2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: James Conner

Le’Veon Who? In a full season without Le’Veon Bell heading the Pittsburgh backfield, James Conner did an excellent job in being a dual-threat option out of the backfield, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to continue without a hitch. The Pittsburgh offense threw the football more than they ever have, 675 times to be exact, but Conner was still able to carve out a nice role by averaging 16.5 carries per game. Last season, Conner rushed for 973 yards and 12 touchdowns, and also added 55 receptions for 497 yards and one touchdown in the passing attack. When you add in his average of 4.2 receptions per game, Conner averaged over 20 touches per game last season, re-emphasizing his “workhorse” label. Will that continue in 2019, however, is the real question here, considering the Steelers have come out and said they envision second-year back Jaylen Samuels being involved as well. Unfortunately, the term “tandem backfield” has been tossed around, but I strongly believe that this will not be a 50/50 timeshare.

Let’s dive into the numbers between these two.

While Samuels was able to produce quite consistently in the passing attack, his rushing numbers were really boosted by one big performance, which came against New England where he rushed for 142 yards on 19 carries. If we remove that game, for the 2018 season, Samuels rushes for 114 yards on 37 carries, which comes out to 3.08 yards per carry. In terms of fantasy production, thanks to his work in the receiving game, and catching nearly 90 percent of his targets, Samuels was a useful fantasy asset. However, in terms of talent, he’s well behind Conner, and that is why even if the two share the field at times, Conner is the more tantalizing fantasy option.

Conner proved to be incredibly elusive last season, and that is obviously critical for a running back. Otherwise, they will need more volume to rack up the yards and fantasy numbers. Of running backs with at least 200 carries last season, only Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and New York’s Saquon Barkley posted a higher elusive rating than Conner in 2018, per Pro Football Focus. For what it’s worth, Conner was right behind Barkley, too, coming in at a 63.8, whereas Barkley sat at 67.4.

Mentioning Conner’s elusiveness was two-fold, in that it’s important for a second reason. Did Pittsburgh throw the ball more often because they were facing stacked boxes more frequently? Take a look at the frequency with which a Pittsburgh running back faced a loaded box, per Next Gen Stats.

That number is up immensely! Only 10 running backs saw a loaded box more frequently than Conner in 2018. Conversely, only six running backs saw a loaded box less frequently than Bell in 2017. Were defenses daring Roethlisberger to throw the football because they didn’t believe Conner would be as effective in this offense as Bell was? If that was the case, that didn’t quite pan out, as Conner was very effective. That number could certainly drop again, as JuJu Smith-Schuster has established himself as a top receiver, Roethlisberger was effective last season as he threw for a league-leading 5,129 yards and Conner was versatile out of the backfield. However, with a lack of quality receiving options behind Smith-Schuster – Yes, looking at you Donte Moncrief and James Washington – could defenses dare Roethlisberger to sling the rock and hope for an interception per game? Potentially.

Despite Roethlisberger throwing it over 100 times more in 2018 compared to 2017, the target share for the Pittsburgh running backs declined for the second straight season. See below, courtesy of Sharp Football Stats.

A lack of quality wide receivers behind JuJu opens the door for the RB target share to creep back closer to 20% in 2019. Conner won’t be the same receiver that Bell was for this offense, but Conner proved to be an adequate option in the passing attack, and is capable of making chunk plays through the air. Furthermore, if he replicated his 4.2 receptions per game last season over the course of a full year, we find Conner ending the year with a reception total in the high-60s. Hey, we’ll take that!

Conner rushed for 12 touchdowns last season, with nine of them coming within five yards, and all but two coming in the red zone. The Steelers had the second-highest pass percentage in the league last season, but the highest in the red zone, per Sharp Football Stats. In the week’s Conner played, here is where Pittsburgh ranked in terms of pass percentage.

Per Sharp Football Stats

Inside the 10-yard line last season, Conner scored nine touchdowns on 22 carries. From the table above, you can see that the Steelers were pass-heavy, for the most part, inside the red zone, so Conner will need to be effective yet again in 2019 with the touches he is given in the most important part of the field for fantasy purposes. Under Roethlisberger’s command, luckily for Conner, the Steelers should get to the red zone often enough that even though they will pass it more than they run, Conner should get plenty of opportunities to deliver for his fantasy owners.

Conner is currently being drafted as the RB8, but here’s one last takeaway from his 2018 season, in which he made just 12 starts due to injury: There were only four other running backs to tally at least 973 rushing yards and 497 receiving yards last season like Conner did. They were Christian McCaffery, Todd Gurley , Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley .

Yes, Jaylen Samuels is in the mix for 2019, and he was solid during Conner’s absence. However, Conner is the lead back, and even if the Steelers employ a multi-back attack, there’s enough fantasy goodness to be had in the Steel City with Conner leading the way. While he’s currently being drafted as the eight running back, you could make a case for him as the fifth or sixth running back, and most wouldn’t even bat an eye.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com
sharpfootballstats.com