2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Jordan Reed

Jordan Reed is a very talented tight end that continues to tease fantasy owners with his potential. In 2015, Reed caught 87 passes on 114 targets for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns. It was a monster fantasy campaign for Reed, as he appeared in a career-high 14 games and quickly entrenched himself as the top dog in the Washington passing attack. However, since that magical year, fantasy owners have been, more or less, screwed by Reed, as he continues to battle injuries and even when he does play, fantasy owners are collectively holding their breath as every tackle, or every play is a chance for Reed to get nicked up and come out of action. Since scoring 11 touchdowns in 2015, Reed has found paydirt just 10 times over the last three seasons (31 games). 

Reed has never played 16 games in his career.

Reed has never 15 games in his career.

He’s played in 12 or more games just three times in his career, but those three times have come in the last four seasons.

Per Sports Injury Predictor, Reed has a 67.5 percent chance of injury in 2019, and is projected to miss six games. Additionally, take a look at the image below, which can be found here at sportsinjurypredictor.com, visually representing Reed’s injury history dating back to his days at the University of Florida.

Courtesy of sportsinjurypredictor.com

When it comes time to drafting Reed, you need to understand that you aren’t getting an every week guy. He’s entering his 29-year-old season, and another year of wear and tear on that body is noteworthy. There is an opportunity that he garners a sizable target share in the passing attack, because Washington currently has more quantity than quality at the wide receiver position. Other than fellow tight end Vernon Davis , Reed is the most established pass catcher on this team. Take a look at the career numbers for Washington’s wideouts, as well as Reed and Davis.

Despite playing in 13 games last season, his highest since 2015, his reception percentage was a career-low 64.3-percent and his 6.6 yards per target, per Pro Football Reference, was the second-worst of his career. However, his yards per reception rebounded last season, when he did play, and his yards per route run was better last year compared to 2017. However, it was still a distant memory compared to his 2015 season.

Aside from the health concerns with Reed, we are unsure of whom will be throwing him the football. Is it rookie Dwayne Haskins? Is it the recently acquired Case Keenum ? Does Colt McCoy come back from his season-ending injury in 2018? Each of the three players above have their faults, but each offers some intriguing upside for Reed’s total stat line if he is able to be on the field more often than not.

Let’s take a look at the tight end position for each of Washington’s potential quarterbacks last year.

• At Ohio State, the top receiving tight end for Haskins was Luke Farrell, whom caught just 20 passes for 205 yards and one touchdown in 13 games in 2018.

• In Denver under Keenum’s command, Jeff Heuerman , Matt LaCosse and Jake Butt combined for 63 receptions on 98 targets for 616 yards and 3 TDs. The entire Denver tight end group accrued 150.9 fantasy points in 2018, which would have ranked eighth in the league last season (per Pro Football Focus in a PPR format), assuming they all morphed into one person.

• In one full game with McCoy in 2018, Reed and Davis combined for eight receptions on 12 targets for 148 yards and one touchdown.

Per NFFC ADP data, Reed is currently the 19th tight end off the board, and at pick 162 at time of writing, he’s a 14th round pick. Despite the vast injury concerns and likely fluid quarterback situation in Washington, it’s a unique buying opportunity on a talented tight end. Other tight ends going around him have sizable flaws as well, indicated below:

While Reed cannot be your primary tight end, he’s an upside play as your TE2, and an attractive best ball target.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
sportsinjurypredictor.com