2020 NFL Draft Guide: How to Value Rookies

This year has already been one like no other. This fantasy football season will be as well. In dynasty formats, youth is prioritized but in redraft, you’ll see rookies typically slide a bit in terms of their average draft position (ADP). Maybe not with some of the big guys, but the mid-round guys tend to slip a bit. However, amidst a global pandemic, how do we value rookies in fantasy football in 2020? It was an exciting draft for skill players, with a lot of young talent coming off the board in the first handful of rounds. However, with virtual offseasons and the likelihood of zero preseason games, what can we expect from these former college standouts?

I’m treading cautiously optimistic with some rookies, most notably quarterbacks and wide receivers. Some of the running backs should be okay, since they really just have to learn pass protection (if necessary) and adjust to the pace of play in the National Football League. However, quarterbacks are missing valuable time with their receiving corps, while receivers can’t get the reps they need to build synergy with the quarterback. This will be a year like no other, and aside from a few guys, tread carefully with some of the rookies at their current ADP.

Let me throw out the following pieces of information. All of which relate to rookies since the start of 2016 season that appeared in at least 10 games.

Quarterbacks

• No rookie quarterback has thrown for 4,000 yards
• Only two have attempted 500 passes
• Four averaged 17 or more fantasy points per game, but none scored more than 18 fantasy points per game (18 fantasy points per game would have been QB16 last year).
• Dak Prescott is only non-first round quarterback to be a significant fantasy producer in rookie season

Running Backs

• Five running backs recorded 1,000 yards in rookie season, but only one (Kareem Hunt ) was drafted outside of the first round.
• Four players received 300+ touches.
• Seven received 200+ carries.
• Seven recorded 200 or more fantasy points (PPR) in rookie season.

Wide Receivers

• Only one has received more than 70 targets (zero with more than 100).
• Two receivers have recorded 1,000 or more yards in their rookie season, and neither was a first round pick.
• The last first round receiver to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards was Amari Cooper in 2015. In fact, this feat has happened just five times since 2011!
• Only one receiver (since 2016) has scored 10 or more touchdowns.
• Just three have eclipsed 200 fantasy points (PPR) in rookie season

Tight Ends

• Only one player recorded more than 41 targets.
• Only one player recorded more than 565 receiving yards.
• Only one player recorded more than six touchdown receptions

When you break things down by the round they were drafted, there’s some interesting numbers to take away. Yes, some of the numbers are skewed by notable rookie seasons from the likes of Michael Thomas , Saquon Barkley and Kareem Hunt , but they are also impacted by less than stellar seasons, looking at you Laquon Treadwell , Corey Coleman , and other notable first round receivers.

Round 1 quarterbacks that started at least 10 games averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game. DeShone Kizer was our only second round rookie and he stunk, while third round quarterbacks averaged 9.7 fantasy points per game.

Take a look at the following tables for running backs, receivers and tight ends.

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference (Season Finder Tool)

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference (Season Finder Tool)

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference (Season Finder Tool)

In dynasty formats, it’s completely understandable to push up rookies, and honestly, rightfully so, especially if you need some young talent during your team’s rebuild. However, in redraft formats, it is best to temper expectations for the rookies, as top tier producers are few and far between. First round and second running backs haven’t exactly panned out in recent years, whereas second round receivers seem to be better values, based on production from the last four years.

There are rookies that carry nice value in 2020, don’t get me wrong, but be careful of pushing them up too high, ahead of the likes of proven production at the game’s highest level. In a season of incredible uncertainty, why add more uncertainty with a rookie who will likely be underprepared for the season opener with a role that hasn’t been defined, considering we likely won’t see them in preseason action?

Again, I’m not saying to avoid rookies altogether, but there’s a lot of things that a typical rookie class doesn’t have to deal with that will certainly affect the traditional learning curve. Talent will get some players by while they acclimate to the NFL landscape, but many of the rookies that are viewed as “the guy” for the future or perhaps even 2020, likely start off in some sort of timeshare or less than full role.

Statistical Credits:
Rotoviz.com
pro-football-reference.com