2022 Fantasy Football Target Report: Can Allen Lazard Keep Up His Production in Week 5?

Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no receiving yards, no receiving touchdowns, and no receptions without a target.

We want the players on our rosters in fantasy football who will earn these targets because targets are the most important thing to look at when trying to separate one pass-catcher from another on a base level. Sure, the player that earned 160 targets may be a better fantasy option than the player who earned 110, but that doesn’t take into account the offenses these players are in, the target share percentages on their particular team, how deep down the field these targets were earned, and so on.

Each week, we’ll take a weekly team-by-team look into these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. 

We're through four weeks of the NFL season, and there's now plenty of data to sort through before bye weeks start, so we'll go through some team and player usage tendencies here in our Target Report. Before we get into the Target Report for Week 4, let's dive into a legend of terms we'll be referencing.

Start Your Studs: Players you should be starting in all formats, regardless of matchup. Use your judgment in shallower leagues where players who are typically startable are plentiful.

Dump ‘Em: Players that you should be dropping from your rosters. Use your judgment in deeper leagues where players with usefulness on waivers aren’t as plentiful.

NFL Week 4 Target Report

Arizona Cardinals

It’s hard to judge the Cardinals when they haven’t had their full complement of pass-catchers, but it’s a week-to-week game, and that’s how we’ve got to judge. If you drafted Kyler Murray, he’s still been QB6 this season despite some of the obstacles the team has faced.

Rondale Moore returned to the Cardinals’ lineup in Week 4 to immediately run 94% of routes compared to Greg Dortch’s 46%. The fact that Moore jumped right into an elite route share bodes well for him. Moore’s season-long aDOT last season was much maligned by the fantasy community at 1.3 yards, but Moore’s aDOT in Week 4 was 10.3 yards. If the Cardinals are going to use him more downfield, we have to be more bullish on his projection moving forward. Granted, it can always reset, but for an NFL wide receiver, it realistically doesn’t get much worse than 1.3 yards.

Week 4 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, James Conner, Kyler Murray (for now)

Dump ‘Em: Greg Dortch now that Rondale Moore is back in the lineup.

• Don’t forget about De’Andre Hopkins, who is eligible to return in Week 7!
• With Moore’s immediate insertion into the offense with an elite workload and increased aDOT, Moore becomes a very interesting flex play with room for much more.

Atlanta Falcons

We (I) talk about “leather helmet” offenses all the time, and make no mistake, the Falcons are one of them. Atlanta has the second-lowest pass rate in the NFL so far (44.5%), and in Week 4, Marcus Mariota only have 19 pass attempts and completed just SEVEN.

If you want to see how unprecedented this lack of pass volume is for the Falcons:

If you roster Kyle Pitts or Drake London, you’re not a happy camper right now. 

I roster both in a ton of leagues.

I am not a happy camper.

Week 4 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Not in this economy.

Dump ‘Em: Nobody we’re outright dumping.

• It’s got to get better for Kyle Pitts and Drake London at some point, right? What we want is more pass volume from the Falcons, and with their next three games being at Tampa Bay, vs. San Francisco, and at Cincinnati, it’s reasonable to expect Atlanta to be in trailing scripts in one or more of these games to give their weapons some volume that’s desperately needed.
• Cordarrelle Patterson hit the IR list with a knee injury, so that’s going to open up the run game to Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley — a split to some capacity. Huntley is the bigger back at 5-foot-10, 230 pounds, so may be an option if the Falcons get inside the red zone. Allgeier ran more routes and has increased his workload little by little each week. Both are good additions to your fantasy roster, but I prefer Allgeier to get the bulk of the work.

Baltimore Ravens

Rain in the forecast kind of hampered a bit of the upside we were hoping for in this clash of two AFC powers. If you game-stacked this matchup in DFS, you were #not happy.

J.K. Dobbins scored both touchdowns — one rushing and one receiving. Justice Hill left the game with a hamstring injury, which left Dobbins to shoulder most of the workload but not to the degree we were hoping for from Week 3 to Week 4. Dobbins’ routes actually dipped slightly this week, but snaps went up to 50%. Baby steps.

With only 144 passing yards and 29 pass attempts, the conditions didn’t exactly lend themselves to much in terms of passing volume or deep plays.

Rashod Bateman’s unexplained tumble in routes from 79% in Week 3 to this week’s 53% was puzzling without an injury to blame. By comparison, fellow receivers Devin Duvernay (68%) and Demarcus Robinson (58%) ran more routes than Bateman, which is very confusing. I’m willing to give Bateman a pass for a week on that.

Week 4 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, J.K. Dobbins, Rashod Bateman

Dump ‘Em: The Isaiah Likely dream is dead. There’s not enough volume to drive a third pass-catcher consistently in Baltimore. Not feeling Devin Duvernay for any concrete fantasy-friendly output outside of contingency scenarios.

Buffalo Bills

On the other side of the disappointing upside that was Ravens/Bills, the Bills had to come back thanks in part to John Harbaugh giving old network studio analysts more ammunition to fire away against analytics. Harbaugh decided to go for a fourth-and-goal instead of a field goal that would have put them up 23-20. If they had converted we would be praising Harbaugh’s “gusty” decision. Instead, he failed and the Bills ended up winning the game. Now people can’t stop talking about it. C'est la vie.

The Bills were very flat across their distribution with no true standouts among them minus an Isaiah McKenzie touchdown. It was interesting to see Khalil Shakir get involved more in the offense to the detriment of Jamison Crowder so we’ll see if that’s a one-week blip on the radar or if Crowder has been supplanted.

Week 4 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Devin Singletary 

Dump ‘Em: If Jamison Crowder is still hanging around on the back of your roster, cut bait.

• Devin Singletary is IT in this backfield. Last week, he took a whopping 79% of routes and 88% of snaps. We can start Singletary confidently as a mid-range RB2 in an elite offense that will live in the red zone. 
• Gabe Davis is still hobbling around with his injured ankle yet is still running virtually every route in this offense. He’s playing a bit hurt right now and his stats are suffering a bit because of it. I’m downgrading him to a high-end WR3 but in most instances, he should continue to be started by virtue of the offense he plays in and the opportunity afforded to him.

Carolina Panthers

The things I could say about the Panthers offense could fill encyclopedias. I’ll just say the actual target volume for Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore was (as diplomatically as I can possibly be) a step in the right direction.

McCaffrey and Moore combined for 56% of the targets last week and for McCaffrey specifically, got back to what we’re expecting of him during drafts. He wasn’t great on the ground whatsoever but caught all nine of his targets for 81 yards and a touchdown on 82% of routes. 

Moore runs almost every route anyway, but he led the Panthers in targets with 11 yet was still a bit inefficient (thank the quarterback for most of that) as he only brought in six targets for 50 yards.

Week 4 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Christian McCaffrey

Dump ‘Em: Robbie Anderson is on the borderline as this offense is rarely able to support two pass-catchers let alone three.

Chicago Bears

If you’re expecting a nuanced discussion of one of the worst passing teams in NFL history to this point, you’re in the wrong place. Week 4 saw the Bears mix it up with the New York Giants, who were willing participants in this run-first “leather helmet” game thanks to injuries to several wide receivers.

Darnell Mooney saw his most productive game of the season with 94 receiving yards — a more than 300% increase from his season-long yardage total in ONE GAME. If that doesn’t tell you the state of this Bears' passing game, I don’t know what will.

Stay away.

Week 4 Chicago Bears Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: *laugh track*

Dump ‘Em: There is nobody here in this Chicago Bears’ receiving corps that is worth waiting on for this offense to turn over a new leaf. Not Mooney, not Cole Kmet, nobody. This is who they are.

• The run game is the only thing that works in Chicago. Khalil Herbert totaled over 100 yards from scrimmage on 20 opportunities. It remains to be seen how many more starts (if any) Herbert will have before he cedes the work back to David Montgomery, but at the very least, Herbert should gain more of a standalone role to make him usable with the bye weeks coming up. With the Bears being so run-heavy at 62.1% run play percentage (the highest percentage in the NFL), there’s room for two ball carriers regardless of the game script.

Cincinnati Bengals

The thesis behind drafting Tee Higgins in fantasy as high as he was going — in the third round and sometimes at the end of the second round; in my opinion, his proper value — was that you could get access to the Bengals offense in a cheaper way than drafting Ja’Marr Chase in the top-six picks of the first round. Higgins out-targeted and out-scored Chase from Weeks 11-18, and while Chase has outperformed Higgins in each of those statistics in the first four games of 2022, the difference is negligible. Chase and Higgins have combined for 45% of the total target share this season on the Bengals, and while we know Chase is a bonafide WR1, Higgins is in that category too.

Higgins was the one that smashed in Week 4 with a 7-124-1 line on nine targets, while Chase had a solid game (4-81, 97% of routes) but not a ton of targets (six) on the night. Defensive shifts and rolling coverage to a certain receiver is going to be very hard to do with these two WR1s. 

Week 4 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon (for now)

Dump ‘Em: Nobody we’re outright dumping.

• It’s a tough click to set Tyler Boyd in your lineup each week with Higgins/Chase taking up a ton of real estate, but based on the strength of the offense, he’s a solid flex at best. 
• Joe Mixon is what Joe Mixon is, a compiler. He’s averaging 2.7 yards per carry and has one of the worst rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) totals (-39) I’ve seen. No running back has touched the ball more through four games than Mixon has but based on his volume, he should be scoring a LOT more, and he’s not. Perhaps he’ll see some positive regression his way — the Bengals offense is a good offense and allows for a lot of high-value touches — but right now, he’s not converting those high-leverage looks and targets into much.

Cleveland Browns

This is a pass-catching group of low upside. The bad weeks will be BAD, the good weeks won’t touch the great wide receiver weeks in most instances.

For instance: Amari Cooper.

Look, when you get shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell and get knocked back into the shadow realm, it’s gonna hurt for fantasy purposes. Cooper will be fine most weeks, but it brought a couple of Browns out of hibernation to post solid stat lines; one of which people started (David Njoku) and one of which people did not (Donovan Peoples-Jones).

Njoku ran 97% of routes and put up a 5-73 line. He’s going to be the second pass-catcher most weeks so I feel much better about starting him; also the fact he plays a much shallower position for fantasy.

Peoples-Jones saw most of the attention from Jacoby Brissett here because Terrell was locking down Cooper with a 5-71 line on a team-high nine targets. He’s running enough routes but he’s still very boom-or-bust. The previous two weeks, he earned a combined four targets and only caught one on 84% of routes. Hard to trust him.

Week 4 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb

Dump ‘Em: Nobody we’re outright dumping.

Dallas Cowboys

Michael Gallup returned to the lineup for the Cowboys and pushed into 83% routes range while catching a touchdown on minimal volume, so at least for the routes and scoring discussion, that’s a very good sign for him moving forward. Gallup takes a little bit off the top of Noah Brown (76% routes) but in games where Dallas has to pass, Brown will very much be involved. He just becomes much harder to start in fantasy.

Lamb = still great. With most backup quarterbacks, it’s like they’ve never heard of the top target in the offense. Cooper Rush is still very good for Lamb, who posted 6-97 on eight targets as the unquestioned top target.

Week 4 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Ezekiel Elliott (listed under less protest than last week), Dak Prescott (when healthy)

Dump ‘Em: Nobody we’re outright dumping.

• While flashing at times, Tony Pollard is still pretty boom or bust for fantasy purposes. He’s a solid flex and likely an important one once bye weeks hit.

Denver Broncos

The big news has to be Javonte Williams being lost for the season. Just as Williams was starting to separate from Melvin Gordon, something unfortunately like this happens. It’s a shame and we’ll likely see Williams back on an NFL by mid-season in 2023.

Gordon gets a shot at taking over the full backfield role but Mike Boone and recent signee Latavius Murray will mix in as well.

For the pass-catchers, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy were studs — no surprise. Both had touchdowns and ran virtually every route.

Albert Okwuegbunam played one snap. ONE. The fact that he’s playing behind clunky blocking tight ends Eric Saubert and Eric Tomlinson bodes well for one rookie tight end in particular:

If you have room and need a tight end who may get some run with a receiving (and downfield) profile, Greg Dulcich is your guy. Plus, the hair.

Week 4 Denver Broncos Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson

Dump ‘Em: Javonte Williams is the drop here as he’s out for the season with a torn ACL. Albert Okwuegbunam is an easy drop as well.

Detroit Lions

Another week, another absolutely wild game script. Jared Goff has been fantastic and didn’t have Amon-Ra St. Brown or D’Andre Swift in Week 4.

The main cogs that DID play destroyed worlds, including Week 4’s TE1 T.J. Hockenson. When posed with questions about Hockenson this offseason, my main talking point with him is that I wasn’t sure if he could jump into the elite tier of tight ends despite being on a team with (at the time) obvious need for receiving talent. Hockenson was taken with high draft capital but never has been considered elite, but always just a rung or two below. There’s nothing wrong with that at all; those players have long careers. 

A bit of that elite ceiling came out today with a scorched-earth-like 8-179-2 on 12 targets and 83% routes. The Lions needed him to step up and he delivered. These games are “turning point” games despite the lack of a few playmakers. We’ll see if Hockenson can build on that.

Josh Reynolds earned 21% of targets en route to a 7-81-1 performance on eight targets (91% routes). With the Lions missing D.J. Chark in addition to the aforementioned St. Brown and Swift, Reynolds stepped up to earn targets in a big way.

Week 4 Detroit Lions Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: D’Andre Swift (when healthy), Amon-Ra St. Brown (when healthy), T.J. Hockenson, Jamaal Williams (as long as Swift isn’t playing)

Dump ‘Em: Nobody we’re outright dumping.

• I’m holding D.J. Chark until he’s playing again and Reynolds even when the full complement of weapons is back and healthy to see how these roles shake out.
• Do not forget about Jameson Williams, the Lions’ first-round pick this past April, who is recovering from a torn ACL and should be back towards the latter half of the season. He’s a potential league-winning stash.

Green Bay Packers

Romeo Doubs is THAT DUDE. The narrative that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw to rookies or makes him earn their trust through numerous trials (one would venture to guess) has been squashed a little bit as Doubs ran routes on 95% of dropbacks and caught 5-of-8 targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. That touchdown was something Rodgers would run with Davante Adams and a bit of a timing route, which shows the two are definitely on the same page in the early going. You truly love to see it.

With Doubs and Allen Lazard, who earned some target volume (!) in this game (6-116 on eight targets, 97% routes), Rodgers has guys he can lean on. The hope is that Christian Watson can join them but he at least scored on a nifty run play. Watson is only running 19% of routes so he’ a non-starter and probably should be on most rosters, but the creativity the Packers are using to get him the ball is very encouraging. I said on Lightning Round yesterday that I think Doubs and Watson have a shot at evoking memories of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

It’s very early, so far so good in Packerland.

Week 4 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Aaron Rodgers, Romeo Doubs

Dump ‘Em: I’m just not sure there’s enough upside anymore to expect anything more than a few catches and some yards from Randall Cobb. It’s time to cut bait. Even if Robert Tonyan scored this week, he’s not running enough routes (60%) and only earned two targets. You’re hoping and praying for a touchdown.

Houston Texans

I’ll be 100% transparent with you, dear readers.

It’s never been much fun to do a write-up for the Texans because it’s been monotonous, the information doesn’t change that much, and we just want this team to overhaul the entire operation to infuse some talent here.

That said, Dameon Pierce asserted himself to the run of 131 yards on the ground, six catches for eight yards, and a 75-yard touchdown. At least we have some excitement!

Pierce jumped up to a 70% snap share and while he’s still sharing the receiving role with Rex Burkhead, it’s going to be a sizable gap just because of Pierce having explosive-play capability. Which is a lost art apparently in Houston. Burkhead caught a touchdown on 39% of routes and isn’t going away, but there’s not going to be any rushing work for him — it’s all about the pass down work.

Brandin Cooks was (predictably) the top target here with 87% of routes with a 7-57-1 line. Even Nico Collins chipped in with 43% of the air yards and 3-82 on five targets.

Week 4 Houston Texans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Brandin Cooks, Dameon Pierce

Dump ‘Em: Nobody we’re outright dumping.

• After routes shares in the 15%, 12%, and 9% over the past three weeks, O.J. Howard vaulted into the 67% range which is something to keep watching as with the barren landscape that is tight end, Howard could find himself some targets here. He earned five and only caught 2-27, but racked up over 30% of the air yards in a more downfield role (16-yard aDOT) for the Texans. 

Indianapolis Colts

Yet another week of the Colts being the Colts.

If you’re familiar with this article, you know I typically write “Michael Pittman earned the targets and nobody else matters, the end.” That’s usually the case here.

While Pittman did “lead” the Colts in targets with six, Alec Pierce and Mo Alie-Cox also earned as many targets as Pittman this week.

Pierce (42% routes) didn’t make any sort of leap in routes after missing Week 2 with a concussion, but he was very efficient on a per-route basis with a 35% TPRR. It’s predictive stats like TPRR that give you the jump on players who are in line for more targets. Especially when Pierce led the offense with 37% of the air yards. Indianapolis has been looking for a long time at a cohort for Pittman and while Pierce may be in the running, we need to see more improvement in getting on the field first before anointing him as a fantasy-relevant player. That said, he should be rostered.

It’s tough to sort out these Colts tight ends when there’s three options that at least have attractive skillsets. Alie-Cox ran the most routes and snaps and caught all six balls from Matt Ryan for 85 yards and two touchdowns. We’ll see if Alie-Cox can hold off Kylen Granson and Britt Flinn’s favorite football son Jelani Woods.

Week 4 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Jonathan Taylor (when healthy), Michael Pittman

Dump ‘Em: If you’re still holding onto Parris Campbell, don’t. He’s a safe drop.

• With Jonathan Taylor ruled out for tonight’s game against the Denver Broncos, it’s likely Taylor’s touches are split up amongst three backs: Nyheim Hines, Deon Jackson, and veteran Phillip Lindsay. We can still depend on Hines for the receiving role and perhaps some more manufactured touches. That role is well-insulated. As far as the rushing component, it’s anybody’s guess, but I would venture to say Lindsay and his two career 1000-yard seasons would get the first crack. Nobody is stepping into Taylor’s hefty role, but if you’re starting Lindsay tonight, you’re hoping for 10-12 carries and a touchdown to make it worthwhile.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars only had 47 offensive snaps, which limits fantasy production. Add that to the weather issues that were present in Week 4 and you have a depressed offensive environment that caps the upside of the skill position players.

Jamal Agnew has been productive in spurts dating back to last season and scored twice on 56% routes as Zay Jones was absent in this contest. Besides that and Christian Kirk’s inefficient day while stil earning targets (2-60 on nine targets, 96% routes), it was not a banner day for the Jaguars offense but the conditions were not exactly set up to be either. All full strength, they still look like an above-average offense who faced the Eagles who are on another plane of existence right now, so I’m giving them a pass here.

Week 4 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: James Robinson, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk

Dump ‘Em: Evan Engram is borderline droppable but he’s had some tough breaks the last couple of weeks with Derwin James’ coverage in Week 3 and now a low-volume weather game, but he’s got to produce soon. I don’t blame you though if you want to drop him despite the tight end position being so weak.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs’ pass-catchers were rotated much more than usual here with nobody besides Travis Kelce running as much as a 77% routes share. It’s not quite Baltimore Ravens-level personnel swapping and perhaps it had something to do the game script against Tampa Bay, but it’s something to note when we’re trying to figure out the upside of these pass-catchers.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (5-46 on seven targets, 72% routes) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-63 on five targets, 77% routes) each had middling games and Mecole Hardman saw his season-worst 44% of routes. Perhaps there’s something to that with Skyy Moore taking 26% of routes here? Hopefully there’s more meat on the bone here because as we’ve said, nobody jumping up to assert themselves outside of Kelce bodes well for a mid-season spike in workload for Skyy Moore with a path of little resistance ahead of him.

Week 4 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Dump ‘Em: Mecole Hardman is a safe drop here as a player who doesn’t earn targets and relies solely on chunk yardage and big plays. The quintessential “better in best ball”-type player that’s so hard to put into a lineup and hope for the best when his fantasy points floor is zero.

• It’s time to do some adjusting after four weeks and it’s clear the Chiefs want Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a thing, as he’s been one of the biggest surprises in fantasy this season. He has five touchdowns on the season and saw a season-high 21 opportunities in a positive game script throughout Week 4. He’s entered must-start territory on a dynamic Chiefs offense that has maybe disappointed a little bit in the passing game in terms of their non-Kelce weapons. CEH has shouldered that workload and performed admirably.

Las Vegas Raiders

Andrew Cooper made an excellent point in this week’s Lightning Round podcast (which you should DEFINITELY check out and subscribe!) about Josh Jacobs being our generation’s DeMarco Murray, a pending free agent that a team can run into the ground with usage. Jacobs ran a Christian McCaffrey-esque 89% of snaps in Week 4, had a whopping 34 opportunities (28 carries, six targets) for 177 total yards and two touchdowns. If the Raiders are going to lean on him to THIS degree, he needs to be started in every format from here on out. We thought these running backs were primed to share multiple slices of the pie with the possibly of head coach Josh McDaniels bring the Erhardt-Perkins offensive system to Las Vegas, but it turns out he’s just going to run Jacobs ragged.

Only five Raiders were targeted in Week 4, with Adams dominating the utilization with a 9-101 effort on 13 targets (41% air yards, 97% routes, 43% target share) and Jacobs chipping in with five catches on 62% of routes.

Darren Waller has yet to have that “Darren Waller” game we know, love, and come to expect, but since we know he has that in him, he has to be started every week.

Week 4 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs

Dump ‘Em: Nobody we’re outright dumping.

• Make sure you’re holding onto Hunter Renfrow as he returned to practice this week off of his concussion that sidelined him in Week 4. 

Los Angeles Chargers

With no Keenan Allen again for the third consecutive week, the Chargers’ passing game stayed pretty condensed up at the top with Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett. The difference here is that Ekeler tacked two rushing touchdowns and 60 rushing yards on top of his 6-49-1 line on seven targets.

Williams continues his even week dominance with a 7-120 line on 11 targets and 93% routes share.

I’m starting to draw the conclusion that the third non-Ekeler target in this offense may not be Josh Palmer as we all thought in the offseason, but actually Gerald Everett (62% of routes, 5-61-1). That was the bull case for drafting him in the late rounds and he’s made good on it as TE6 so far on the season. With three double-digit performances and a dud in Week 3 thrown in, coupled with a weak tight end position, he’s as close to a must-start as you can get without being one. The 62% routes this week (a season-low) is a bummer, but the production is there and he’s been efficient with it. Ride the wave.

Week 4 Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Mike Williams, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen (when healthy)

Dump ‘Em: When Keenan Allen gets back into the lineup, I’m likely cutting bait with Josh Palmer as he hasn’t done much with his increased opportunity and is really only a rare contingency-based wide receiver play in the mold of a Tyler Boyd, where he plays on a strong offense behind two strong options.

Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp is #good. Lather, rinse, repeat.

The only other player that’s earning any sort of consistent passing game work and putting up fantasy points is… Tyler Higbee? Then why did the Rams go out and pay Allen Robinson?

I don’t have an answer to the Robinson question, as all he’s done so far is score one touchdown in Week 2 and not earn more than six targets in any game so far this season. Robinson is running routes but it’s clear he’s not a focal point of this offense.

Higbee, however, is averaging 9.5 targets per game in 2022 and soaking up easy targets from Matthew Stafford. Sometimes, it’s just that easy in a tight end hellscape like we have right now. Higbee’s 14 targets in Week 4 is more targets than Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, and Cole Kmet have earned through all four of their games this season. For that alone, Higbee is a must-start fantasy option.

Week 4 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Cooper Kupp (duh), Tyler Higbee 

Dump ‘Em: Allen Robinson’s last stand (for me) was Week 4. It’s been a good ride. I’m dropping him. I’d expect the Rams to bring in a wide receiver given GM Les Snead’s aggressive ways of bringing in talent. I’m sure Snead still has Odell Beckham’s phone number somewhere.

• This run game is just a split where neither back is going anywhere or taking advantage of any opportunities. Darrell Henderson is still seeing a strong workload from a routes (55%) and snaps (60%) perspective over Cam Akers. Henderson is still my preferred start of the two, but putting one in your fantasy lineup hasn’t felt good lately.

Miami Dolphins

The big story leading off Week 4’s action was the second-quarter concussion from Tua Tagovailoa. Teddy Bridgewater came in, did what he could, and will get the start in Week 5 in Tua’s stead.

Tyreek Hill is #good. 10-160 on 14 targets will do that. Week 4 was NOT a Jaylen Waddle week by any stretch (2-39, 85% routes) but Waddle was questionable going into the game anyway with a groin injury so I think we can give him a pass and coupled with Tua going down.

We saw an even further shift to Raheem Mostert this week with Mostert seeing 72% of snaps (compared to Chase Edmonds’ 28% snaps). Mostert racked up 81 total yards and 75% of running back carries, so with familiarity in head coach Mike McDaniel’s system winning out in the interim, Mostert is definitely trending up. Edmonds will have his time but looks to be on the backburner for the time being.

Week 4 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa (when healthy)

Dump ‘Em: Not outright dumping Chase Edmonds after falling in usage the last couple of weeks, but it’s very concerning for somebody we drafted in the single-digit rounds that was paid handsomely in free agency. Keep tabs on this one.

Minnesota Vikings

Another concentrated offense — the Minnesota Vikings — certainly lived up to their billing in London on Sunday morning as Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen combined for 63% of the targets, a nice 69% of the air yards, and virtually all of the passing-game production. Both saw at least 93% of routes and at least 15 fantasy points apiece. 

Besides stud performances from the guys that should be putting up those kinds of performances, K.J. Osborn disappointed a bit considering his awesome Week 3 despite a 93% routes share but his day would have been saved with a touchdown if it not for an offensive pass interference call early on that nullified it. Bad break.

All in all, a typical performance from the Vikings in Week 4.

Week 4 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook

Dump ‘Em: Nobody we’re outright dumping.

New England Patriots

It’s hard to properly judge the Patriots’ offense based on a weird game that saw backup Brian Hoyer (who was already in for Mac Jones) suffer a concussion and lead to third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe. I was convinced this was a made up name but upon further research, it is indeed a real human person.

That human person was responsible for rallying the Patriots and making it more of a game than it had any right to be. You could still see the talent deficiency come out in the second half as some of the balls he was throwing look like they could have had either the hang time clock or be clocked with a sundial. Because of the quarterback issues, they only had 21 pass attempts so it was a patchwork effort and not under normal circumstances.

Nobody really earned target volume to any significant degree. Jakobi Meyers was ruled out on Saturday but it really didn’t matter as DeVante Parker (2-24-1, 100% route participation) caught the lone touchdown while Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in targets for Week 4.

Week 4 New England Patriots Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Jakobi Meyers (when healthy)

Dump ‘Em: Nobody we’re outright dumping.

• With Jonnu Smith week to week with an ankle injury, Hunter Henry gets a new lease on life here, but the leash is very short as Henry just hasn’t been running the routes and isn’t super attractive on a low-volume passing game. The team is however hurting for consistent options after Jakobi Meyers (who has been practicing this week) so Henry could fall into a more advantageous role with Smith possibly out for a week or two.

New Orleans Saints

Even without Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and starting quarterback Jameis Winston, the Saints still somehow made it work across the pond in London; losing by a 61-yard field goal that doinked off the crossbar. That’s football.

Marquez Callaway saw routes on 97% of dropbacks as he got the nod with Thomas out, but his production predictably was so-so (3-53 on six targets). Jarvis Landry couldn’t get things going either as he caught both targets for just seven yards. It was “King of the Air Yards” Chris Olave carrying the torch for the Saints with his first NFL touchdown on 4-67, seven targets, and 80% route participation.

It wasn’t sexy production by any means, but it feels really good to see Olave not take a big dip with so many offensive pieces out for this game. London games throw off the entire schedule and internal clock that NFL players are so used to with game preparation, practice schedules, etc., so to see Olave still thrive under those parameters is incredibly encouraging.

Week 4 New Orleans Saints Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Michael Thomas (when healthy), Alvin Kamara (when healthy), Chris Olave

Dump ‘Em: Jarvis Landry is borderline drop but after a 7-114 performance in Week 1, Landry has a combined 54 receiving yards and four targets per game over the last three weeks. I don’t want to call him “washed”, but Landry is one letter away from spelling “Laundry”. Depending on how deep (or not) your particular league is, make a judgement call based on that whether you can roster Landry. I’m probably cutting bait in shallower formats where there is some relief on waivers.

New York Giants

After adding Sterling Shepard to their M*A*S*H unit that includes Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson, the Giants are running out a bunch of replacement players to run routes, get some cardio, and masquerade as a pro football team’s pass-catching corps.

It hasn’t worked.

No wide receiver ran more than 63% of routes and TE2 Tanner Hudson ran the most routes in Week 4. To make matters worse, the Giants lost Daniel Jones (ankle) AND Tyrod Taylor (concussion) in this one. To salt this game away, the Giants had to run a Wildcat offense with Saquon Barkley and Matt Breida without a quarterback under center.

The hope is that Toney and Robinson can infuse some juice into this offense.

Week 4 New York Giants Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Saquon Barkley… that’s it.

Dump ‘Em: Richie James, David Sills, Kenny Golladay, anybody else in this offense that’s currently playing minus Barkley.

• Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson to a lesser extent need to be held onto on rosters. Both of these players are marked upgrades to anybody currently playing. 
• The current fantasy RB1, Barkley saw a whopping 33 opportunities and ran routes on 73% of dropbacks. For a running back, that’s a monstrous percentage. If the Giants move the ball, it’s on the back and legs of Barkley.

New York Jets

The first game of the 2022 Zach Wilson regime is in the books and it wasn’t THAT scary form a production standpoint, but it was a departure from what we’ve seen with “elite” quarterback Joe Flacco over the past three weeks. We did get something good out of it though: Breece Hall RB1 SZN.

We love to see it. Michael Carter saw nine carries and 44% of the snaps still, but we saw the guard changing slightly in Week 3 and now we’ve got the confirmation as the pendulum swings towards Hall fully. I honestly didn’t think it would be this soon with how much Carter was being talked up in the preseason, but when a good player forces a team’s hand, you need to readjust. That’s what Hall did and here we are in Week 5 in the throes of Breece Hall-mania.

The passing game did take a bit of a hit off of their upside but better days are coming. Garrett Wilson was inefficient (2-41 on six targets, 88% routes) and Elijah Moore (3-53, four targets, 90% routes) didn’t get enough target volume. Corey Davis had the target earning day (compared to the rest of the pass-catchers) with a 5-74 day on 70% of routes with the lone passing touchdown from Wilson. Wilson caught a touchdown himself on a “Philly Special” from Braxton Berrios, so that was a thing that happened.

Week 4 New York Jets Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Breece Hall

Dump ‘Em: Dump Joe Flacco back to waivers with the change to the starter Zach Wilson.

• With the quarterback change back to Wilson, it’s reasonable to assume somebody would be losing out in the target hierarchy with less targets to go around post-Flacco, and Tyler Conklin didn’t QUITE see a precipitous dropoff but it’s enough to where we can’t put him in any “must-start” tight end lists. He still earned five targets and ran routes on 71%, a season-low for him. He might be the odd man out in most weeks, especially if Wilson has an affinity for Corey Davis and the team skews more run-heavy with Breece Hall leading that charge.

Philadelphia Eagles

In one of the bummer scenarios in Week 4 (along with Bills/Ravens), the Eagles and Jaguars had some weather issues pop up with capped the upside of one of the marquee matchups in the early-going of 2022.

The Eagles had 50 (!) rushing attempts to just 25 pass attempts from Jalen Hurts, so the passing game was going to be capped a bit. More often than not, A.J. Brown eats at the table (5-95 on seven targets) even in lesser pass volume weeks, and Dallas Goedert got some run too (5-72, 100% route participation). With a smaller pie to slice up, DeVonta Smith didn’t get much production (3-17 on four targets, 97% routes) but that’s bound to happen at times.

Week 4 Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith

Dump ‘Em: Kenny Gainwell is probably a borderline drop as Miles Sanders (79% of the running back carries, 134 yards, two touchdowns, 67% snaps) has really taken the mantle for the Eagles in the early part of 2022. Even in a game where there wasn’t any Boston Scott due to injury, he could only must five carries and a couple of targets despite a season-high routes share up to 40%.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Is this real life? Or was Kenny Pickett entering the game in the second half of Week 4 a fever dream after asking for it last week in this very column?

Well, we got it folks. The cat is out of the bag now and this looks like Pickett’s team moving forward. He came in and completed all 13 passes he threw. Granted, three of them were to the opposing team but a nice framework is there for fantasy success down the line with the weapons there plus Pickett’s rushing ability was on display as he ran in two touchdowns.

I’m a bit more bullish on what Pickett can do because of how #notgood the Steelers have been running the ball. If Pickett can command this offense, it’s going to be just fine for fantasy and if he keeps up the rushing component, it may not even matter what he does through the air as we’ve seen with the Trey Lances and Jalen Hurts of the world.

Pickens was the first receiver Pickett locked onto and he had a breakout game with a 6-102 line on eight targets (79% routes) with four of those receptions for 71 yards coming after the quarterback switch in the second half.

Not every Pickens game is going to come at the expense of Diontae Johnson, who had a subpar outing (2-11 on four targets). As long as this offense is aggressive and throwing downfield more than the Mitch Trubisky regime was doing, the Pittsburgh offensive ecosystem will be greatly improved. That’s an immediate win for everybody with bigger returns coming down the line.

Week 4 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris

Dump ‘Em: If for some reason you were holding Mitch Trubisky, with the quarterback switch, he’s a safe drop now.

• In a messy tight end wasteland, Pat Freiermuth (7-85 on nine targets, 79% routes) is a must-start option right now. He’s capable of drawing target volume, we’re getting more downfield looks from the offense with Pickett (presumably, 13.2 aDOT in the second half was top-three in Week 4), and so with offensive improvement, the floor comes up and that’s what you’re looking for from the tight end position: a projectable floor that isn’t as low as zero. Not many have that and I don’t think under most circumstances that Freiermuth gets completely shut out of the offense.

San Francisco 49ers

I tried to find some fun way to kick off this blurb, but the only way to do it is with Deebo Samuel’s touchdown.

Just amazing. Whether you want to call Samuel a running back or a wide receiver is inconsequential. He’s a FOOTBALL player. And a damn good one. His 6-115-1 line on seven targets led the 49ers on Monday and besides that, it was just flat target distribution across the board.

We’re waiting for a blow-up George Kittle game but he’s channeling his inner Dallas Goedert currently with left tackle Trent Williams out. 

If Kittle had scored in the back of the end zone, we wouldn’t be talking about his blocking, but here we are. He will have his day.

Week 4 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle

Dump ‘Em: Any backup 49ers running back. They have not been used if at all since Jeff Wilson has been installed as the starter. Kyle Juszczyk has been the defacto backup running back and running routes on almost 50% of dropbacks. I don’t think this changes anytime soon outside of a Wilson injury.

• Brandon Aiyuk is still a steady contributor for this team (4-37, 82% of routes, 92% snaps) but the offense is not condensed enough to get his with the Jauan Jennings, Juszczyk, and backup tight end conglomeration the 49ers use consistently. He’s mainly a flex player right now but one with upside. Not dropping him as of now especially with bye weeks looming.

Seattle Seahawks