2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Aaron Rodgers

Last year wasn’t quite the year fantasy owners were expecting when using a rather pricy selection on Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers . He still ended the year as QB7, but they didn’t expect his fantasy points per drop back metric to rank outside the top-20 at his position, per Pro Football Focus. For what it’s worth, in this particular department, Rodgers’ 0.46 fantasy points per drop back was closer to Kirk Cousins (0.45) and Marcus Mariota (0.45), rather than amongst the players he was drafted around, notably Deshaun Watson (0.55) and Russell Wilson (0.61), per Pro Football Focus. The interesting thing is that the 2018 version of Rodgers we saw was statistically similar to prior seasons, it was just the touchdown rate that did him in. In fact, he averaged more yards per game last season than he did averaging in the three seasons prior (2015-2017). However, the significant reduction in passing touchdowns pushed him down to just 25 touchdown passes. That mark was the lowest mark he’s ever posted in his entire NFL career when he’s played at least 15 games in a season.

I said it once and I’ll say it again, Rodgers was Rodgers last year, sans touchdown rate. See for yourself here:

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

Yes, for fantasy owners, it doesn’t matter that he was statistically similar, considering when you paid near top dollar for a guy who ended up throwing under 26 touchdown passes, but last year is over with, and there is a clear path back to a top three or four finish at the position for Rodgers. Blindly, if that touchdown rate column wasn’t there, perhaps the 2018 version of Rodgers is more enticing. Perhaps.

When looking at his average intended air yards (table below), per Next Gen Stats, Rodgers was back to form in that department as well. After flopping in 2017, albeit an injury shortened campaign, Rodgers’ 2018 mark rivaled that big mark he posted in 2016, which is encouraging. Rodgers doesn’t need the deep ball to be successful, but he is aggressive, likes to make the chunk plays, and when you have receivers who are capable of making it happen, why the hell not!?

Courtesy of Next Gen Stats

If you remove the seasons in which he threw 25 or less touchdown passes, we come to an average of 34.25 touchdown passes per year for Rodgers. So, if we add nine passing touchdowns to the ledger last year, that’s an extra 36 fantasy points, which pushes him up to QB4, just ahead of Houston’s Deshaun Watson . There’s a clear path back to fantasy stardom for Rodgers in 2019, especially if you believe in the advanced statistical production of a few of his weapons.

There is plenty of hype regarding Aaron Jones production in the passing attack, along with Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling . Davante Adams should push DeAndre Hopkins for top dog at wide receiver and some believe in a Jimmy Graham bounce back campaign in Year 2 with Rodgers. If you believe a few of these guys are going to hit, you simply have to be in on Rodgers, because they can’t get the production otherwise. It’s a simple equation. A+B=C

A = Aaron Jones ’ increased involvement in passing attack
B = Effectiveness with the increased volume
C = More receiving yards, and touchdowns, for Aaron Jones , and in turn, boosts Rodgers’ numbers

Volume + Effectiveness = Enhanced fantasy output

Jones simply cannot produce better stats without it benefitting Rodgers, considering Rodgers is the guy delivering him the football. If you believe that Adams ends the year as the top scoring receiver, Jones pushes into the top 12 at his position, and Graham bounces back from a down year last year, you have to believe that Rodgers is, at least, a top four quarterback this season. Well, what do you know, he’s currently QB4 off the board, behind only Patrick Mahomes , Andrew Luck , and Deshaun Watson .

He was pristine with the ball last year, throwing just two interceptions in 16 games for a miniscule 0.3 percent interception rate. That mark might rise a bit, but taking some extra chances will reward fantasy owners with an increased touchdown total, and that’s what matters.

Rodgers is an elite arm talent with a rare blend of strength and accuracy. His arsenal of weapons is solid as well, headlined by Adams, Jones and Graham. At this point in draft season, Rodgers is going at value essentially, and one could argue that he’s the safest of the other guys (Luck, Watson) in his range. The touchdown rate should bounce back this year, and a new offense could lead to enhanced fantasy output from Rodgers this season. He’s a top five option this year at the position, no doubt, but that’s not telling you anything you didn’t know already.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com