2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Antonio Brown

One of the game’s most talented receivers has left a fantasy friendly offense to head out west to get away from his former quarterback and start fresh. After six straight 1,000+ yard seasons in Pittsburgh, Antonio Brown will head to Oakland to immediately bolster the receiving crew and give the offense a lethal playmaker it’s been missing. Yes, they’ve had Amari Cooper , but he wasn’t used right in Oakland and he needed to get out of here. Will it be much of the same for Brown in Oakland? With Derek Carr , Cooper was never the highest scoring receiver in fantasy football on his own team, being outscored by the likes of James Jones and Michael Crabtree (multiple times). There’s no denying Brown’s talent or skillset on the field, but the track record of receivers in Oakland under Carr hasn’t necessarily been great, and we need to come to the realization that while Brown has every chance to be a WR1 this season, the path is far tougher than it ever was in Pittsburgh. Also, no pun intended, but from head to toe, Brown has been a huge problem for the Raiders and fantasy owners. More on this coming later.

Ben Roethlisberger might be declining, which could explain why Brown’s reception percentage has fallen each of the past two seasons, but massive, massive volume made up for it. That’s something that could elude Brown in Oakland. Not only did the Raiders acquire Brown, but they got Tyrell Williams to give the receiving room a facelift, and add another weapon to Carr’s arsenal. Rookie running back Josh Jacobs will look to boost the ground game in what likely becomes a balanced offense under Jon Gruden, and one thing is for sure… The Raiders will not throw the ball 700+ times like the Steelers did last year. In fact, the Raiders may throw it 575 times if Carr is lucky. That volume would be a downgrade in and of itself for Brown.

Additionally, wide receivers haven’t fared too well in fantasy football under Carr, except for 2015 and 2016. Take a look below at the overall finishes in a 0.5PPR format under Carr since he entered the league.

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

For what it’s worth, Amari Cooper was WR21 in 2015, WR13 in 2016, and WR33 in 2017. Interesting. Essentially, in five professional seasons, Carr has produced just one WR1 (top 12), and it was Michael freaking Crabtree back in 2016. Cooper posted two WR2 campaigns under Carr, and Crabtree added one as well in 2015, but that is it. With Carr at the helm of the Raider offense since 2014, there have been just four instances of a WR1 or WR2 finish. Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, there have multiple seasons, really per year, and Brown was regularly competing for the wide receiver scoring title.

The days of Brown in a pass-happy offense are over. With Gruden in town, and the Raiders extending a first round pick on RB Josh Jacobs , they will look to significantly decrease the 61/39 pass-run split they employed last year. Pittsburgh threw the ball 67 percent of the time last season, and it’s a very real possibility that Oakland throws it in in the 55-58 percent range, which would be a massive drop off for Brown.

So, what’s the passing outlook like for Oakland then in terms of total attempts? Well, the league average number of plays run per game over the last four seasons is 63.5, with Oakland coming in below average more often than not, per Team Rankings. Well, over a 16 game season, that comes out to 1,016 plays. The 55 to 58 percent pass rate gives us a range of 558.8 to 589.3 attempts for the entire season. Now, that doesn’t mean it’s how many actual pass attempts Carr will take, as he’ll likely scramble about twice a game, and if the offensive line doesn’t improve, he could be sacked a ton again. I mean, the guy was sacked 51 times last season, but the Raiders did make some improvements up front, notably signing Trent Brown and Richie Incognito . Carr’s projected pass total of 576 attempts falls right within our range.

In Pittsburgh, Brown hogged the targets, but with Pittsburgh throwing the ball nearly 70 percent of the time, there was enough to go around for JuJu Smith-Schuster and the running back position. However, Carr spreads the ball around a ton, and in the Oakland offense, there might not be enough to go around on a weekly basis. We saw it with Cooper over the years, and last year after seeing 11 targets against the Browns in Week 4, he saw just one target each of the next two weeks, before ultimately being traded to Dallas. The last time Brown saw less than three targets in a game was against the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2011. EIGHT YEARS AGO! Brown threw what could only be described as a “hissy-fit” in Pittsburgh, imagine what could happen in Oakland if Carr doesn’t target him consistently.

Under Carr’s leadership, the average target total for his No. 1 receiver that year is 118.4 targets, per Pro Football Reference. Brown hasn’t seen less than 150 targets in a season since 2012. Additionally, only two receivers have posted a 1,000 yard receiving season under Carr, and they are Cooper (2015, 2016) and Crabtree (2016). Lastly, Carr hasn’t had a receiver with over 740 yards since Cooper and Crabtree went for 1,000+ in 2016. Yikes.

Lastly, let me take an excerpt from my “Stats You Need to Know” piece from this Draft Guide regarding Brown.

Since Derek Carr entered the league, he’s only had one wide receiver (James Jones) who received at least 100 targets and caught 65 percent of his targets in a season. Conversely, Antonio Brown did it four times in the past six seasons in Pittsburgh. If you look back at recent seasons, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper caught less than 58 percent of their targets in 2015. In 2017, Cooper only caught 50 percent of his targets.

Effectiveness and efficiency have sometimes eluded each other for receivers in Oakland, and while I do believe Carr improves statistically this season, we are by no means looking at a high-flying offense with an absurd pass rate that Brown had grown accustomed to in Pittsburgh.

If I wasn't low on Brown enough to begin with, the happenings of the past seven-ish days have sent Brown's fantasy outlook in a spiral. Not only is Brown dealing with extreme frostbite on his feet from his cryotherapy machine, but he's threatening not to play again due to his helmet being unapproved by the league's safety protocol. Brown is the definition of a diva wide receiver, and who knows when he will return to the field. The frostbite on his feet is a real thing, but many believe the whole helmet issue to be a product of HBO's Hard Knocks, but I'm not entirely sure. This seems to be something entirely in the realm of possibility for Brown to lose his mind over.

Brown is currently the seventh receiver off the board, coming in closer to the backend of the second round in 12-team formats and with all the uncertainty surrounding Brown heading into 2019, it's completely up to you whether or not you want to bite the bullet. Personally, I'm out on Brown, considering he would be the first or second receiver I'd have to draft, and that's a lot of risk to inherit in the early rounds. Additionally, is the risk even worth it? I mean, you read everything I mentioned above about how Brown is certainly going to regress, and now he may not even play a full 16 games, let alone more than a handful of practices to develop the rapport and strengthen the connection with his new quarterback. I'm officially worried about Brown, and he needs to be out there all 16 games to even have a chance to end the eyar as a top 12 wide receiver, and at this point in time, it doesn't seem likely.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football