This year, a big part of the offseason coverage leading up to the draft will be my positional previews. Starting with this year’s crop of quarterbacks, I will be breaking down tape and giving you a full evaluation of each prospect, including measurements, school, year, games I’ve watched (with links), draft range, strengths, weaknesses, summary, and a pro comparison…

As you all likely know by now, scouting is a never-ending process. While I am still combing through the seemingly bottomless pit of prospects for this year, below are my top-seven quarterbacks. Keep in mind that I plan on updating each position with more prospects as I continue to break down the tape.

 

1. | Sam Darnold | USC | rSO | 6-foot-3 | 220 lbs. |

Games Watched: Penn State (2016), Cal (2016), Utah (2016), Stanford (2017), Colorado (2017), Ohio State (2017)

Projected Draft Range: Top-five

Pro Comparison: Jameis Winston

 

– Pros –

  • Well built and solid; more than enough athlete for the position with noticeable grit and toughness.
  • Good sense for the pocket and knows when to step up; looks every bit like a pro in that sense.
  • Calculates offense at an NFL speed; great internal clock with instincts on when to get the ball out of his hands.
  • Goes through progressions at a professional level.
  • Only deviates from play design when necessary.
  • Incredible arm; can make any and every NFL throw with a surprisingly quick release with awkward mechanics being considered.
  • Uses elite anticipation to throw receivers open; one of his many translatable NFL traits.
  • Throws a good and catchable ball; where it needs to be and he spins it well; improved upon this from freshman to sophomore year.
  • Elite escapability; the play is never dead; reminds of Romo/Rodgers/Roethlisberger in that regard.

– Cons –

  • Depression era pitcher’s windup for a throwing motion; completely over the top with an elongated hip to ear hitch; reminds of a Tim Tebow and Byron Leftwich love child.
  • Forced passes led to too many picks; legendary arm gives false confidence that he can throw into any coverage.
  • Darnold can at times just snap, turn, and fire; belief in play design is a good thing, but locking onto a first read and just firing the football in there is not alway best. Despite seeing first read coverage, Darnold will at times still throw these passes (see: confidence in arm); this can lead to quick incompletions or worse, interceptions, on early downs.
  • While pocket presence was listed above as a “pro” due to his plus athleticism and anticipation, Darnold needs to cleanup his footwork and ball security... Terrible offensive line play this season led to Darnold picking up some bad habits in that regard; would drop ball to hip when feeling pressure leading to fumbles, feet would shuffle more quickly than necessary in pocket.
  • Can improve pre snap... Missed blitzers, lurking safeties, and buzzing nickelbacks led to unnecessary picks, most notably against Ohio State (2017).

– Summary –

With Darnold, the play is never dead. He has an elite ability to make things happen both inside and outside of the pocket when faced with tremendous pressure. While his 2017 was a down season of sorts statistically, it was this defining trait that was best on display due to the horrendous offensive line play that he was provided. While many scouts were alarmed by the 13 INT’s in 2017, it’s a wonder there weren’t more. Playing behind a leaky o-line this season may have actually helped him develop as an NFL quarterback, contrarilarly to conventional thought, because it forced his internal clock to speed up. Outside of that adversity, understand that you are looking at an elite quarterback talent in Darnold. He has plus athleticism, rare anticipation as both a thrower and scrambler, and a legendary arm. Don’t be deterred by his funky delivery; the stopwatch says that his release time is as fast if not faster than a majority of NFL quarterbacks. Entering the league, Darnold will need to clean up some bad habits developed in his past sophomore season – i.e. pocket footwork, decision making, and ball security – but overall he should still be one of the more NFL ready quarterbacks in this class, with likely the highest upside.

Final thought on Darnold – and this goes for some other top prospects in this class too… don’t let “draft fatigue” get the best of you. By that I mean that feeling of needing to nit pick a prospect because he has been in our crosshairs for so long. We have seen this happen a few times over the last handful of years with guys who were known top talents for more than just one college football season. Jameis Winston, Joey Bosa, Andrew Luck, JadeveonClowney, Myles Garrett, etc. come to mind. All ended up being great pros, despite the draft media and public having at least 18 months to tear them down.

Watch the tape, realize the talent, draft the player.

 

2. | Josh Rosen | UCLA | JR | 6-foot-4 | 220 lbs. |

Games Watched: Virginia (2015), USC (2015),  Texas A&M (2016),  Arizona State (2016),  Texas A&M (2017),  Stanford (2017),  Memphis (2017),  USC (2017)

Projected Draft Range: Top-five

Pro Comparison: Matt Ryan

 

– Pros –

  • Has the look; good height for the position with confident posture.
  • Operated and excelled in pro-style offensive system.
  • Cerebral mindset; shows firm grasp of progressions and high-end offensive schematics.
  • Moment is never too big for him; numerous comeback stories with the team squarely on his back.
  • NFL arm; solid deep ball and adequate zip on over the middle passes; back shoulder throws and red zone feather passes are elite level.
  • Pristine pocket footwork; like he was practicing in front of a mirror his entire life.
  • Uses his eyes well, along with shoulder fakes, to look off linebackers and safeties; can get covered guys open.
  • Excellent on play-action; sells the fake incredibly well and pops up quickly, ready to pass.

– Cons –

  • Limited mobility; tends to make mistakes when forced out of the pocket.
  • Needs to learn better understanding of when to throw the ball away.
  • Slight frame; injured seriously twice in three years; could benefit from gaining weight to fill out his 6-foot-4 body.
  • Teammates don’t exactly love him, while coaching staff struggles with his supposed “immaturity.”

– Summary –

In terms of overall talent, Rosen is right there competing with Darnold for the top spot. I specifically remember after watching the first few series of the first game in his freshman year, saying that he had the talent to start in the NFL at that very moment. To memory I can’t ever remember saying that about any other first year quarterback. His natural skills as a drop-back passer, with the combination of an arm, footwork, and vision are second to none in this class and are reminiscent of Andrew Luck. Yes, my praise is high, but after watching hours of tape on the kid, I stand by my statement. The only questions that creep in with Rosen are his character – how much does he love football and is he coachable? – and his health – he was seriously injured twice in the last three years. If he interviews well at the combine and can pass all of the physical and psychological tests, I see no reason that he would fall out of the top-5.

 

3. | Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | rSR | 6-foot-1 | 215 lbs. |

Games Watched: Texas Tech (2016), Ohio State (2016), UTEP (2017), Ohio State (2017), Oklahoma State (2017),Georgia (2017)

Projected Draft Range: Top-15

Pro Comparison: Tony Romo

 

– Pros –

  • Strong armed and pinpoint accurate thrower; plays with conviction in his reads and fires the football into the hands of receivers.
  • Can make all the throws; feather touch on throws that need it, while he can split coverage with bullets as well; completes a high percentage of passes when on the run.
  • Lively drop-back mechanics with a sense of urgency; reminds of Drew Brees in that regard.
  • Active in the pocket with plus escapability; plenty of ability to extend plays when necessary; improved in this area in each collegiate season.
  • Fierce competitor; general on the field with command of the locker room.

– Cons –

  • Doesn’t always throw with balance; tries to make too many “hero” throws through unnecessarily extending plays.
  • Benefited from elite offensive line play and uptempo, spread offense; NFL pass rush and pro style offense could come as a culture shock.
  • Doesn’t like to throw with pressure in his face; would rather escape and extend play; this often causes long sacks and ill advised, off balance passes.
  • Undersized for the position ; less than ideal height causes too many passes to be batted at the line of scrimmage.
  • Deep ball tends to float with underwhelming trajectory; allows safeties and corners to catch up and make a play.

– Summary –

Mayfield is a polarizing prospect amongst scouts and the larger draft community alike, but for the life of me I can’t seem to figure out why... Yes he is undersized, but are we still going to let that blur our minds after the success of guys like Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Tyrod Taylor, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, etc.? The fact of the matter is if the guy can play, he can play. Where Mayfield lacks in size, he makes up for in pinpoint accuracy and play extension. He possesses a good sense of his surroundings as a drop-back passer, while always keeping his eyes downfield. From the pocket he shows urgent mechanics without much wasted movement. When flushed however, he takes his strong and accurate arm on the move and looks every bit as comfortable. In the simplest of terms, Mayfield is a high-percentage passer with the arm talent to make almost every throw. I was torn on his pro comparison, between Drew Brees and Tony Romo, as both are accurate, undersized quarterbacks, with sneaky arm strength. His pocket presence and urgent mechanics most reminded me of Brees, while His lightning quick release and gunslinger mentality most reminded me of Romo. His ability to escape the pocket and create magic on the move though is what ultimately made the decision for me.

 

4. | Lamar Jackson | Louisville | JR | 6-foot-3 | 215 lbs. |

Games Watched: Clemson (2016), Florida State (2016),UNC (2017), Purdue (2017), Mississippi State (2017)

Projected Draft Range: mid-to-late 1st round

Pro Comparison: Michael Vick

 

– Pros –

  • Elite level athleticism; legendary straight-line speed and acceleration, with open field skills of a punt returner.
  • Springy plant and go move through the hole; top-notch elusiveness overall.
  • Strong arm, especially on intermediate and short passes; can put electric zip on passes into tight spaces.
  • Throws a great ball with a tight spiral
  • Terrible offensive line play in front of him prepared him for NFL pass rush; developed sense of urgency as a drop-back passer, knowing when to tuck it, when to scramble, or  when to get rid of it.

– Cons –

  • Questionable, sometimes head-scratching, inaccuracy as a passer; tends to sail throws over receivers heads and leave balls short.
  • Doesn’t exactly throw a “catchable” ball; needs to vary speeds better on short and intermediate throws.
  • Often throws off balance; lack of consistent feet planting and drop-back pacing in mechanics leads to too many one-footed throws.
  • Inconsistent arm slot; often drops shoulder leading to erratic wrist-flick mechanics and subsequently tipped passes.
  • Takes too many hits; needs to learn how to slide.
  • Slight frame.
  • Abandons progressions and general play design too quickly.
  • Ironically struggles throwing on the run, especially considering how often he is forced to do so.

– Summary –

Watching his tape really brought me back, as I was reminded of the days of the elite running quarterback. Almost immediately flashbacks of Michael Vick rushed into my mind, however memories of the unique arm slot and cool as ice demeanor of Vince Young weren’t too far behind. While it is easy to get caught up in these types of comparisons, keep in mind that Jackson is a quarterback all his own... The second he steps on the field, he is the most talented athlete. In the open field he possesses the elusiveness and breakaway speed of a punt returner, while his arm talent is second to none. He really has a unique skill set in that regard. I liked to see that he has no wasted movement in his throwing mechanics, however too often throwing from a lower armslot could cause problems at the next level. With almost no throws that he can’t make, the real question for Jackson as an NFL quarterback will be with his accuracy. My thoughts are that even if he doesn’t progress as a passer from what he is now, Jackson will be a successful, long-term, starting NFL quarterback – provided a clean bill of health, of course. Like was done with Deshaun Watson and Nick Foles last season, Jackson will benefit from the use of RPO’s (run-pass options). His ability to devastate defenses with his legs will make RPO’s a deadly weapon for him as a passer. With open receivers, Jackson can make the throws. Don’t be surprised if he has RGIII type early success in his NFL career, especially if drafted to a contender.

 

5. | Josh Allen | Wyoming | rJR | 6-foot-5 | 240 lbs. |

Games Watched: Nebraska (2016), UNLV (2016), Iowa (2017), Central Michigan (2017), New Mexico (2017)

Projected Draft Range: 1st round

Pro Comparison: DeShone Kizer/Cardale Jones/Jake Locker

 

– Pros –

  • Big, strong, athletic; build for the position is ideal, while plus mobility is up to modern standards of the franchise quarterback archetype.
  • Has an absolute gun attached to his right shoulder; has arm talent to make any throw through any coverage, just needs to tap into endless potential.
  • Throws a good ball with a solid spiral.
  • Uses eyes well to look off safeties.
  • Experience under center; operated in some pro style sets rather than straight spread like many college quarterbacks.
  • Escapes pocket well with good mobility down field; shows potential to make special throws when off balance and/or on the run.
  • Fierce competitor with unquestionable toughness; will always dive or fall forward for extra yardage, regardless of what is in his way.

– Cons –

  • Wild inaccuracy and head-scratching decision making; very raw in many respects as a passer.
  • Struggles to complete passes beyond first down marker, while short throws aren’t always “catchable;” needs to learn a changeup on shorter throws so he can complete more passes.
  • Lacks touch on intermediate throws and on throws around the sideline/goal line; shows propensity to even miss wide open receivers due to lack of speed and trajectory concepts.
  • Struggles to go through his progressions; after abandoning first read he reverts to sandlot football, forcing on the run throws.
  • Underwhelming collegiate production despite facing lower competition; Struggled vs. all D1 opponents; completed less than 57% of his passes in both seasons as a starter.
  • Not a guy who the game seems to slow down for; sped up thought process makes mechanics sloppy, along with questionable decision making and errant throws.
  • Not NFL ready; needs at least a full season, maybe a few, holding a clipboard and learning the nuances of the position at the professional level.

– Summary –

I’m not going to sugar coat it… Right now, Josh Allen sucks. He would make it a lot easier on GM’s and NFL scouts if that was the end of the story, but unfortunately on tape – about five times per game – he makes you drool over his seemingly endless potential. Most of the time he is wildly inaccurate with almost no conception for how to have a receiver catch the ball rather than just gunning it at them, but then there is that every once in a while where he makes a 60-yard touchdown pass, on the run, across his body, between two defenders, look effortless. Any GM willing to take a chance on him has to have some balls because this is the type of first round pick that can either keep or lose your job. Best case scenario for Allen is to go to a team with an established veteran quarterback, whom he could learn from for at least a few years.  

 

6. | Mason Rudolph | Oklahoma State | SR | 6-foot-5 | 230 lbs. |

Games Watched: Kansas State (2015), Texas (2016), Pittsburgh (2016), Baylor (2017), Oklahoma (2017),Virginia Tech (2017),Texas (2017)

Projected Draft Range: Day 2

Pro Comparison: Jason Campbell

 

– Pros –

  • Tremendous size for the position; not just tall but well built, with ample meat on his bones.
  • Accurate deep ball thrower; always willing to chuck it down field and give his receiver a chance to make a play; owns safeties and corners with excellent deep ball trajectory.
  • Underrated runner, especially around the goal line; used his big frame to score 10 rushing touchdowns as a senior.
  • Sells the play fake well; uses deception in body language and eye movement to get receivers open.

– Cons –

  • Inconsistent accuracy comes from inconsistent footwork; failing to plant his feet before throws makes passes either sail or come up short.
  • System quarterback, benefiting from the simplicity of spread offense; looks uncomfortable when asked to make NFL level reads, throws, or pocket movement.
  • Rarely asked to scramble; limited pocket mobility; questionable ability to extend plays.
  • Solid arm, but not great.

– Summary –

We’ve seen this type of guy before… A well-built, statcompiler, operating out of a gimmicky offense, against weak defenses each week. Yes Rudolph shows flashes of great potential, but always surrounded by playmaking wide receivers and throwing through wide open passing lanes, the fact of the matter is that I struggle to differentiate him from any of the similar players before him; Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Brandon Weeden, and Paxton Lynch, amongst others. This style of “system college QB” doesn’t typically work out in the NFL. Having said all of this, Rudolph’s towering size, college stats, and excellent deep ball accuracy will have someone take a chance on him before day two of the draft is over.

 

7. | Luke Falk | Washington State | rSR | 6-foot-4 | 225 lbs. |

Games Watched: Oregon State (2015), Oregon (2015), Boise State (2016), Stanford (2016), Oregon State (2016), Arizona State (2016), USC (2017),Cal (2017),Stanford (2017),Utah (2017),Washington (2017)

Projected Draft Range: Day three

Pro Comparison: Trent Edwards

 

– Pros –

  • Smart post-snap passer who goes through his progressions well; instinctual ability to slow the game down; operates in pocket without a panic.
  • Throws a good ball with a tight spiral.
  • Passes with good rhythm and lofts touch passes in with excellent trajectory.
  • Decent mover in the pocket; slides up, down, left, and right, but with little threat to take off.

– Cons –

  • Best tape came as a sophomore; arguably regressed over the last two seasons.
  • Used spread offense as a crutch to compile stats; relied on a lot of swing passes to wide open receivers.
  • Needs to get rid of the ball quicker; allows pocket to collapse upon him at times, leading to far too many sacks.
  • Average at best arm with mostly maxed out potential.

– Summary –

At lot like Rudolph above him, Falk is another quarterback with the odds stacked against him making it in this league. He too is a system quarterback, but in many respects is a different breed. Personally, I liked Falk’s tape better than Rudolph’s because he showed far more consistency as a passer. He completed a high percentage of throws to every level, while his touch and accuracy on all passes showed better than Rudolph did on tape. Without the gaudy deep ball numbers and linebacker build however, chances are that Falk slides into the third day of the draft, giving him an uphill battle in his chances to ever even start at the NFL level. Best case scenario that I see for him is as a career backup quarterback.