The 2022 NFL DFS season is finally back and we kick off with an interesting slate of games in Week 1 that see some expected low-scoring totals in the early slate of games on Sunday. Utilizing NFL Vegas Odds is a helpful way to identify which games or teams to target in NFL DFS as well as our NFL DFS Projections, NFL DFS Lineup Generator, and more! Before we dive into this week’s Defense/Special Teams to target in DFS, here are a few guidelines and tips for choosing a D/ST.

  • Target games or teams with low scoring expectancy. If a team is heavily favored in a matchup where Vegas and the betting market aren’t projecting a lot of points to be scored, then the favorite is in a good spot for our purposes.

 

  • Understand that touchdowns are hard to predict. No, I don’t mean on the offensive side of the ball. Typically, the D/ST’s that break the slate every weak are the ones forcing turnovers at a higher rate but also the ones that can score a defensive or special teams touchdown. I’ll never outright pick a team to score that way, but it’s an excellent bonus if you do roster them.

 

  • More often than not, it’s better to spend down at the position. I recommend defenses from all over the pricing spectrum. But this is a position with high variance as alluded to in the last section. Because of that the old mantra of “Any Given Sunday” comes in to play. I like spending down at this position and allocating salary elsewhere to positions that can break the slate or at least provide a higher floor.

 

Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!

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NFL DFS D/ST Top Plays

San Francisco 49ers

If you’re paying up for a D/ST this week, the 49ers are an easy target. They boast a great defense and a lethal pass rush against maybe the worst offensive line in the league and a second-year quarterback. To be fair to Justin Fields, he’s looked good so far in the preseason. But this will be a stiff test and outside of Darnell Mooney, he doesn’t have a ton of weapons at his disposal. The pressure the 49ers can get on Fields will be vital. Pressure leads to sacks, which the 49ers collected in bunches last season. If there’s an argument against San Francisco, aside from the price tag, it’s that they only posted double-digit fantasy points three times during the 2021 regular season. The 49ers are favored by a touchdown and the over/under is currently sitting at 41.5 points. I won’t write the Baltimore Ravens up in depth, but they’re a strong pivot off the 49ers that can save a little salary. The Ravens are favored by a touchdown against the Jets but Vegas expects more scoring in that matchup. The Jets offensive line is improved, but they lost Mekhi Becton in the preseason and replaced him with Duane Brown. I actually think Joe Flacco starting on Sunday could be a good thing for the Jets offense and they’re young stars such as Elijah Moore and Breece Hall. However, it’s a very tough revenge game narrative for Flacco and Co.

 

New Orleans Saints

It’s a little odd to me that the Saints are only the fifth-most expensive D/ST on DraftKings at just $3,700. That’s not a terrible price tag for a defense that was top ten in sacks, pressure rate, and tackles for loss. They didn’t force a ton of turnovers a year ago, but they did add Tyrann Mathieu in the offseason and above all else, the matchup is fantastic. Sure, it’s on the road and anything could happen, but the Falcons offense is potentially one of the worst in the league. They should be able to generate pressure on the Falcons underwhelming unit and this game has one of the lowest expected totals on the board. 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Price Plays

Carolina Panthers 

Perhaps this is grasping at the low hanging fruit, but why not? This is a huge game for Carolina on both sides of the ball. Cleveland’s defense may be better than Carolina’s, but the Queen City Kitties are a better value in my opinion. Carolina possesses enough weapons on offense and the revenge narrative for Baker Mayfield makes me want to stay away from paying up for Cleveland. Carolina may have lost Haason Reddick and his 11 sacks from a year ago, but there’s still plenty of talent on the defensive line and in the secondary. The Browns will also be starting Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Brissett is a fine backup, but not someone that strikes fear in opposing defenses. He’s made 37 starts in his career and only has 36 career touchdowns with 17 interceptions and he doesn’t run very much. He tends to sit in the pocket which might explain his 8.1% sack rate in his career. Carolina’s a strong mid-range team to target on DraftKings and FanDuel, but they’re a great bargain on Yahoo.

 

Miami Dolphins

The price for the Fins is probably most palatable on DraftKings and FanDuel, but especially on DraftKings. The Dolphins are -2.5-point favorites and while the over/under is a bit high at 46.5 points, it’s not enough to scare me away. New England is 2-7 in their last nine games in Miami, so they decided to head down to South Beach earlier than normal to get adjusted to the humidity. Miami was arguably a top ten defense a year ago because they collected sacks, had a respectable turnover rate, and they allowed opponents to score a touchdown about one in every five offensive drives last year according to Football Outsiders. Additionally, all reports out of training camp are that the Patriots offense looks quite inept, especially the offensive line. As a Patriots fan, this is upsetting. As a DFS player that can put personal feelings aside, this excites me considering the Dolphins are a team trending in the right direction. Josh McDaniels is gone and there are concerns about the offensive play calling in New England. In their two matchups in 2021, the Dolphins held the Patriots offense to just 40 points total and Miami forced five turnovers.

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Value Plays

Washington Commanders

The Commanders will likely be everyone’s top paydown option at D/ST. They only returned double-digit fantasy points twice last season with the latter instance coming in Week 18 against the Giants who were tanking for a top five draft pick. It’s also worth mentioning that Washington will be without Chase Young for this Week 1 matchup, but overall the appeal of targeting this team against the Jaguars will garner a lot of attention. The Commanders are only favored by about a field goal and the over/under is at 44 points. The Jaguars offensive line is still a work in progress and the pass catching options for Trevor Lawrence, while better than a year ago, still aren’t quite the creme de la creme of the NFL. This group will be fine for Cash games since they open up salary well, but don’t go overboard with exposure here for GPP’s.

 

New York Giants

Finding value will be a bit of a challenge this week as there’s this level of mystery surrounding both sides of the ball. Vegas only has the Giants/Titans game projected for about 44 points. Not bad for what we’re targeting, but the Titans are favored by about a touchdown. If Kayvon Thibodeaux’s good to go then I feel better about this play. The Titans offensive line has fallen off in recent years and the Titans lost A.J. Brown in the offseason, but drafted Treylon Burks. Burks had an up-and-down camp but still has plenty of upside and free agent acquisition, Robert Woods, is coming back from injury. So aside from Derrick Henry there are question marks with the Titans offense. This isn’t a slam dunk, but there’s some intrigue here as a cheap paydown D/ST especially for the 4:00pm ET slate.

 

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings D/ST was torched in both matchups last year against Green Bay. In two games, the Vikings allowed almost 950 yards of offense and 68 points. That’s terrible. But if we’re paying down at D/ST then we have to take some stands. Davante Adams is gone and the Packers are without a clear cut big target for Aaron Rodgers. Now that doesn’t mean they don’t have options. Aaron Jones is still a threat and they should get more usage out of AJ Dillon. But Allen Lazard is questionable to play this week and Christian Watson was absent for a good amount of training camp. Maybe it’s the Sammy Watkins show, or perhaps Rodgers tries to turn back the clock with Randall Cobb. Given the question marks surrounding the Packers, it’s worth throwing the Vikings in to save salary and maybe they can return seven or eight points for our DFS lineups.

 

NFL DFS D/ST Fades

Los Angeles Chargers

I love the Chargers if I’m being completely honest. There’s great talent on this defense up front and in the secondary. I just don’t love that they play in the AFC West against three other high-powered offenses. They open the season against the Raiders who now have Josh McDaniels as their head coach following a tumultuous 2021 season. The projected total is over 52 points according to Vegas and despite this being a “home” game for the Chargers, I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if Raiders fans from Vegas, Oakland, or even ones that stuck around in L.A. flooded the seats with black and silver. Is there a contrarian argument to be made here for the Bolts? Sure. The defense is loaded with talent and the Vegas offensive line could be one of the worst in the league. But whether the Raiders can compete in this game or if they put up production in garbage time, I don’t really see the Chargers as an optimal defense this weekend. Update: As a last note before submitting this piece on Thursday morning, it doesn’t sound like JC Jackson will be suiting up which is a big bump to the Raiders aerial attack.

 

Atlanta Falcons

Maybe it goes without saying, but the Falcons are an easy fade. It’s not that I don’t like the personnel, I think they’re heading in a good direction. However, the price tag is tough to swallow on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are easier targets priced below the Dirty Birds that have arguably a better floor and ceiling. Going against the Saints and their barrage of weapons such as Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave is a tall task. Not to mention, Jameis Winston can still help an offense put up points. Whether you’re paying up or down from Atlanta, there are better options in either direction.


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