2019 NFL Draft Guide: Running Back Depth is Everything
Published: Jul 04, 2019
In today's NFL, running back depth is more important than ever. Injuries, suspensions, and sudden backfield splits have sunk plenty of title contenders in recent years. If you never rest on your laurels you’ll never be surprised by a bump in the fantasy road. A draft is all about layering depth at each position. Well, except at QB in a non-Superflex. Then you always wait on QB. At running back, however, you need to put bullets in every chamber. You’re likely to need them.
Ron Shandler was referring to fantasy baseball when he said it but it applies here: draft skills over roles. A back may not have a sure-fire starting job in July who gets a gust from the fantasy winds of change to become the James Conner or Philip Lindsay of 2019. Once your starting spots are filled it’s worth leaning towards the back who you think has better skills despite their situation. That may even be smart in the early rounds sometimes.
Beyond individual talent, I like a running back to meet three pieces of criteria. They need a competent coach. One who won't continuously call for runs into an eight-man box. The quarterback they play with must be at least average. QB play drives an offense and heavily influences touchdown scoring. The offense line must be serviceable. Great backs can outperform poor blocking but there’s only a few of them.
Here are the RBs outside of the top 24 in NFFC ADP since June 1st that I see providing the best depth along those lines.
#25 James White : With no Gronk and a pile of TE castoffs left to fill his void it’s reasonable to expect a pretty similar role for White in the Patriots 2019 offense. He’s a short route safety blanket and trusted target. He led the team with 123 targets last season. It doesn’t hurt that the RBs around him all have question marks in one area or another.
#26 Kenyan Drake : This one isn’t without risk but Drake is the same back that had people pulling the trigger in the third round last year. He’s overly dependent on chunk runs and hasn’t been handed the reins in full before. That could change with a new coaching staff and a desire to replicate the Patriots success on the ground.
#30 Tevin Coleman : Once upon a time the Kyle Shannahan back was the en vogue replacement to the Andy Reid back (which ironically was re-replaced by the Andy Reid back). Coleman is now reunited with Shanny, the man who hand-picked him in the draft, in San Fran. He has to clear out a crowded backfield but Matt Breida and Jerrick McKinnon aren’t the highest hurdles.
#36 Latavius Murray : What an interesting case Murray has been. He’s gone from SPARQ athlete to up the middle grinder. That seems likely to continue in New Orleans where he’s replacing Mark Ingram as Alvin Kamara ’s compliment. If he avoids Sean Peyton’s mysterious dog house he’s a lock to outperform ADP.
#45 D’Onta Foreman: You have to feel for Foreman. He’s trying to become one of the only backs to ever successfully return from an Achilles tear. Reports from camp suggest he looks much better in his second offseason removed from the injury. The Texans have been searching for someone to take carries from Lamar Miller for quite a while.
#59 Jalen Richard : In a PPR league you’ll be hard pressed to do better than Richard at his price. His role grew once Marshawn Lynch went down last season and resulted in 68 catches on 81 targets. The team drafted Josh Jacobs to be the starter but he has much to prove. Richard should continue getting passing down work as the veteran and Oakland should have plenty of leads to chase with the defense they’re fielding.
#88 Andre Ellington : If your league is deep enough you might get to a place that requires shots in the dark. Enter the 30-year-old Ellington. He spent 2018 out of the league after having zero success in 2016 and 2017. The gamble here is his reuniting with Bruce Arians, who made Ellington a one-time second rounder. None of the backs that were on Tampa’s roster seem to be a great fit for Arians’ scheme. If Ellington was good enough for Arians to sign to a real NFL contract as an insurance policy you should consider it too.
#107 Malcolm Brown : Do you want the free RB that would be a league changer? Brown is your man. The Rams have been stockpiling young RBs, yet chose to outbid the Lions when they signed the RFA to an offer sheet. He knows the offense and the staff is comfortable with him. His season-ending injury in 2018 resulted in C.J. Anderson as a Ram. Should Gurley go down again my belief is that Brown gets the first go as “starter.”
Those are some examples of the narrative you’re looking for outside of your RB1 and RB2. Sprinkle in a variety of risk throughout drafts.
The next topic of RB depth is whether to handcuff your starters. Handcuffing is a controversial subject. There’s a higher reward tied to rostering someone else’s handcuff than your own if they become relevant. If you own a risky back like Todd Gurley or Le’Veon Bell I don’t think it’s a bad idea to take a shot at their cuff late in a draft. The best handcuffs are like Giovani Bernard and can be a bye week option in a pinch. It’s probably unwise to roster multiple handcuffs, however.
At the risk of repeating myself, you can’t have too many options at running back. It’s also the position with the most competition on the waiver wire. Forgo an extra QB or TE when you can in favor of extra RB lottery tickets. Buy players with skill in a good situation and a low carry projection once the starters in a draft are gone. A fantasy season is a marathon, not a sprint.