2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: O.J. Howard

After appearing in 14 games in his rookie season, Tampa Bay tight end O.J. Howard was limited to just 10 games in 2018, but what a 10 games they were! He hurt his foot/ankle in Week 11 last season, and never returned to action. However, in four less games, he increased his reception and yardage totals, nearly replicated his touchdown production, and continued to be one of the more dynamic tight ends in terms of getting down the field. At face value, his overall statistical production may not be overwhelming, compared to the likes of other great tight ends, but on a historical level, Howard has actually been tremendous.

Since the merger, his 11 touchdowns in his first two professional seasons place him in the top 10 of all tight ends. Furthermore, no tight end has more yards per reception AND yards per target than Howard. No tight end. EVER. His 16.6 yards per reception in each of his first two seasons is excellent, and he’s one of the few tight ends in the league with the athleticism to get downfield effectively for his quarterback.

His 2018 season was cut short, but he was among the league’s best through the first 11 weeks of the season. Yes, it’s a testament to Howard in and of itself that he still finished in the top 15 at the position despite missing over one-quarter of the season, but the metrics below are more indicative of not only how good he was last season, but why there is plenty of hype surrounding him as a potential top five player at his position.

Through the first 11 weeks of the season, amongst tight ends that played at least 25 percent of the snaps, here is where Howard ranked in various categories, per Pro Football Focus.

In 2017, Howard wasn’t even the highest scoring tight end on his own team! Cameron Brate was a top-10 tight end in 2017 (PPR), but the writing was on the wall for Brate’s time as the team’s top tight end to fade away into the shadows. In 2017, Howard was a monster in terms of fantasy output when he did in fact receive the football. His 4.05 fantasy points per touch were the highest in the league amongst tight ends with at least 90 fantasy points, per Pro Football Focus. The next closest was Rob Gronkowski at 3.27 fantasy points per touch, per Pro Football Focus.

Last season, Brate was still involved in the offense and finished the TE19 in PPR formats, but Howard was the TE15, and missed over one-quarter of the season! Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Howard was the TE9, and Brate was TE28. Sure, Brate will always reside in the heart of Jameis Winston in the red zone, but there is no doubting that Howard is the clear-cut top option when on the field. He presents a versatility and dynamic asset that few in the league can boast.

Remember earlier in this piece, specifically in regards to Howard being able to get downfield? Well, last season, only George Kittle and Travis Kelce averaged more yards per route run than Howard, per Pro Football Focus. Furthermore, only Rob Gronkowski posted a higher average targeted air yards metric than Howard last season amongst tight ends, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can get downfield as well, and will continue to do so in the new offense, but there’s just something different, and perhaps even more fearsome about a tight end standing 6’6” and weighing over 250 pounds while running a 4.51 40-yard dash. If you ask me, that’s rather intimidating. 

The addition of Bruce Arians to the coaching staff is adding immense fantasy hype to Winston and numerous pass-catchers in Tampa Bay, perhaps the most being Godwin. However, don’t discount Howard in this as well. Sure, Arians’ offenses have typically been incredibly friendly to wide receivers, but not so much the tight end. However, cut the guy some slack, as most recently, his productive tight ends were Jermaine Gresham and John Carlson. Arians has even come out and said that he’s never had a tight end quite like Howard. This doesn’t necessarily mean that he will be used a ton, but I’m confident that Howard will be the most productive tight end in an Arians system. Here’s why:

Jameis Winston , and any QB who plays in Tampa, LOVES to use the tight end. In 2017, the tight end accounted for 19.4 percent of the total targets. In the red zone, the tight end position saw around 28 percent of the target share! Last year, tight ends accounted for 18.7 percent of the total targets, and in the red zone, it was around 22 percent. 

Furthermore, in terms of passer rating, Tampa Bay quarterbacks (Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick ) posted their best mark when throwing the football to his young tight end. See for yourself, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:

Howard is currently the fifth-tight end off the board at pick 68, sandwiched between fellow tight ends Hunter Henry (65.59) and Evan Engram (70.77). One could argue that perhaps the pick of these three tight ends, after the likes of Kelce, Kittle and Zach Ertz , could be a league-winner. Howard certainly has the upside to headline the second tier of tight ends, and the fantasy community is swarming to him in drafts.

Health willing, Howard is line for a solid fantasy season in 2019. Using some of his metrics from last year, factoring in some potential regression in terms of yards per reception for a safer projection, you can cast a pretty solid range for Howard this season. Using Fantasy Alarm’s projections and my chicken scratch on a napkin next to my laptop, we come up with the following:

67-70 receptions on 93-96 targets for 861-943 yards and 5.6-8.0 touchdowns.

The low end of the projections above would have made him the TE6 in PPR formats last season, while the high end of the projections would have made him the TE5. Also, when you consider the fact that Tampa Bay is primed to play in some shootouts this season, thanks to their subpar defense, it’s easy to justify Howard’s upside in 2019. Howard’s combination of reliable floor and immense upside make him an intriguing target at the tight end position on draft day.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
lineups.com/nfl/nfl-targets
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football
fantasyalarm.com/nfl/projections