We’ve seen this before. An NFL team looking like one of the most complete teams in the league except for the most important position - quarterback. Sometimes that team is able to go out and get a veteran QB like Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford and they have immediate success. Other times they go after a Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers and the results aren’t as great. We’ll have to see what happens with the teams that nabbed Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. Regardless, the Jets are in a similar position right now with the rebuild they’ve built and are reportedly in the mix to make a move for a veteran QB. They could make some noise right away with the right fit.

With this series, we are taking a look at each NFL team to gauge the direction of the offense from a dynasty fantasy football perspective. Is this team gearing up for a Super Bowl run? Are they in the midst of a rebuild? Are they considering blowing it up? We’ll take all of that into account as well as the current contracts, upcoming free agents, and 2023 NFL draft class to give you our best recommendations on how to handle these weapons in your dynasty fantasy football leagues.

 

Recommendations Key

BUY - Attempt to acquire this player at or slightly above market value

HOLD - The player is likely more valuable than the market indicates. Hold them if you have them or try to acquire them at a discount.

SELL - The perceived value for this player is higher than the projected remaining value in your average dynasty league. Cash out now.

SELL/DROP - Depending on the depth of the league, always try to sell guys before dropping. But this player is likely not worth the bench spot he’s occupying so you might need to just drop them.  

*Contract information is proved courtesy of Spotrac.com*

New York Jets 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Preview

New York Jets Quarterback

Overview: 

The Jets have one quarterback under contract for 2023

Zach Wilson age 23

Contract: Zach Wilson is a first round pick so he’s under contract through 2024 with a fifth year option for 2025.

Outlook: Zach Wilson could turn out to be a bust or he could turn out to be a shining example of why it’s not always a great idea to throw your rookie quarterback into the fire. It became apparent fairly quickly with the New York media that Wilson has some adjustments to make in terms of attitude and maturity. The team has expressed their interest in acquiring a veteran in an attempt to win now with Wilson serving as the backup.

Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - His trade value in dynasty has been completely vaporized so your only options really are to hold and drop. In single QB leagues it’s not necessary to hang on unless you have the depth but in two QB leagues you should find a spot to stash him. He’s flashed the raw ability and, even though it got him into trouble at times, he showed he’s mobile enough to extend plays and run when need be so there is a chance he bounces back at some point. He’s still quite young and we’ve seen guys like Kurt Warner and Steve Young have late breakouts, though it is admittedly rare.

Reserve Future: Chris Streveler

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

Head coach Robert Saleh has made it clear their intention is to find a veteran quarterback. The obvious options are a trade for Aaron Rodgers or signing Derek Carr now that he has been released. We expect guys like Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith to be retained so the next tier available is going to be QBs like Jimmy Garoppolo, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jacoby Brissett. The Jets roster is looking rock solid and ready to compete now so I’d be pushing hard for Rodgers or Carr.

New York Jets Running Backs 

Overview: 

The Jets have three running backs under contract.

Breece Hall - age 21

Contract: Breece Hall was a second round pick and is under contract on his rookie deal through 2025.

Outlook: Hall looked like a certified megastar before his season ended with a knee injury in late October. The good news is that reports at the time were that it was a clean ACL tear and surgery went well and now we are already seeing clips of him running on a treadmill.

Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - Folks might lump Hall in with guys like Javonte Williams and thoughts of JK Dobbins would leave them concerned. But not every knee injury is built the same. Williams and Dobbins tore multiple ligaments requiring more extension repair and rehab. Hall is honestly well on his way back and he’s only 21 years old. This offensive line with Mekhi Becton, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Laken Tomlinson etc. is looking robust and, if they get the QB upgrade they’ve been jockeying for, this offensive could be firing on all cylinders. This might be your last chance to acquire Hall.

Michael Carter - age 23

Contract: Michael Carter is under contract through 2024.

Outlook: We were pretty excited about Carter coming off his rookie season but he was quickly usurped by rookie phenom Breece Hall. Even worse, after Hall went down he was relegated to a passing down back as Zonovan Knight got the early down work.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL - This is always the concern for Day 3 picks and it should serve as a warning for guys like Damien Pierce. The modern NFL running back room is made of many pieces, often complimentary. So having a guy like Michael Carter doesn’t prevent a team from taking a Breece Hall (clearly). Now Carter is at best a handcuff plus but most likely just a handcuff that you can only start while Hall is out. If you have him without Hall, I would try to sell him to the Hall owner as a handcuff before we get word that Breece will be ready early on in the season. The narrative that the Hall owner can start him early on while he gets ramped up is likely where you are going to get the best return. He’s likely a third down back at best in the NFL.

Zonovan Knight - age 21

Contract: Zonovan Knight is under contract for this year but can be kept as an exclusive rights free agent for 2024.

Outlook: There was some pre-draft hype for Knight before the draft in the dynasty communities but he ended up going undrafted. When the Jets signed him he looked completely buried but, after injuries to BOTH Breece Hall and Michael Carter, he was able to flash.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - It honestly might be too late to sell based on his 15 minutes of fame since we’re so far away from fantasy season already. And that speaks to how important it is to try to flip undrafted free agents like this the moment they show us anything - especially when they are buried on their depth chart for the next two years minimum. I’m not saying Knight has no shot of being anything in this league but he had an uphill battle the day he didn’t get drafted and having a couple decent games as a full-in doesn’t change his spot on this depth chart.

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS: James Robinson

FREE AGENTS: Ty Johnson

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

The Jets honestly have what they need from an offensive production standpoint. Breece Hall is the starter and, if he goes down, they can use a combination of Zonovan Knight on run downs and Michael Carter on pass downs. I could see the, adding maybe another depth piece but it would almost certainly be someone that also plays special teams. I don’t foresee them bringing back James Robinson or Ty Johnson.

 

New York Jets Wide Receivers

Overview: 

The Jets have five wide receivers under contract for 2023 with four signed to reserve/future deals.

Corey Davis - age 28

Contract: Davis is on the last year of his deal at just over $11 million. He can be cut with only a ~$600,000 cap hit and $10.5 million in savings.

Outlook: Some folks will surely call for Davis to be cut given the minimal dead cap but his deal honestly isn’t bad compared to the replacements. We have to keep in mind that DJ Chark got one year, $10 million last year and is expected to get at least that much per year on a multi-year deal this off-season. And guys like Chark and Allen Lazard are arguably the best options at split end available in free agency.

Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - Quick basic football lesson: There are three roles within the wide receiver position. Split end, flanker, and slot. The split end is one of the 11 players required to tether his foot to the line and often lines up out wide on the opposite side of the tight end. The flanker typically lines up on the same side as the tight end out wide but is a couple steps back off the line as only the widest tethered player is eligible to catch passes (hence why tackles aren’t eligible if a TE or WR lines up outside of them). The slot player lines up off the line but in between the line and the widest pass catcher.

Why the lesson? Well, like it or not, Corey Davis is the split end for the Jets. He has the prototypical size to beat the jam with his foot tethered to the line. And that player often stays on the field for two WR sets at the expense of one of those flanker or slot. With the emergence of Garrett Wilson, THAT is why Elijah Moore didn’t play a full snap share (outside of attitude issues). And that’s also why I believe Corey Davis is a sneaky buy to see if the veteran can end up one of the favorites of whatever veteran QB they bring in.

Garrett Wilson - age 21

Contract: Wilson is a first round pick so he’s under contract through 2025 with a fifth year option for 2026.

Outlook: When it comes to rookie wide receivers, you can’t really ask for more than 147 targets and 1,100+ yards. And, given the QB play, it seems the only way to go for the young wideout is up.

Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - Unfortunately, Wilson won the Offensive Rookie of the Year at this year’s awards. We say “unfortunately” because that meaningless title creates an unnecessary increase in his dynasty value compared to some of his peers and we don’t like having to pay up. Still, he seems about as promising as it gets for a young rookie and, as we’ve seen with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, that price only goes up if he comes out and does it again year two. Wilson seems like a special player so I would do your best to pay the current price to get him before it gets completely out of hand. We might be there already.

Elijah Moore - age 23

Contract: Elijah Moore was a second round pick in 2021 so he’s under contract through 2024.

Outlook: The expectations were high for Elijah Moore and he really could not have been more disappointing. Playing poorly is one thing but getting yourself benched is another completely. Now we are left wondering if he is even going to be a big part of the future plans.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL - If you read the Corey Davis write up above, you probably knew where this one was headed. Robert Saleh comes from the Kyle Shanahan tree and, even though he’s a defensive coach, the team still employs multiple fullbacks and tight ends. Every time an extra player like that comes in, a WR comes out and Moore is often that guy. Between that and the questionable attitude, Moore likely needs a change of scenery to pop in this league. We’re not ruling that out but he likely still carries name recognition value given the hype so you can probably still get a great return on him. If someone will give you a second round pick I’d strongly consider that.

Braxton Berrios - age 27

Contract: Berrios is under contract for 2023 then he’s an unrestricted free agent.

Outlook: He’s a valuable real life asset as he returns both punts and kicks which saves a roster spot. He doesn’t see much time on offense though.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - Unless you have huge bonuses for returns in your league, you can drop him.

Denzel Mims - age 25

Contract: Mims is under contract for 2023 then he’s an unrestricted free agent. He can be released for $375K in dead cap, $1,3 million in savings.

Outlook: Both Mims and his agent have been calling for him to be traded since last off-season as it’s become fairly clear that he’s not going to be a part of this offense moving forward. Perhaps they’ll grant him his release now given the savings.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - Sometimes players leave a team and have upside elsewhere but those guys are usually at least kind of productive during the first stint (like Emmanuel Sanders with the Steelers). Mims hasn’t done much and it’s an indictment on him that they drafted not one but two wide receivers shortly after selecting him. He has some name value in dynasty so try to sell if you can.

RESERVE/FUTURE: Rodney Adams, Diontae Spencer, Irvin Charles, Malik Taylor

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS: Jeff Smith, Lawrence Cager

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

The reality for the Jets is that they don’t have to do very much this off-season at WR if they don’t want to. They have Corey Davis at split end, Garrett Wilson at flanker, Elijah Moore in the slot, Braxton Berrios to return kicks (and backup slot), and Denzel Mims as the next man up. They could also easily bring back Smith and Lawrence Cager (Cager is an exclusive rights free agent so they can bring him back for the veteran minimum without him hitting free agency at all). They could cut Corey Davis and Denzel Mims - if that happens, they are right back in the WR market with everyone else.

Jets Tight Ends

Overview: 

The Jets have two tight ends under contract and one signed to reserve/future contracts. 

Tyler Conklin - age 27

Contract: Tyler Conklin is under contract through 2024 then he’s a restricted free agent in 2025.

Outlook: Tyler Conklin was a mid range TE2 which is about what you can hope for from him at this stage of his career.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL - Tyler Conklin is an NFL-caliber tight end. There is no doubt about that. But, unless you play in tight end premium, the barrier to entry to be a fantasy relevant tight end is pretty high. There are 32 NFL teams and only 10-12 tight ends start in your fantasy football league. And even fewer are actual difference makers. We did a full write up on what we are looking for in a fantasy football tight end and Conklin misses the mark in a couple key aspects. He’s not particularly athletic, he blocks on too many pass plays, he runs low aDot routes, and he has only five broken tackles in just as many seasons. There are people out there that seem to like him so sell him for anything if you can, otherwise you don’t need to hold him.

CJ Uzomah - age 30

Contract: Uzomah is under contract through 2024 then he’s an unrestricted free agent.

Outlook: The Jets signed both Uzomah and Conklin last off-season. Based on their profiles, the assumption was that Conklin would skew blocking with Uzomah skewing pass catching. But, at the end of the day, it really seemed more like Conklin was the starter and Uzomah was the TE2. Tough break for the likable player. The way his contract is set up, there isn’t much benefit to cutting him but a trade would save $8 million.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - Here’s the truth - as soon as CJ Uzomah symbolically lost the “starting tight end” battle to Tyler Conklin, he lost what little fantasy value he had. You’re unlikely to be able to sell him so you don’t need to hold him.

Jeremy Ruckert - age 25

Contract: Ruckert is on his rookie deal through 2025.

Outlook: The new regime went hard at tight end, signing two players and drafting Ruckert. The rookie only registered one catch on the season in the final game so primarily contributed on special teams.

Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - In deep enough leagues you can hold him to see what happens when Conklin/Uzomah age out but tight end is a pretty fickle position in that regard. In shallow leagues he can be dropped as he doesn’t really have the draft capital or profile we typically look for.

RESERVE/FUTURE: Kenny Yeboah

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

Given the major investment in the position last year, I really don’t see them making a move for a tight end this off-season. Next year when they can move on from Uzomah we might see some action.

 

Follow Andrew Cooper on Twitter @CoopAFiasco for more NFL and fantasy football insights and stay tuned as we hit on all 32 NFL teams in this series leading into NFL free agency!

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