2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Lamar Jackson

Once Lamar Jackson took the keys to the Baltimore offense in 2018, he instantly enamored the fantasy community. While there were concerns about his ability as a passer, his rushing floor gave way to numerous top 10 finishes at the quarterback position. In the final seven games of the season, he topped 200 passing yards just once. He never completed more than 14 passes in a single game, nor did he attempt more than 25 passes in any regular season contest. In the playoff game against the Chargers, he did attempts 29 passes, but completed just 48.3 percent of his passes and was sacked seven times. Jackson’s rushing upside is what gives him fantasy value, because as a pure passer, he’s well below average.

From the point that Jackson became the full time starter in Week 10 until the end of the regular season, Jackson averaged 20.1 fantasy points, which was 10^th-best during that span. His 0.75 fantasy points per drop back was the best in the league, per Pro Football Focus, but quarterbacks with ample rushing production were routinely at the top of that category. Without the rushing potential, Jackson is an afterthought in fantasy circles. He scored 141 total fantasy points over his last seven games, 79.4 of which were from his rushing production. Fifty-six percent of his fantasy output down the stretch was from his legs! As a frame of reference, his 61.6 fantasy points from his passing production would have been more than only Nick Foles (3 games), Josh Johnson , Blake Bortles , Cody Kessler and Josh McCown . Yikes.

Pro Football Focus uses adjusted completion percentage to “account for factors that hurt the passer’s completion percentage but don’t help show how accurate they are.” By their metric, Josh Allen (64.7%) was the only quarterback who played in at least 12 games in 2018 to have a lower adjusted completion percentage than Jackson (66.7%). As mentioned by numerous pundits, Jackson’s accuracy will need improvement, and last year’s completion percentage of 58.2 percent was the fourth-worst in football. If there is any upside to this, NFL Next Gen Stats has his xCOMP% (expected completion percentage) up at 62.7 percent. Hey, silver linings, right?

Because of his ability to rush the football, he has a role in most fantasy formats. The rookie quarterback averaged 17 carries per game last season, as a QUARTERBACK! A few months back, the Ravens owner came out and said Lamar Jackson will not be running 20 times a game, and “that is not what this offense is about.” Uh oh. Not only does this hurt his rushing potential to an extent, particularly in the number of designed runs, but if Baltimore forces Jackson to become a quarterback that will beat you through the air, this is not going to work. Take a look at his passer grid from last season, per Next Gen Stats.

There is a lot of red on there, and the majority is yellow, stating that he’s “within average.” One could argue that the Baltimore receiving core isn’t tailored to Jackson’s strength. Marquise Brown is a burner who can stretch the defense, while fellow rookie Miles Boykin being an intermediate-to-deep threat. However, looking at Jackson’s passing chart above, that’s not exactly where he thrives. Not only is he not exceptional on these passes, but he hardly throws it downfield. Per Pro Football Focus, his 7.6 percent deep passing rate (20+yards) was the lowest among any quarterback who appeared in at least 12 games last season. When he did throw it deep, only a handful of starters had a worse accuracy rating than Jackson (38.5%). Willie Snead and the tight ends can work the short to intermediate routes, but there are legitimate concerns about his receivers creating large enough windows to mitigate Jackson’s accuracy woes.

Baltimore will take their chances downfield, sure, especially with the speedy rookies they drafted this season, but to help with Jackson in the passing game, expect a systematic rhythm approach to the passing game. Take a look at Jackson’s stats last year when he was in the pocket for under 2.5 seconds, as well as over 2.5 seconds, per Pro Football Focus.

Defenses will often employ a spy against Jackson, and every defense will operate under the thought of forcing Jackson to beat them with his arm, not his legs. However, Jackson needs his legs for his arm to be successful.

If it weren’t for Jackson’s rushing ability and upside, he would be nowhere near a top-12 quarterback for fantasy owners in 2019. While Baltimore may limit his designed rushing attempts, they cannot limit when Jackson’s first, or second, read isn’t open and he just tucks and runs. If the reads aren’t there, Jackson will resort to what he did at Louisville, which was tuck the ball away and use his athleticism to wow the audience. Despite the landscape of the National Football League trying to find a way to slow him down, he’s simply too athletic for any defense to completely squash his rushing numbers. Any positive developments as a passer will solidify his top-10 QB status, and give him a chance to become just the sixth quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 2,500 passing yards and rush for over 750 yards.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com