Y’all we made it! We are down to the single digit days before the return of NFL football, and while NCAA football was a nice appetizer this past weekend, I’m ready to get to the Wagyu beef That is assuming you still have an appetite after being force-fed hot take after hot take all offseason. But if you’re like me, you’re a true glutton for football and absorb every morsel of fantasy information you can get. 

 


It’s not just the quality of the food either; it has to have some SPICE. If I wanted football takes as bland as some instant mashed potatoes, I’d go to the nearest office potluck and call it a day, but that’s not what we’re serving up around here. These takes are so spicy, you’d have to sign a waiver to eat them. We’re talking Chocolate Habanero, Red Savina, and maybe even a few Carolina Reaper level takes. No jalapenos around here.

But, now I’m just making myself hungry AKA more excited for football. Before the show kicks off this Thursday, here are a few of my thoughts going into this season. It’s last call for preseason hot takes!
 

Jonathan Taylor Will Fall Outside the Top Six Running Backs in Fantasy Points

I’m starting out with the take that will really get people up in arms, because why not rip the band-aid off and get the rage flowing, right? 


Taylor is the consensus number one pick, but there are lots of red flags pointing to him finishing outside the top six at the position this season. First, and stop me if you’ve heard this before because I feel like a broken record, but the overall RB1 hasn’t repeated as the RB1 the next year in nearly TWO decades. This trend is nearly old enough to legally drink, people, so why would Taylor magically make it happen this year?

There’s also talk around getting Nyheim Hines more involved in the rotation, with Dan Graziano of ESPN saying, “Don’t be surprised if Nyheim Hines sets career highs in receptions this season” and Frank Reich telling you to draft Hines on your fantasy rosters. Now, is he going to overtake Taylor? Absolutely not. But, depending on how much Hines eats into his workload, Taylor’s role could resemble a Swiss cheese more than it does a Robusto Gouda by the end of the season. 

Then there’s the matter of Matt Ryan coming in at quarterback. The Colts didn’t go out of their way to make an improvement at quarterback to not increase their pass attempts. If they were happy with the status quo, they would have just kept Carson Wentz. They also drafted Alec Pierce and pass-catching tight end Jelani Woods for added weapons, and with a third year star in Michael Pittman, pardon the pun, but the Colts aren’t going to be a one trick pony. Don’t be surprised if your overall number one pick doesn’t live up to the hype this season.

Aaron Rodgers Will Not Support a Top 24 Wide Receiver

It’s hard to remember a time when there wasn’t a top 24 wide receiver in Green Bay, as there has been at least one every year of Aaron Rodgers’ tenure, but, with the departure of Davante Adams, you don’t get the warm and fuzzies about the Packers’ receiving corps. I know spooky season isn’t technically for another month, but it’s already downright terrifying at Lambeau Field. Matt Lafleur has suggested that the Packers are going to spread the ball around more than they have done in previous years, leaving them with no real number one wide receiver, and that is going to make it really hard for any one receiver to rise to the top. It’s a terrifying thing to see from a fantasy standpoint.

But what about Allen Lazard? He’s in line for vacated targets, right? Sure, he’ll see some sort of increase in targets, but do you really want to place your fantasy hopes and dreams on a guy who ended up as WR47 last season, was 80th in yards per route run, and 81st in route win rate? He’s been valuable in the red zone, but touchdown dependent players will disappoint more often than not. Sammy Watkins will have his one boom game of the season Week 1 then fall off the face of the planet, Randall Cobb is a sneeze away from retirement, and the two rookies are unproven against professional defenses. Factor that in with Aaron Jones’ pass catching ability and the return of Robert Tonyan, and it’s hard to think that these receivers get anything more than the occasional target. Back-to-back MVP under center or not, you can’t get blood from a turnip, and that’s what this offense is right now.

Mike Williams Will Overtake Keenan Allen as the Number One Wide Receiver on the Chargers

This take may be one of the more mild of the bunch, but we need something for the capsaicin sensitive. We know Keenan Allen is getting older, but he has been extremely consistent from a fantasy standpoint, finishing with over 1,100 yards four of the past five seasons. So why in the world would anything change this year? In 16 games they played last year, Allen averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game with Williams hot on his heels with 15.4, and they finished as the WR11 and WR12, respectively. What we’re not looking at is how good Williams was in the first part of the season. 

Before he got banged up in Week 6, Williams was an absolute monster, averaging over 10 targets and 94 yards per game. Those numbers alone are good, but when you consider he also added six touchdowns over that span, it was elite. Throughout those first five weeks, Williams was WR2 behind only Cooper Kupp. Williams also kept up with Allen despite being 34th in target share to Allen’s 15th. The deep targets and yards after catch ability are going to get Williams over the hump this year, and he’s going to finish as the Chargers’ number one wide receiver.

Treylon Burks Will Lead all Rookies in Fantasy Points

Now that we’ve had a bit of a palette cleanse, let’s up that Scoville level. When I say all rookies, I mean ALL rookies, including Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, and Drake London. Burks didn’t have a great preseason from a statistical standpoint, especially after dealing with some conditioning and injury issues, but recent news is optimistic, with the Titans saying they have a “major role” planned for him in the regular season. 

Surely you all know by now that I’ve been beating the Burks drum for a while, and with all the developments that Breece Hall will be in a committee, Kenneth Walker has a hernia, and Drake London has a minor knee injury, that drumbeat is only getting louder. It’s like Jumanji up in here. Burks had a 16.8 yards per catch average at Arkansas against the toughest competition in the NCAA, and he also had elite breakaway speed. Robert Woods looks to start the season as Tennessee’s number one wide receiver, but he’s also an older receiver who is coming off of an injury, and there’s not much remaining depth behind him. 


Burks also has the big body to be used in a wide back role, and even though they have Derrick Henry, they may try to somewhat limit his touches after last year’s injury. It would also be an utter nightmare to try and figure out who to stop if Henry and Burks line up in the backfield together. Talk about a wrecking crew! 

Tom Brady Will Finish Outside the Top 12 in Fantasy Points

How dare I talk in less than flattering terms about the GOAT? Well, guys, sometimes the truth hurts, and this has nothing to do with his talent but more about the supporting cast around him. Put away your pitchforks and listen to a little reason. Brady is no spring chicken, and while he has done well up until this point, he’s always had a pretty stellar offensive line protecting him. He has the mobility of a stunted sloth, but as long as he has protection, he does well. The Bucs no longer have Pro Bowler Ali Marpet on the roster and they also lost center Ryan Jensen for the year. We saw how the breakdown in protection affected Brady last season in the playoff game against the Rams, and it was...not good.

Brady’s stats last season were also padded by an exorbitant amount of pass attempts which resulted in a career-high yardage total, but now he’s without Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown, and he’ll likely be missing Chris Godwin for a few games. “But they got Julio Jones.” Yeah, don’t come at me with that. Julio hasn’t been a relevant fantasy option since 2019, and I don’t think he’ll suddenly have a resurgence with Tom Brady. 

Brady also missed a large chunk of the preseason for mysterious reasons, and this did not help build rapport with his new receivers. If the season doesn’t go well for him, I would not be surprised if he re-retired midseason. This guy deserves the utmost respect for one of the greatest careers of all time, but even the mighty must fall.

 

Related Articles: