UPDATE (8/24): Lamar Miller is believed to have torn his left ACL, and potentially PCL, and his 2019 season is likely over. For now, Duke Johnson will head the Houston backfield. This is a tough blow for Miller as he was entering a contract year and had been a stalwart in the Houston offense the past few seasons.
In a half-point per reception format, Houston’s Lamar Miller was RB22 last season, just sneaking in the back-end of the RB2 category. He missed two games due to injury last season, but for the most part, he’s been very durable and a steady piece for fantasy owners. While he can erupt for a big game here and there, he tends to be a high volume guy with a relatively low ceiling in fantasy. We saw him erupt for the 97-yard touchdown run last year against the Titans, and had a stretch where he was one of the better running backs in reality. Even during his best statistical stretch last season, he was only RB18 in a PPR format, RB15 in a half-point per reception format, and RB13 in standard formats. Miller is what he is at this point, and honestly, there isn’t anything wrong with that. He’s a high-volume RB2 that can be drafted as an RB3, it’s as simple as that.
Do you know who ranks fourth in rushing yards since 2015?
Do you know who ranks third in rushing attempts since 2015?
Do you know who ranks seventh amongst running backs in fantasy points (standard scoring) since 2015?
Do you know who ranks eighth amongst running backs in fantasy points (PPR) since 2015?
The answer to all of those questions is Lamar freaking Miller! Sure, volume and durability is a huge part of that, but it’s noteworthy nonetheless.
The Houston offensive line should be better in 2019, and at the very least should be a decent run blocking unit. Between Weeks 7-13 last year, undoubtedly Miller’s best stretch during the year, he led the league with 605 rushing yards and average 5.87 yards per attempt, per Pro Football Focus. Furthermore, he averaged 4.02 yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus. He may not be as shifty as you may think, but he’s slippery and quick enough to make one guy miss and turn the football upfield. The only disappointing metric to note with this, is what I mentioned back in the introductory paragraph. This was Miller’s best statistical season, and he was RB18 in PPR formats during this stretch. His underwhelming role in the passing attack kills his fantasy value in PPR formats, and the acquisition of Johnson definitely hurts him here.
However, Johnson’s acquisition should hamper Miller in the run game. Miller is going to be the primary rusher for this team. Johnson is known for his pass-catching abilities, and the injury to Keke Coutee may actually push Johnson to the slot more frequently early on in the season. Miller likely gets held back to pass block, which is understandable especially if Bill O’Brien starts f*#&%#g Matt Kalil at left tackle. Ask me how I feel about that one. Regardless, O’Brien wants to run the football, and it’s a staple in his offense. Last year, Houston ran the ball on first down 59 percent of the time, per Sharp Football Stats. On second down, Houston was league average, and when they had the lead, they ran the ball at the 11th-highest frequency, per Sharp Football Stats.
In 2018, Miller had at least 15 carries in seven games. He had 15 or more touches in 10 of 14 games. The guy gets plenty of work, and while he isn’t the flashiest option, he should be the lead rusher for a Houston team that potentially has its most dynamic offense ever. The 2019 offensive line, thanks to the additions of rookies Tytus Howard and Max Scharping, should be the best that Miller has run behind during his multi-year tenure in Houston. Still, Miller isn’t a high upside guy at the position, but he offers a reliable floor and is an unsexy selection as a RB2 or RB3.
If you inherit some risk with one of your first two running backs, Miller is the perfect RB3 for your fantasy squad. He’s played in at least 13 games every season as a professional and has averaged at least 16 touches per game every year with the Texans.
Yes, he’s not flashy, and while he’s tagged as a high-floor/low-ceiling guy, there is marginal upside in 2019 with Miller, especially if the offensive line play is in fact improved with the new arrangement.
UPDATE (8/24): Lamar Miller is believed to have torn his left ACL, and potentially PCL, and his 2019 season is likely over. For now, Duke Johnson will head the Houston backfield. This is a tough blow for Miller as he was entering a contract year and had been a stalwart in the Houston offense the past few seasons.
Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
sharp