You know that person in your fantasy football league who always drafts a bunch of rookies every year? It seems like every league has (at least) one. How often does that person win? Not very often, right? That’s not to say that strategy never works; if you drafted Christian McCaffrey , Alvin Kamara , Kareem Hunt , JuJu Smith-Schuster and Evan Engram in 2017, that obviously worked out pretty well. If you drafted Royce Freeman , Rashaad Penny , Ronald Jones , Michael Gallup , James Washington , D.J. Moore or Mike Gesicki last season, you probably had a hard time making the playoffs. There is a time and a place for drafting most rookies, but as we mentioned above, there is usually at least one person in every league who does not want to wait for the appropriate time. More often than not, that is a mistake.
For both fantasy and NFL teams, rookies offer endless possibilities. When you have never seen a player fail, you can talk yourself into all kinds of potential, even if that potential is theoretical. That is why you get fan bases every year who talk themselves into some unproven backup quarterback. We may not know for sure that the backup isn’t good, but we know the starter isn’t great. It’s easy to imagine the backup can be even better if he just got a chance.
I completely understand why you would talk yourself into Andy Isabella ’s upside, especially if you believe in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. I’m not here to tell you he doesn’t have upside. I will say I’m not convinced he plays in three-receiver sets. And even if he does, we have no particular reason to believe this offense is capable of supporting three fantasy-relevant receivers. And I am extremely skeptical Isabella can produce more than Christian Kirk or Larry Fitzgerald .
In general, I feel like fantasy players have short memories. That can be good, especially if it means you can bounce back from a disappointing season. It can be a problem when it comes to evaluating talent, especially rookies. Remember all the way back in January, when everyone who knew anything about the NFL draft said this was a weak class for quarterbacks? Granted, we all thought Kyler Murray was a baseball player back then, but even so, no one was excited about the incoming rookie quarterbacks.
What happened next was we got four months of teams convincing themselves they needed to reach for a young quarterback, followed by three months of quarterbacks throwing against air and reporters with nothing to do but repeat what they hear from coaches. The coaches, of course, are disincentivized to say anything negative about anyone. So it is that by the time fantasy drafts have begun, we completely forget that the last time we saw these guys play, we didn’t think they were very good.
Last season, 24 rookies topped 100 fantasy points in PPR scoring, but only five topped 200 fantasy points. I’m not arguing you should ignore rookies altogether, but at a time of year when it seems like most rookies are met with unbridled optimism by the fantasy community, a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted. Even the rookies who turn out to be useful for fantasy probably won’t come anywhere close to matching what you think their ceilings are.
This is especially true when it comes to tight ends. Since 2000, no rookie tight end has scored more than 175.4 fantasy points, and that was Jeremy Shockey in 2002. Over that span, just 21 tight ends have topped 100 fantasy points in PPR. That means you basically get one fantasy-relevant rookie per year. Go ahead and draft T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant if you want, just know that they both are likely to top out as top-10 fantasy tight ends. Also keep in mind that over that same time frame, 41 sophomore tight ends topped 100 fantasy points, with nine of them going over Shockey’s 175.4 fantasy points. If you liked Chris Herndon or Mark Andrews or even Mike Gesicki or Hayden Hurst last season, maybe you should target them ahead of this current crop of rookie tight ends.
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As for evaluating rookie wide receivers, I think 2014 has left us with unreasonably high expectations. Five wide receivers were taken in the first round of that draft, and all of them topped 138 fantasy points. In total, 13 rookies topped 100 fantasy points, including Brandin Cooks , Martavis Bryant and Allen Robinson , who each played exactly 10 games. Odell Beckham had an insane 295.0 PPR points despite only playing 12 games. Mike Evans , Kelvin Benjamin and Sammy Watkins each had big seasons as well. In the three seasons that have followed, only four rookies have topped 200 PPR fantasy points. For every Amari Cooper or Michael Thomas , there is a Breshad Perriman or Corey Davis .
The consensus on this current crop of rookie receivers was that there were a lot of potential contributors but no complete receivers and few (if any) potential stars. I don’t think that has changed, no matter what you think of New England’s depth chart or how D.K. Metcalf fits Pete Carroll’s offense.
The one position I am willing to be a bit more optimistic at is running back, where I think Josh Jacobs , David Montgomery and Alexander Mattison have a fair chance to meet or exceed their draft day price. That being said, we shouldn’t assume they will see heavy usage, especially right away. We don’t know for sure that they are significantly better than Doug Martin and Mike Davis . Those two could certainly be involved enough to aggravate fantasy owners, but I’m not sure many fantasy players are thinking that way heading into drafts.
I am more likely to have someone like Alexander Mattison on my fantasy teams than Jacobs or Montgomery. He appears to be largely overlooked in drafts despite his rookie status, and I can get him late enough that I should have no problem dropping him if it turns out two games into the season, he isn’t involved in the offense at all. We know all of these rookies carry some degree of risk, which is why I usually stay away in the earlier rounds. After all, the article is titled Never Reach On a Rookie, not Never Draft a Rookie.
Player News
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports there are “multiple people in the league who believe the new regime is not so high on Travis Etienne.”
Fowler also noted Tank Bigsby’s fumbling issue but didn’t directly relate that to the feelings of the new brain trust in Jacksonville. The Jags clearly felt they were lacking at running back this offseason and addressed that opening via the draft with Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round and LeQuint Allen in the seventh. The pair of additions complicate an already-messy backfield by committee. Etienne is entering the final year of his rookie deal and is a long-shot to be brought back in 2026. The Jags could opt to move on early by trading him, clearing $6.1 million in cap space in the process. If the team does trade Etienne, Tuten would likely be the team’s top back in the long run, making him a high-upside bet in early fantasy drafts.
Broncos signed third-round pick WR Pat Bryant to a four-year contract.
The deal includes $1.4 million guaranteed and is worth $6.6 million in total. Sean Payton compared aspects of Bryant’s game to those of Michael Thomas in his post-draft press conference and there are at least a few similarities in their profiles. Bryant stands at 6'2/204 and ran a 4.61-second Forty at the combine. Thomas measured in at 6'3/212 and clocked a 4.57-second Forty. Though the two have similar physical characteristics, Thomas was known for his proficiency from the slot while Bryant primarily played on the outside as a field-stretcher at Illinois. Bryant’s transition to slot duties may take some time, but third-round draft capital makes him worth a shot in dynasty leagues.