2022 NFL Draft Trade Impact: A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown
Wow! After a wild NFL offseason that saw guys like Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Davante Adams, and Khalil Mack all traded, the 2022 NFL Draft followed suit with a couple of huge trades for draft picks. Specifically, the Tennessee Titans traded A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles while the Baltimore Ravens traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals. So, let’s take a second here to digest just what these trades mean for fantasy football.
Baltimore Ravens Trade Marquise Brown to Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens use more personnel groups than any other team in the league. Ask yourself which player played the most backfield snaps last year besides Lamar Jackson. You probably wouldn’t guess fullback Patrick Ricard, but that’s actually the answer, as he logged 43% of the snaps. That’s a big part of why wide receivers in that Baltimore offense might not be as valuable as they are in others.
Let’s say you have a base offensive set of five linemen, a quarterback, a running back, a tight end, and three wide receivers. When the Ravens bring in a second tight end, a wide receiver comes out. When they bring in a fullback, another wide receiver comes out. And that’s how it goes down in Baltimore. The leading wide receiver in terms of snap percentage last year was Marquise Brown, with 74.4% of the snaps. The next closest was Rashod Bateman at 48.6% – not even half of the snaps. If they believe in Bateman, he can be the full-time guy and the rest of the Ravens' receivers will continue to be ancillary pieces.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are on the far end of the spectrum from the Ravens. Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense ideally uses four-wide receiver sets (though running Zach Ertz out wide for 63% of his snaps gets the job done too). They have DeAndre Hopkins, who will be on the field at all times, at split end or flanker. AJ Green will play as a flanker. Marquise Brown is now the field-stretcher. Rondale Moore is a slot gadget guy. Zach Ertz plays both TE and slot. That’s more than enough weapons to run the offense but, even if Marquise Brown is the inevitable replacement for AJ Green, it’s a crowded offense.
Let’s even say, hypothetically, AJ Green is done and Marquise Brown takes the role opposite of DeAndre Hopkins. Even just that type of setup can really thin out the targets. Brown goes from being the focal point of the Ravens' pass attack to one of four in this one (and certainly behind Hopkins at least). Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz are both low aDot, volume-dependent players so it makes their upside quite a bit murkier as well. Ertz, who ran a 4.76 forty-yard dash even in his prime, isn’t one to generate much YAC – so he needs volume. Plus, Moore had an average depth of target (aDot) of 1.3 on the SEASON. He had eight games with a negative aDot, meaning his passes were exclusively caught behind the line of scrimmage. Those guys both need volume to succeed and it will be hard to find that with Hopkins, Brown, and Green in the mix.
Winners: Kyler Murray, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Devin Duvernay
Losers: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, AJ Green, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz
Tennessee Titans Trade A.J. Brown to Philadelphia Eagles
Tennessee Titans
The Titans apparently made it clear that they weren’t going to pay A.J. Brown the money he wanted, so they decide to cash out now and get something back before the bill came due. Had they simply held onto him until free agency, the Titans would have simply collected a third-round comp pick. Instead, they got the 18th overall pick and pick No. 104 (4th round) in this draft from the Eagles. Tennessee then promptly used No. 18 on Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks. The hope here is that the Titans can pull their own version of what the Minnesota Vikings did in trading Stefon Diggs then immediately drafting Justin Jefferson. It’s not always a fairy book ending like that, however.
Philadelphia Eagles
The seat that Jalen Hurts sits on just became the hottest one in the league. With DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and Dallas Goedert in Philadelphia, there are no excuses left to be made. Jason Kelce is back, Lane Johnson is back, and backup quarterback Gardner Minshew is still there breathing down his neck.
The two guys that take the biggest hits here in fantasy are Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert. At the end of the day, the vast majority of NFL offenses can only support two fantasy-relevant pass catchers at most. In fact, we’ve done some research on this and there are far more instances of teams having either one or zero relevant pass-catchers than there are three. So, in order to prop up one of Goedert or Reagor for fantasy, you need to bet against one of A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. We typically bet on what’s most likely to occur.
Winners: Jalen Hurts, Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Austin Hooper
Losers: Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert, Zach Pascal
Related Links:
- NFL Draft Live 2022 - First Round Reactions & Analysis
- 2022 NFL Draft Live Tracker - Every First Round NFL Draft Pick & Analysis
- 2022 NFL Free Agency: Melvin Gordon Re-Signs with Broncos & Javonte Williams Impact
Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.