If you are a Fantasy Alarm subscriber and have been following me on the site formerly known as Twitter (@rotobuzzguy), then you probably already know where you can find more of my work. I host the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Monday through Friday from 5-7pm ET as well as Sunday mornings at 10am ET. I host Alarm Fantasy Football and Getting Buzzed on the Fantasy Alarm YouTube page and you can also find my work in the New York Post. I have been writing over there for the past decade, doing both fantasy football and fantasy baseball, and while the pieces aren’t in-depth think-pieces, they do offer strong advice for in-season strategy and waiver claims.

The following piece is set to appear in the Post this weekend, but I wanted to share it over here because I believe this is strong advice for those looking for waiver wire help heading into the NFL Week 2 games. It is also very much on-brand if you’ve read the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. Bookmark my author page in the Post to see future articles, but for now, enjoy (and use) this one a little ahead of time. 

 

 

Following Coaching Movement Helps Reveal Early-Season Fantasy Football Sleepers

 One of the difficulties in understanding how players will perform this early in the season is the lack of usable year-to-year data. We have five new head coaches with 16 new offensive coordinators, all of whom want to put their own personal stamp on the team’s offense. Determining which players will thrive and which ones become square pegs being jammed into round holes takes a few games to gather the full picture. Fortunately, the NFL is a copycat league, so while you may not know which players are immediate fits, you can make a well-educated guess if you understand what the coaches and coordinators are going to do.

The perfect example was on display in Week 1 when Washington Commanders tight end Logan Thomas led the team in targets. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy arrived with the old Kansas City Chiefs playbook under his arm and imported the scheme into the Commanders game plan. What have the Chiefs done in all the years Bieniemy was their coordinator? They threw the ball to Travis Kelce any chance they got. Bieniemy’s playbook, at least until he starts to make the adjustments that cater to his personnel, is going to routinely funnel targets to the tight end position which gives Thomas significant value to open the season. While turning eight targets into four caches for 43 yards wasn’t eye-popping, he was targeted in the end zone and will be again in the future.

You can also look at the target-share for Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams. In his first game he had 13 carries for 52 yards, but, more importantly, he was targeted six times in the passing attack. He didn’t rack up much in yardage for his five catches, but the important takeaway here is that a Joe Lombardi offense features a pass-catching running back. Alvin Kamara averaged 102 targets per year in Lombardi’s system and Austin Ekeler averaged 111 targets per season under him as well. Williams was expected to have a lighter-than-usual workload in his first game back since tearing his ACL, so if six targets is light, we don’t need to go heavy.

As you scan through the player pool, keep your focus on developing systems with new coaches and coordinators. Los Angeles Chargers receivers should see more downfield work under Kellen Moore. Hayden Hurst should see more targets under Thomas Brown and Frank Reich in Carolina. Hunter Henry should see an increase under Bill O’Brien in New England. If you follow the coaching movement and understand the systems being implemented, discovering which players will be featured becomes a much easier task.