last season. He probably won’t reach that total in Baltimore, but he should see plenty of work as a run-stopper.
49ers signed K Greg Joseph.
The 30-year-old journeyman spent time with each of the Giants, Commanders and Jets last season. He’ll serve as a veteran, in-house option should third-year pro Jake Moody look shaky this summer after an underwhelming 2024.
49ers signed Brock Purdy to a five-year, $265 million contract extension.
Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, Purdy gets $181 million in total guarantees with $165.1 million in the first three new years. He is now under contract through 2030. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant flashed in a handful of starts as a rookie and immediately proved to be Kyle Shanahan’s next efficiency phenom in 2023 with 4,280 yards and 31 scores. Purdy’s numbers fell in 2024, but he did enough to keep the offense on the tracks despite a rash of injuries, even if the 49ers lumbered to a 6-11 record. Purdy managed 3,864 yards and 20 scores in 15 games and showed an improved ability to work out of structure and under pressure. Though he may not have a truly elite ceiling, Purdy is beginning to beat the system quarterback allegations after just two seasons as the full-time starter. With the league’s easiest schedule on tap for 2025, expect a rebound from Purdy and the entire team this year.
Jets released K Greg Zuerlein.
Defensive end Michael Fletcher was signed in a corresponding move. Zuerlein has kicked for the Jets since 2022. He suffered a knee injury last year and briefly returned before being placed back on injured reserve. Zuerlein appeared in eight games and went a dreadful 9-of-15 on his field goal tries. The 60 percent hit rate was by far the worst of his career. Now 37 years old, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Legatron hang up the cleats for good after being released. If he wants to keep kicking, another team will be more than willing to at least give him a camp battle to win.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said his guess is that the NFL will ban the tush push during next week’s owners’ meeting.
Schefter didn’t cite any sources directly but reiterated the point later in the latest episode of The Adam Schefter Podcast, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the owners voted to outlaw the play. Losing the free touchdown play would undoubtedly hurt Philly’s offense and Jalen Hurts’ fantasy outlook, but it’s hard to imagine a team with Hurts, an elite offensive line, and Saquon Barkley not finding other ways to get in the end zone from a yard out. If the tush push is banned, it would likely just shuffle some of Hurts’ touchdowns to Barkley. Other teams including the Bills have experimented with similar plays, but no one has found as much success as the Eagles. The owners will also be voting on a change to the playoff seeding rules. The proposed change would seed teams based purely on their record instead of each division winner earning a top-four seed. While that may be a more logical way to do things, it’s certainly less fun.