Coming off a rookie campaign with 27 receptions on 45 targets for 467 yards and five touchdowns, there is a lot of hype surrounding San Francisco’s sophomore wide receiver Dante Pettis . An accomplished receiver out of the University of Washington, Pettis should have a dynamite second season with the team, especially with a full season of Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. It was a slow start for Pettis in 2018, but when he was healthier near the end of the season and starting to showcase his skills in this offense, he took flight over the final five weeks of the season in particular. Those numbers played into the fact that Pettis had the third-most fantasy points per touch (3.70), per Pro Football Focus, amongst receivers who played at least one-quarter of the snaps in 2018.
He scored four touchdowns between Weeks 11-13, and topped 70 receiving yards three times in the final five games. He averaged 6.2 targets per game over the last six weeks of the 2018 season, and the targets were father downfield. Prior to Week 10, Pettis averaged 1.26 yards per route run (per Pro Football Focus), which was the fifth-highest on the team. However, from Week 10 until the end of the season, Pettis’ 2.01 yards per route run was substantially better than the prior mark, and was even the highest on the team.
From Weeks 10-15, here are Pettis’ ranks across the National Football League among wide receivers, per Pro Football Focus:
- Tied for 19th-most fantasy points
- 6th-most fantasy points per touch
- Tied for 2nd with 4 receiving TDs
Pettis was productive with destined career backs ups last season (Nick Mullens & C.J. Beathard ), but now that Jimmy Grapes is ready to blossom in Shanahan’s offense, Pettis has every opportunity to be a reliable WR2 in fantasy this season. George Kittle will get plenty of love in this offense, but in terms of the team’s wide receivers, very few will argue that Pettis is the top dog. In the first two games of 2018 with Garoppolo at the helm, Pettis had three receptions on seven targets for 96 yards and one touchdown.
It would be foolish of me not to mention that Shanahan is a fantasy gold mine and can provide fantasy owners with valuable production, regardless of the quarterback. In 15-team formats, a Shanahan-commanded offense has produced a WR1 or WR2 (top 30) in four of the past six seasons. The two seasons that it didn’t happen were 2018 (Beathard, Mullens) and 2014 (Hoyer, Manziel).
YEAR | TEAM | WR1 (Rank) | WR2 (Rank) |
2018 | SF | Kendrick Bourne (64) | Dante Pettis (71) |
2017 | SF | Marquise Goodwin (29) | Trent Taylor (68) |
2016 | ATL | Julio Jones (6) | Mohamed Sanu (51) |
2015 | ATL | Julio Jones (2) | Roddy White (73) |
2014 | CLE | Andrew Hawkins (48) | Miles Austin (64) |
2013 | WAS | Pierre Garcon (11) | Santana Moss (71) |
Also, because of the complexity of the Shanahan offense, you can never get an idea of what Pettis is going to do. He can juke the corner out of his jock strap in short to intermediate routes, but he has enough speed to get behind them as well. Pettis is in some really good company from last season, as he was one of just 14 receivers to play in at least eight games last season, and average at least 1.79 yards per route run and 2.25 yards per route run specifically out of the slot, per Pro Football Focus.
Player | Games Played | Yards per Route Run | Yards per Route Run (Slot) |
9 | 2.39 | 4.30 | |
16 | 2.66 | 3.63 | |
15 | 2.33 | 3.30 | |
16 | 2.54 | 3.28 | |
16 | 2.51 | 3.11 | |
8 | 1.97 | 3.00 | |
10 | 2.54 | 2.97 | |
9 | 2.16 | 2.77 | |
14 | 2.54 | 2.64 | |
15 | 2.12 | 2.42 | |
8 | 2.26 | 2.41 | |
13 | 1.87 | 2.40 | |
15 | 1.94 | 2.27 | |
11 | 1.79 | 2.25 |
With Garoppolo, Pettis should easily be within the top 30 receivers this season, regardless of format. Pettis does a great job of creating separation (10th-best in 2018), which will give Garoppolo plenty of space to deliver the football to his No. 1 wide receiver.
Pettis scored five touchdowns last season, but with Kittle commanding plenty of attention in the red zone, Pettis should be Garoppolo’s secondary option in the red zone, because he will be able to get open more frequently than Jordan Matthews and rookies Jalen Hurd and Deebo Samuel. Pettis will score at least seven touchdowns this season, health willing.
Taking the average from the last two seasons, the 49ers could throw the ball 570 times in 2019. Pettis saw at least 13 percent of the targets in each of his final six games, per Lineups.com. He routinely was right around 15 to 17 percent, even topping out in the low 20s once or twice. Assuming he gets a 16 percent target share in 2019, that comes out to 91.2 targets, and his reception percentage should increase from last year with a more talented quarterback under center. If he catches 65 percent of his targets, that comes out to 59.3 receptions for the season. He averaged 15.4 yards per reception over the last six weeks of the season, so if we use that number, we get 913 yards to go along with the seven touchdowns.
Our projection for Pettis in the NFL tools section (47 grabs on 81 targets for 796 yards and 3.8 touchdowns) is a safe floor for Pettis, and we can use my rough projections above as his ceiling for the season. His floor would have placed him at WR44 in a PPR format last season, while his ceiling would have shot him up to WR24.
Pettis has immense upside in this offense in 2019, but he will need to stay healthy and build upon the success he enjoyed during the last few weeks of the 2018 season.
Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
lineups.com