NFL DFS Week 1 Dart Board: Top Value Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Published: Sep 10, 2023
Welcome to the DFS Dart Board for NFL Week 1!
If you're new to Fantasy Alarm, the DFS Dart Board is an add-on to the Playbook that I started a few years ago. It came about when I was building GPP lineups and realized I needed more salary relief. As I dug through my notes to see who stood out the most among those players at a more affordable price, it hit me. When I put players in the Playbook, I am thinking primarily about cash lineup plays -- guys with a high floor who I could conceivably put into my core-group and build a lineup around. After those players, I would mix in a handful of guys who had boatloads of upside and were in soft match-ups, but I wasn’t paying as much attention to their salary as I should have. And that's where the Dart Board came into play.
Every now and then, when building lineups while using particular stacks, you need some salary relief. You need a guy who may not be minimally priced, but low enough to give you the flexibility you need to get someone like Justin Jefferson or Christian McCaffrey in as a flex play or something. Occasionally you may see a min-priced QB or TE in here, but more often than not, this space is reserved for running backs and wide receivers who are below $6,000 on FanDuel or $5,000 or lower on DraftKings.
Now while we call this a Dart Board, keep in mind that every player has been carefully researched. We're not up here picking players all willy-nilly, desperately hoping they hit. We're looking for the cheapest bargains possible who still have the strongest potential to give you at least a 3-5x return on what you pay.
All set? Great. Let's get to it and while you do, maybe give a listen to this week's NFL DFS Show with me & Jon Impemba.
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Sam Howell | TB @ MIN Sun 1:00 | 4900 | 7100 |
If we're looking to fit some of the big boys in at RB and WR in a GPP lineup then paying down for Howell doesn't seem so crazy. After all, if you're in on Terry McLaurin amd Jahan Dotson then why not be bullish on Howell, especially in a match-up this soft. We could see more running in the second half if the Commanders grab the lead but that lead will be there because of Howell anyway. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
QB | Derek Carr | TEN @ NO Sun 1:00 | 5300 | 7000 |
Another paydown at QB if you need and feel weird about putting your trust into Howell. There may be some trepidation because of the presence of Taysom Hill, but Carr gets a typically soft Titans secondary and has some premier weapons in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Juwan Johnson. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
RB | Deon Jackson | BUF @ NYJ Mon 8:15 | 4100 | 5600 |
With Zack Moss officially ruled out for Sunday, Jackson pops as the Colts lead running back. Yes, Anthony Richardson is likely to poach some carries on his own, but in a heavy RPO scheme Jackson should be well-utilized as the Colts look to establish the run. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy | ||||
WR | Marvin Mims | LV @ DEN Sun 4:25 | 3000 | 4700 |
Even if Jerry Jeudy suits up, Mims should be fairly involved in the Broncos passing attack. He'l serve as the third receiver in a system that uses plenty of three-receiver sets, so if the coverage is more focused on Courtland Sutton and Jeudy, Mims could see some decent targets. I would consider him cash game viable if Jeudy is out, so keep an eye on the situation. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | Jayden Reed | GB @ CHI Sun 4:25 | 3000 | 5000 |
With no Christian Watson, Reed will be the guy who stretches the field for the Packers and based on what we've seen from him and Jordan Love over the past few days, there is a solid rapport. The min price is going to allow you some real heavy-hitters in your lineup so if Reed pops, the return value for your team is going to be huge. Game Type: GPP Weather: Rain | ||||
TE | Kylen Granson | PHI @ NE Sun 4:25 | 2900 | 4200 |
There's Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, but with no Jelani Woods, Granson could be a very intriguing option. You won't see high volume from him but you could see some nice red zone looks. If you've been reading my work for years, you can categorize Granson as the potential new Higbee special-- one catch for eight yards might not be great but if it goes for a TD, at this price, it pays off. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy |
Sam Howell, QB | ||||
If we're looking to fit some of the big boys in at RB and WR in a GPP lineup then paying down for Howell doesn't seem so crazy. After all, if you're in on Terry McLaurin amd Jahan Dotson then why not be bullish on Howell, especially in a match-up this soft. We could see more running in the second half if the Commanders grab the lead but that lead will be there because of Howell anyway. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Derek Carr, QB | ||||
Another paydown at QB if you need and feel weird about putting your trust into Howell. There may be some trepidation because of the presence of Taysom Hill, but Carr gets a typically soft Titans secondary and has some premier weapons in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Juwan Johnson. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
Deon Jackson, RB | ||||
With Zack Moss officially ruled out for Sunday, Jackson pops as the Colts lead running back. Yes, Anthony Richardson is likely to poach some carries on his own, but in a heavy RPO scheme Jackson should be well-utilized as the Colts look to establish the run. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy | ||||
Marvin Mims, WR | ||||
Even if Jerry Jeudy suits up, Mims should be fairly involved in the Broncos passing attack. He'l serve as the third receiver in a system that uses plenty of three-receiver sets, so if the coverage is more focused on Courtland Sutton and Jeudy, Mims could see some decent targets. I would consider him cash game viable if Jeudy is out, so keep an eye on the situation. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Jayden Reed, WR | ||||
With no Christian Watson, Reed will be the guy who stretches the field for the Packers and based on what we've seen from him and Jordan Love over the past few days, there is a solid rapport. The min price is going to allow you some real heavy-hitters in your lineup so if Reed pops, the return value for your team is going to be huge. Game Type: GPP Weather: Rain | ||||
Kylen Granson, TE | ||||
There's Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, but with no Jelani Woods, Granson could be a very intriguing option. You won't see high volume from him but you could see some nice red zone looks. If you've been reading my work for years, you can categorize Granson as the potential new Higbee special-- one catch for eight yards might not be great but if it goes for a TD, at this price, it pays off. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy |