Yeah, we get it. There’s no such thing as a sleeper anymore. The coverage of every NFL team and every NFL player has increased exponentially over the years and the fantasy community rarely leaves a stone unturned when seeking out bargain plays. So, while virtually everyone has heard of all 20 players you see below, we are recommending them based on expected return value in relation to where they are being drafted. The industry is still formulating its ADP (average draft position) for seasonal fantasy leagues, but with the rise of Best Ball leagues, people are drafting earlier than usual this year and we are getting a preliminary look which should prove to be incredibly helpful the closer you get to your actual draft.
Keep in mind, this list remains fluid. If we begin to notice a strong increase in a player’s ADP and a subsequent decline in his expected return value, we may remove him. Of course, he will always be replaced as we are sure to find a number of hidden gems who will emerge once training camps open and players are suiting up for real.
Nevertheless, here is our Top 20 Sleeper list, a.k.a. best value plays, for 2018. They are listed in order of position as opposed to rank for easy viewing.
1. Mitchell Trubisky , QB CHI – While the Bears’ brass had enough confidence in the former North Carolina quarterback to select him second overall in the 2017 draft, his coach, John Fox seemed to lack the same enthusiasm and kept the reins tight. He loosened them somewhat after the bye week, but with a distinct lack of weapons, Trubisky never found his groove. Now with offensive-minded Matt Nagy at the helm and an improved array of wide receivers and tight ends at his disposal, Trubisky should be given every opportunity to show off that arm strength and athleticism. He’s still too green to put your trust in as a QB1, but as a very late-round selection, he could provide you with more than just back-up numbers. We don’t want to say he could be this year’s Carson Wentz as that’s not exactly fair, but given some of the struggles we’ve seen other potential QB1’s, such as Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston , endure, Trubisky could be a steal.
2. Case Keenum , QB DEN – It’s astounding how little respect this guy got throughout the 2017 season. Even his coach, Mike Zimmer, continued to dismiss the level at which he played with continuous reminders of Teddy Bridgewater waiting in the wings. Keenum went on to pass for more than 3,500 yards with a 22:7 TD:INT rate over 15 games and helped lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions. He now takes over in Denver under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave who was instrumental in turning around the Raiders offense and developing Derek Carr . His wide receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders , are comparable to those wideouts he left behind in Minnesota and he retains a strong, supportive ground game to help ease the pressure. He was a top-15 fantasy quarterback last year and has strong potential to be a similarly-producing QB 2 for your rosters.
3. Blake Bortles , QB JAC – Though few people will readily admit that he won them their championship last year, Bortles had one of the strongest quarterback plays throughout the fantasy playoffs, averaging 321.3 passing yards with a 9:3 TD:INT rate from Weeks 13 through 16. His top three wide receivers – Marqise Lee , Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook – all return this season with the addition of Donte Moncrief and an improvement in tight end with Austin Seferian-Jenkins . The offense will run just the same as Leonard Fournette continues to provide strong support out of the backfield and Bortles should remain quite comfortable in the system. While everyone else continues to reach on a quarterback and a back-up, you can steal Bortles late and have yourself a rock-solid back-up who could even get some time in your starting lineup should your QB1 choice end up a bust.
4. Eli Manning , QB NYG – If you look at the years where Manning was a thriving fantasy option, you’ll notice his level of play was always strongest when he had a supportive ground game to lean on and take the pressure off. The addition of Saquon Barkley does just that and should allow him to return to his MVP-caliber form as the Giants go for broke this season. He’s got three insanely strong passing targets in Odell Beckham , Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram while Barkley will also serve as a solid passing option out of the backfield. He’ll be able to create time-consuming, methodical drives to continuously move the chains while also seeing things open up downfield thanks to some legitimate play-action. Best of all? The price. His current ADP as of June 15 is 178.29 and with few people ready to ride this train again, it should stay there throughout the summer.
5. Alex Collins , RB BAL – When finally handed the starting job in Baltimore last season, Collins posted six touchdowns and an average of just under 65 yards per game over the team’s final seven games. His legs never stop moving and his footwork is beyond incredible. He can also catch passes out of the backfield which should augment his overall value in PPR leagues. Head coach John Harbaugh happily retained Marty Mornhinweg as his offensive coordinator so we should see the same run-heavy tendencies we witnessed last season. If Collins can maintain the 15-20 touches per game he was given late last season, there is little reason to believe he can’t duplicate his game averages once again.
6. Jordan Wilkins , RB IND – There are a variety of reports coming out of Indianapolis citing both Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines as the lead dogs out of the backfield, but you certainly don’t want to count out Wilkins who has fantastic speed for a guy who’s 6-foot-1 and 216 pounds. He can bruise his way between the tackles just as easily as he can take it outside and averaged 6.4 yards per carry at Mississippi, en route to over 1,700 yards with 14 touchdowns. Mack still needs to prove himself and Hines may be better-suited for a third-down role. If neither impress, Wilkins could vault his way into the competition early and potentially earn a strong share of the touches.
7. Rex Burkhead , RB NE – With Julian Edelman likely suspended for the first four weeks of the season, the Patriots will likely come back to this well in the same fashion they did last year. Yes, James White could also figure into the passing game, but Burkhead is also a bit of a bruiser and becomes incredibly tough to tackle once he gets into the next level of the defense. His value is more noticeable in PPR formats, but should he get a heavy workload early in the season, he just might prove to be a viable option in standard leagues as well.
8. Isaiah Crowell , RB NYJ – We all tend to sleep on the Jets because we expect so little out of them, but Crowell could be a sneaky draft target in the middle to late rounds as the team’s lead back. Bilal Powell will handle the passing downs and Elijah McGuire should remain a complementary running back with Crowell as the feature. We’re probably not looking at huge yards each week, but there’s no reason to think he won’t continuously get the call during goal-line situations. Fifteen carries per game could prove to be all he needs to remain fantasy relevant so keep a close watch as to how touches are dispersed once we get into training camp.
9. Corey Clement , RB PHI – You’re probably better served with Clement on your roster in best-ball leagues right now as we don’t have a firm handle yet on how many touches he could legitimately see each week. But as the change-of-pace back, he remains active in the passing game and was a featured pass-catcher inside the red zone, as evidenced by his 13 targets inside the 20-yard line. Yes, the Eagles have both Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood , but neither has been impressive over the past two seasons, so look for the Eagles to get Clement more involved this season. If he can increase both his touches out of the backfield and his targets, he could be a very nice surprise for fantasy owners.
10. Chris Thompson , RB WAS – He had six touchdowns over the first 10 games of the season last year before a fractured fibula cut the season short. Jay Gruden loves him as the pass-catching third-down back and continues to praise him during his offseason recovery. The Redskins drafted Derrius Guice but have also said (on more than just a few occasions) they view him as a first and second-down back which means that Thompson is very much still on their minds. Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine will likely fight it out for the third-string job so expect to see Thompson remain unchanged from his role in 2017.
11. Kerryon Johnson , RB DET – While the Lions brought in LeGarrette Blount and retained both Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah , they still went ahead and drafted the Auburn running back in the second round of the 2018 NFL draft. That alone should indicate where they think Blount and Abdullah belong in this offense. Riddick will remain the third-down specialist and Blount should at least start the season as the Lions goal-line back, but neither job seems remotely secure as Johnson has the potential of handling both the early-down and the pass-catching duties at some point. Even better is the fact that he’s going much later than the rest of the rookie running back class, so even if it takes him a few weeks to take charge and get going, you’re not losing any value.
12. Emmanuel Sanders , WR DEN – Time to block out all those past misgivings over Sanders’ production last year as the QB situation in Denver was the epitome of hot trash. Enter veteran journeyman Case Keenum and watch how Sanders and Demaryius Thomas (he could have been on this list as well) start to thrive again in the passing attack. The lean towards Sanders here as opposed to Thomas is due to Keenum’s penchant for the short, quick passes that methodically move the chains. Remember him and Adam Thielen ? Yeah, it’s like that, except that it’s Sanders this time. With his strong hands, premium route-running and a solid backfield to help open up play-action, Sanders should figure to be a huge fantasy standout once again.
13. Randall Cobb , WR GB – With no Jordy Nelson and Aaron Rodgers ’ tendency to overlook the tight end, Cobb slots in as a potentially explosive option out of the slot this season. Similar to Tom Brady , Rodgers likes to go with whom he’s most comfortable and while Davante Adams will see a significant number of targets, Cobb is expected to be his second look. The speedy wideout can break long runs after the catch coming out of the slot and across the middle and we expect him to see a nice increase in red zone targets as well.
14. Tyrell Williams , WR LAC – Even if the Chargers were to bring back Antonio Gates , Williams should still see a strong share of the targets from Philip Rivers this year. Keenan Allen has been and will continue to be Rivers’ No. 1 target, but without Hunter Henry as the tight end, we’re looking for plenty of downfield work for the fourth-year wideout. He had a few nice games in what seemed to be a forgotten year last season, but now that he doesn’t have a Hall of Fame pass-catcher stealing all his looks and red zone targets, he should be able to return to his 2016 form. UPDATE 8/19: It is possible we had the wrong Williams pegged here as it appears Mike Williams is the guy you want. With word that he will be seeing more red zone targets, Mike looks like the guy you want instead of Tyrell.
15. Sterling Shepard , WR NYG – Just go back and re-read what was said about Eli Manning and remember that Shepard is still one of the primary targets in this system. Odell Beckham will routinely draw the opposition’s shut-down cornerback and any double-coverage if the defense doesn’t have one, so look for Shepard to see a strong number of targets throughout each game. He’ll likely have to create his own scoring chances as Engram will see a boatload of red zone targets, but in such a potentially explosive offense, there should be plenty to go around. We like him in standard formats but we LOVE him in PPR leagues.
16. Jermaine Kearse , WR NYJ – Just as Isaiah Crowell could be a sneaky pick-up at the running back position, so too could Kearse coming out of the slot for the Jets. The more Josh McCown grew comfortable with Kearse coming out of the slot, the larger the share of targets he saw. In fact, he averaged just 5.5 targets per game through the first 10 weeks of the season and 9.4 per game over the last five weeks. That surge also led to two 100-yard games and a fifth touchdown on the year. That level of familiarity should extend into this season and allow him to increase his overall production.
17. Michael Gallup , WR DAL – Volume, volume, volume. That’s what it’s going to be all about for Gallup this season in Dallas. With the departures of Dez Bryant , Brice Butler and Jason Witten , the Cowboys literally have no one else to catch the ball. Sure, Allen Hurns and Cole Beasley are still there but neither is a strong enough wideout to carry a team’s passing attack. The Cowboys will lean on a run-heavy system with Ezekiel Elliott leading the charge, but once defense start stacking the box regularly, Dak Prescott is going to have to look downfield for some help. If Gallup can master the playbook, increase his route tree and follow his blocking assignments, head coach Jason Garrett is going to have to give him the ball a lot more.
18. Ricky Seals-Jones , TE ARI – We’ve got a new set of coaches and the quarterback situation in Arizona is shaky at best. What’s worse, though, is they only have Larry Fitzgerald as a consistent pass-catching threat. Christian Kirk and Jaron Brown will get some targets, but whether it’s Sam Bradford , Mike Glennon or rookie sensation Josh Rosen , the offense is going to have to feature the tight end. Jermaine Gresham is atop the depth chart, but he’s like 82 years old and can’t be on the field for consistent snaps without breaking down. Seals-Jones emerged last year late in the season but was never really afforded consistent targets. That is expected to change this year as they lack the weaponry to keep pace with the other offenses in the division.
19. Austin Seferian-Jenkins , TE JAC – His numbers from last year would have looked significantly better had he not been jobbed out of two touchdowns. He leaves the Jets to head to greener pastures in Jacksonville and finds himself in a better situation as Blake Bortles likes to look for his tight ends inside the red zone. Remember when Marcedes Lewis ’ name was whispered last year and he posted a three-score game? Well, ASJ should be the beneficiary of all those targets, more than just five touchdowns and a few extra whispers this season.
20. Vance McDonald , TE PIT – While everyone looks to Jesse James as the team’s primary tight end, it should be noted that McDonald, when healthy, saw more targets and red zone looks. Big Ben misses having Heath Miller on the roster and while McDonald will never be more than the fourth or fifth passing option on the Steelers, he should still be an active part of this passing game. The caveat is health as that’s been a chronic issue for the big tight end, but if he can shake the injury bug, he could have a solid season worthy of your late-round selection.