If you are a Denver Broncos fan, you have to look around the rest of the league for inspiration. Teams like the Buccaneers and Lions added guys like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford and won - that’s what you are trying to do with Russell Wilson. And teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants moved on from bad coaches and found success the following year with Doug Pederson and Brian Daboll. You’re hoping that Sean Payton will ride in on a white horse and lead these orange horses to the big game.

With this series, we are taking a look at each NFL team to gauge the direction of the offense from a dynasty fantasy football perspective. Is this team gearing up for a Super Bowl run? Are they in the midst of a rebuild? Are they considering blowing it up? We’ll take all of that into account as well as the current contracts, upcoming free agents, and 2023 NFL draft class to give you our best recommendations on how to handle these weapons in your dynasty fantasy football leagues.

 

Recommendations Key

BUY - Attempt to acquire this player at or slightly above market value

HOLD - The player is likely more valuable than the market indicates. Hold them if you have them or try to acquire them at a discount.

SELL - The perceived value for this player is higher than the projected remaining value in your average dynasty league. Cash out now.

SELL/DROP - Depending on the depth of the league, always try to sell guys before dropping. But this player is likely not worth the bench spot he’s occupying so you might need to just drop them.  

*Contract information is proved courtesy of Spotrac.com*

Broncos Quarterback

Overview: 

The Broncos have two quarterbacks under contract for 2023 with one restricted free agent.

Russell Wilson - age 34

Contract:  The Broncos traded for Wilson and then signed him to a massive deal through 2028. The first year it becomes reasonable for them to part ways would be 2026. Even then he would carry $31.2 million in dead cap with $27.2 million in savings. 

Outlook: We love to make jokes as football fans but I don’t think many real fans out there truly believe that Russell Wilson is a bad quarterback all of a sudden. Coaching does matter for the quarterback, as we’ve seen recently with guys like Daniel Jones and Trevor Lawrence. It didn’t work out well with Nathaniel Hackett so the Broncos decided to take no chances, trading first and second-round picks for coach Sean Payton (plus a third-round pick). 

Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD/SELL - These are always dicey times in the world of quarterbacks. On one hand, he lost a ton of value from last off-season as hopes were high after the trade to the Broncos. The reality was a brutal letdown. On the other hand, his value likely has bounced back some with the announcement that Sean Payton will be joining the squad (though it’s not easy to get everyone on board with a new playbook over one off-season).

Here’s how I’m treating Wilson. In any format, if I’m not one of the top teams in my league, I’m looking to sell. Wilson will turn 35 this season and guys like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees have probably set unrealistic expectations about how long a quarterback can remain at the top of his game in this league. If I’m in a one QB league, I’m also selling. Wilson has already slowed down drastically on the mobility front and Sean Payton’s offense isn’t necessarily known for that (unless they want to use him like a Taysom Hill battering ram which I doubt happens). In superflex or two-quarterback leagues where I’m competing now, I’m holding (or even buying at market value). This guy should be a high-end QB2 or backend QB1 at worst and that guy will be in your lineup every week. 

Jarrett Guarantano - age 25 

Contract: Despite his name, Guarantano does not have much guaranteed money tied to his deal so he could be cut this year for $5,000 in dead cap and $870,000 in savings. Next year he would be an exclusive rights free agent which would let them keep him for the veteran minimum.

Outlook: Guarantano was on the practice squad but was elevated to the active roster when Russell Wilson got hurt and the 49ers poached Josh Johnson off the Broncos practice squad.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - It would need to be a very deep league to hold onto him.

Brett Rypien - age 26

Contract: Rypien is a restricted free agent so he can be brought back on a tender if they choose to do so. 

Outlook: The minimum RFA tender deal for Rypien would be $2.7 million which likely would keep other teams from signing him away though they could probably sign him for a cheaper deal than that.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - We saw what Rypien looked like when Russ went down and it wasn’t someone we were starting in fantasy football. 

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

The Broncos have already made their bed with Russell Wilson so there is no question about starting QB for the next couple of years. The question is at backup QB where they will obviously need to do something. Often times a new coach will bring in someone familiar with their system to be back up and help with the transition. Most of the names who played for Sean Payton in New Orleans would be expensive like Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, or Teddy Bridgewater. The name that jumps out to me is Chase Daniel who spent three years with Sean Payton from 2010-2012 then came back as a backup in 2017. He’s a guy I’d consider bringing on to help everyone familiar with the offensive scheme.

Broncos Running Backs

Overview: 

The Broncos have two running backs under contract, one restricted free agent, and one back signed to a reserve/future contract.

Chase Edmonds - age 26

Contract: The Broncos traded for Chase Edmonds so they are not on the hook for any guaranteed money. He’s signed for $5.92 million for 2023 but can be released with zero dead cap.

Outlook: A situation like this really illustrates the beauty of rookie contracts - Chase Edmonds is set to make double what Javonte Williams is making.  Edmonds didn’t live up to expectations in Miami but Mike McDaniel was clearly very particular about the fit within his system - they also paid Mike Gesicki and Cedrick Wilson then didn’t use them either.

Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - Sean Payton famously uses a role in his offense known as the “joker” role. That’s what Alvin Kamara played where he caught a ton of passes though he’s never had a 1,000-yard rushing season. Our immediate thought is that will be Javonte Williams but what if they use Javonte Williams on early downs like a younger Mark Ingram and Chase Edmonds is used on pass downs? Not a crazy notion. Now, Edmonds might also get released because he carries no dead cap which is why we aren’t buying him either. The situation with Edmonds right now is a pure wait and see which is why he’s a hold.

Javonte Williams - age 22

Contract: Javonte Wiliams was a second round in 2021 so he’s under contract through 2024.

Outlook: Williams looked poised for a breakout last off-season and then the Broncos poured a bit of cold water on that by bringing Melvin Gordon back. The water turned freezing when he suffered a serious knee injury, ending his 2022 campaign before it ever really began.

Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD/SELL - We just laid out a potentially concerning narrative for Javonte Williams in the Chase Edmonds section above. What’s even more concerning is that Williams’s injury wasn’t just an ACL but also his LCL and PCL which is similar to the injury that hampered JK Dobbins this year. The stories of guys like Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles bouncing right back make you forget about the guys like Marquise Lee (ACL/PCL) that never really did. There is a reason we are seeing clips of Breece Hall running on a treadmill despite tearing his ACL on October 24th yet we haven’t heard much from the Javonte Williams camp despite his injury happening three weeks earlier. That said, the good news is that Williams did not suffer nerve damage which can be the real killer in a lot of cases.  If you are risk averse and you can get the full asking price for Javonte Williams, the conservative play might be to sell him on the back of this Sean Payton news. That said, his upside is tremendous if he can get back to full strength so unless you can get a haul for him, you hold. 

RESERVE/FUTURE:

Damarea Crockett, Tyler Badie, Tyreik McAllister

FREE AGENTS:

Latavius Murray, Mike Boone, Marlon Mack

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

There is a world where Javonte Williams isn’t ready to go Week 1 and Chase Edmonds is cut (since he can be cut with zero dead cap) in which case they would need someone from the outside to come in and start. We mentioned how the Broncos could bring in a QB who has played with Sean Payton before like Teddy Bridgewater or Chase Daniel. Well, not only was Latavius Murray with the Broncos last year but he played for Sean Payton for two years in 2019 and 2020. So it makes all the sense in the world for them to bring him back if it’s affordable. If they can restructure Chase Edmond and use him on pass downs with Latavius Murray on early downs, that would be enough to get them by until Javonte Williams returns. Then they would just need to fill out the depth chart with viable guys who maybe also play special teams. Otherwise, they may need to look to free agency or the draft.

Broncos Wide Receivers

Overview: 

The Broncos have six wide receivers under contract with another three signed to reserve/future contracts.

Courtland Sutton - age 27

Contract: Sutton signed an extension that would keep him with the team through 2025. Even a trade would carry ~$11.5 million in dead cap with only ~$6.8 million in savings in 2023 so the soonest out in the contract is realistically 2024 ($7.65 million in dead cap with ~$9.7 million in savings). 

Outlook: We were hopeful that Russell Wilson would bring Courtland Sutton back to the glory of his 2019 season but QB play considers to hamper him. His catch rate, route participation, average depth of target, drop rate, and contested catches were all fairly similar to his breakout season so it really does seem to boil down to the quality of targets.

Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - We love to talk about how Michael Thomas played “Big Slot” for Sean Payton but he honestly didn’t really play a crazy amount of slot - it was just the fact that he was big and sometimes played slot that was surprising. In his record-setting target season in 2019, Michael Thomas lined up out wide 740 times and in the slot only 252. Sutton himself has three different seasons where he ventured into the slot over a hundred times. So, if you are looking for the guy who will play the Michael Thomas role in this offense, that’s probably Courtland Sutton. Here are there two profiles side by side, per Player Profiler.

Jerry Jeudy - age 23

Contract: Jerry Jeudy was a first round pick so he’s under contract through 2023 and they can pick up his fifth-year option for 2024.

Outlook: Like many highly recruited players out of Alabama, Jeudy made it to the big leagues at very young age so he’s still only 23 despite playing three seasons in the NFL.  Despite the down year for the Broncos offense, Jeudy actually had his best statistical season with 67 catches on 100 targets for 972 yards and six touchdowns.  

Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - This is what happens when a team completely flops on offense - the talented guys end up on “hold”. The problem with Jeudy is that he led the team in production and he’s still very young so he’s not quite as cheap as Sutton to buy. But he also has yet to crack 1,000 yards in three seasons so there isn’t quite enough value to sell. I’m in the boat right now that thinks Russell Wilson still has some high-level ball left and that Sean Payton can bring it out so I’m holding Jeudy (or buying for market value if possible). The asking price might be a little too high though if the owner is thinking “Michael Thomas was the slot/slant guy for Payton so Jeudy will be that guy”. We already mentioned why we don’t necessarily think that’s the case.

Tim Patrick - age 29

Contract: Tim Patrick is under contract through 2024. If he returns healthy, it’s unlikely he we would be released in 2023 thought he can be released in 2024 with $2.3 million in dead cap and $10.75 mil in savings

Outlook: Tim Patrick was set to play the “Allen Lazard” role in Nathaniel Hackett’s offense but tore his ACL before the season even started. Reports are that he was ahead of schedule in his recovery and is expected back by training camp. 

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL - Though obviously the big contract was a huge blessing and well deserved in real life for Tim Patrick, it wasn’t great for his fantasy value. We want guys who are the focal points of their offense (or at least the top two targets). With a guy like this, the end-of-season stats never look bad but it’s the inconsistency that hurts you - he played 16 games in 2021 but 11 of them saw less than 45 yards and six saw less than 20. At 29 years old coming off a torn ACL to be the third fiddle on the Broncos, I would sell Patrick for anything you can. You can likely drop him if you need the bench spot for rookie drafts.

KJ Hamler - age 23

Contract: KJ Hamler is under contract through 2023 then he’s an unrestricted free agent.

Outlook: Injuries in 2021 and 2022 significantly derailed Hamler’s career so we’ve yet to really see the full upside of what he can offer.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - Hamler profiles as a field stretcher which is a valuable role in real life football but does not typically translate well to fantasy. You don’t get points for taking the top off defenses. What Hamler likely needs to find fantasy relevance is a fresh start on a new team so I’d try to sell if you can. I just don’t see a world where he finds enough targets in this Broncos offense.

Montrell Washington - age 23

Contract: Washington was a fifth round pick in 2022 so he’s under contract on a rookie deal through 2025.

Outlook: Washington carved out a role returning both kicks and punts - the ability to do both is valuable in this league since you save a roster spot. Look at guys like Jamaal Agnew, Jakeem Grant, and DeAndre Carter. They continue to get paid in this league even if their fantasy relevancy is limited.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - They reportedly like Washington over there but he’s more of a special teams player for the time being. You don’t really need to hold guys like that unless it’s an incredibly deep league but maybe keep him on your radar when contracts come up for guys like KJ Hamler and Courtland Sutton. 

Jalen Virgil - age 24

Contract: Virgil was signed as an undrafted free agent so he’s under contract through 2024. He can be released with $870K in savings, and only $8,334 in dead cap. 

Outlook: Virgil caught two passes this year but one of them happened to be a 66-yard touchdown. Pretty cool for the rookie. 

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - With the new coach coming in he might not even make this roster. He’s a significant long shot to fantasy relevance. 

RESERVE/FUTURE:

Freddie Swain, Brandon Johnson, Kendall Hinton, Victor Bolden

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

The Broncos honestly have their bases covered at wide receiver. In two wide receiver sets it should be Courtland Sutton at split end and Jerry Jeudy at flanker. They can then bring in KJ Hamler as a field stretching flanker and move Jeudy to the slot if they want. Or they could bring Tim Patrick in to play split end and slide either Jeudy or Sutton into the slot. Montreal Washington is depth and their return guy. So really they just need depth (maybe Payton brings in one of his guys). The key players are likely fairly safe for 2023 at least so don’t expect anything crazy in free agency or the draft.

Broncos Tight Ends

Overview: 

The Broncos have two tight ends under contract and one signed to reserve/future contracts. 

Greg Dulcich - age 22

Contract: Greg Dulcich was drafted in the third round in 2022 so he’d under contract through 2025.

Outlook: There were rumors in the off-season that Dulcich could take the starting job outright and those rumors proved to be true. He was injured at the beginning and end of the season but he flashed with four games of 8+ targets and couple games crackign 80 yards receiving. 

Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - The time to buy was honestly last season when the new regime traded Noah Fant and draft Dulcich. He’s what we had to say about the pick last May and the new tight end room.

Now, we didn’t know that Okwuegbunam would be a straight-up healthy scratch at times but, when you look at any tight end room, the guy who is a converted wide receiver is usually the favorite to get the pass work. And right now that is Duclch.

Albert Okwuegbunam - age 24

Contract: Albert Okwuegbunam is on the last year of his rookie deal and then he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2024.

Outlook: What a rollercoaster ride this way. He was buried behind Noah Fant on the depth chart. His value then skyrocketed when Fant was traded only for it to come crashing down with his usage in 2022. It surprised a lot of people that he had his worst statistical year this year when Fant was gone.

Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - This might surprise some people but you can actually likely add Albert O off waivers in many leagues or buy for incredibly cheap. This guy is a freak athlete with speed in the 98th percentile for the position so the upside is there if another team wants to take a shot. We have to remember that a guy like Delanie Walker was buried on depth charts until he was THIRTY years old before having multiple TE1 seasons. It could very well be that Nathaniel Hackett didn’t like him or he wasn’t a fit for the offense but guess what? Nathaniel Hackett was fired before he could even finish one season. Interim head coach Jerry Rosburg even said that he didn’t understand why Okwuegbunam wasn’t playing so we’re willing to take a shot on other coaches maybe feeling the same way.

RESERVE/FUTURE:

Hunter Thedford

FREE AGENTS:

Eric Tomlinson, Eric Saubert

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

For the 2023 season, they have a tight end that skews pass catching in Greg Dulcich and tight end that skews blocking in Albert Okwuegbunam so they really just need some depth. Since Albert O could slide over into a pass catching role with an injury to Dulcich, I expect the depth guy to skew blocking. Bringing back one of Eric Tomlinson or Eric Saubert would do the trick. Chris Manhertz briefly spent some time with the Saints or a guy like Mycole Pruitt would do the trick.

Follow Andrew Cooper on Twitter @CoopAFiasco for more NFL and fantasy football insights and stay tuned as we hit on all 32 NFL teams in this series leading into NFL free agency!

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