Picking the top-20 fantasy rookies for this upcoming season sounds a lot more straightforward than it actually was. There were hours spent agonizing over dwindling down this talented class, especially when finalizing the last few spots. A musical chairs-style tournament that goes on in the head, if you will, trying to figure out who was going to be left off the list; it was a tough process to say the least. Ultimately, we settled on the 20 names you’ll see below. Take notice because, as has become the trend over the last few years, picking the right rookies at the most favorable value can turn a decent fantasy roster into a championship contender.
Saquon Barkley , RB, NYG – On talent alone, Barkley comes in as the top fantasy player in this draft class. However, add into the mix that he’s slated to be the featured option in the Giants offense this season, you’ve got yourself a virtual lock for consistent starting fantasy production. While I’m tempering my expectations in relation to many other experts who have him as a first-round pick, consider my endorsement of Barkley as a must-start each week more than enough praise. “Must-start” is not exactly something that you can say about a lot of incoming rookies, and Barkley will certainly be just that throughout the entire 2018 season. UPDATE 8/22: Barkley is currently dealing with a mild hamstring issue, but should be ready for Week 1.
Sony Michel , RB, NE – It’s no secret how good the Patriots have been over the last 15-plus years, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, so for Michel to join such a historically potent offense was a plus in my book. Beyond that, the fact that he was taken in the first round by a typically conservative drafting team like New England, should signal that he is going to be used heavily. With theever-advancing age of Tom Brady , coupled with the departures of Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola , plus the impending suspension of Julian Edelman , chances are the Pats will begin to lean more heavily on the run going forward. Yes, the drafting of Michel in the first round is the signaling of that shift. Ultimately, Michel should have every opportunity to seize the now-vacant Dion Lewis role, which should have him serve as the Patriots primary back. His explosive and versatile skill set should spell fantasy success in 2018. UPDATE 8/22: Michel is currently dealing with knee issue that puts his rookie debut in serious jeopardy for Week 1. As it stands, he has yet to play in the preseason and has been out of practice since early August. Wait and see approach is necessary here for Michel.
Derrius Guice , RB, WAS – Guice is a fun one to watch because, at any moment, his first contact with a defender can turn a would-be tackle into a car wreck. He reminds us of Marion Barber or Marshawn Lynch in that regard. What he has on those two, however, is close to elite top-end speed which allows him to take any touch to the house. It is this combination of power and breakaway speed, coupled with his clear opportunity to be the lead back right out of the gate, that lands him the third slot on this list. UPDATE 8/22: Unfortunately, Guice has since torn his ACL and will be out for the remainder of the season. The Redskins have picked up Adrian Peterson in hopes of supplementing the would-be production left behind by the potential rookie star.
Ronald Jones II, RB, TB – If you recall, while not mentioned as much by the mainstream draft coverage, Jones was actually my No. 2 ranked running back headed into the draft behind Saquon Barkley . While I am still a huge fan of Jones’ game, his landing spot isn’t exactly as good as the other three players above him. The good news for Jones is that he will have every opportunity to start right out of the gate, but the Tampa Bay offensive line is far less than ideal to run behind. While I believe he can handle third-down duties, the consensus right now is that Jones is only an early-down guy, which, unfortunately, contributed to his slight slide down the rookie board. To summarize, Jones is a high-quality running back who will be the featured back in the Buccaneers young and emerging offense. At least early on, chances are that his passing game opportunities will be limited, which will rob him of high-upside PPR opportunities. UPDATE 8/22: In an somewhat alarming turn of events, Jones has seen a disastrious preseason play out thus far, as he currently has less rushing yards than attempts. Unsurprisingly, his struggles in the passing game have too emerged, essentially giving way for teammate Peyton Barber to claim the starting job entering the season. Our enthusiasm has since been curbed on this talented rookie.
Rashaad Penny , RB, SEA – When speaking of Penny as a running back prospect, I mentioned that he was rock-solid and more than capable of everything necessary to succeed at the position, but did nothing spectacular to put him ahead of the other high-potential backs in the class. That landed him eighth on my pre-draft list. Considering this, I was absolutely floored when the Seahawks took him in the first round this past April. Looking at their roster, it makes sense, but still on the board were several backs with more talent. In any event, for our purposes, Penny has an immediate path to consistent touches which is key for early-season fantasy success. The fact that he shouldn’t need to come off the field on third downs will help inflate his fantasy value as well. UPDATE 8/22: Penny is currently dealing with a finger issue – one that required surgery – that has held him out of the preseason thus far. In his stead, Chris Carson has lit up opposing defenses, likely securing his grasp on the starting job. We subsequently have cooled a bit on Penny.
Kerryon Johnson , RB, DET – Long, lean, patient, and powerful, Johnson is a back built in the modern mold of DeMarco Murray . Sure, he doesn’t have as clear a path to consistent touches as many of those ranked above him, but regardless, I was really tempted to place him ahead of Rashaad Penny , at the very least. Instead I showed restraint. The fact that Johnson has to compete with LeGarrette Blount , Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick for touches is the only thing preventing me from placing him inside the top-five, but make no mistake, people are sleeping on the talent of this kid.
Royce Freeman , RB, DEN – A running back whose name has gained some steam of late amongst the fantasy community, Freeman has quietly crept up the rankings after a lack of buzz during the draft process. I have never wavered though, as he was ranked sixth amongst rookie running backs prior to the late-April event. The skinny on Freeman is that he’s not. At nearly 240 lbs, Freeman is a load to handle at the point of attack, something the Broncos have needed in their backfield for quite some time. Sure, he’s unlikely to get a lot of looks in the passing game, but I can almost guarantee that he will see the majority of reps on early downs and in the red zone. UPDATE 8/22: Freeman has only strengthened our original take, as he has had himself a phenomenal camp and seems to have secured the starting job.
Calvin Ridley , WR, ATL – Finally, we get something other than a running back on the list here! Ridley comes in as the first receiver, not only because of my belief in him as the most talented one in the draft, but also because of the situation he is entering in Atlanta. With Julio Jones locked in as the primary target, Ridley will be asked to do what he does best – shake single coverage. With Julio taking most of the attention, Ridley has a chance to serve as this offense’s high-volume target either as the Z-receiver or the primary slot option. He should find himself open quite a bit in one-on-one coverage as he is one of the premier route runners to come out of college in a long while. I love him, especially in PPR formats. UPDATE 8/22: After a phenomenal training camp and preseason, Ridley appears poised for an even better than expected rookie season. Don't be afraid to take him at face value ADP in your upcoming drafts.
Anthony Miller , WR, CHI – Miller is a guy I gushed over most during the draft process, as his skill-set shows flashes of Steve Smith and a little bit of Odell Beckham . While undersized, Miller shows the chops to compete with any defensive back – either on the inside or out – and is also a danger with yards after the catch once he has the ball in his hands. I was sold even more after being drafted by the Bears, one of the league’s emerging offenses. With a young and talented quarterback throwing him the ball, chances are Miller can lead this team in targets, while posting starting caliber fantasy production throughout the year.
Michael Gallup , WR, DAL – While not as talented as Miller, Gallup is slightly bigger and potentially more well-rounded for the position. After the offseason losses of Dez Bryant , Jason Witten and Brice Butler , Gallup has a chance to join a Cowboys offense that is desperate for a consistent receiving option. To me, there is no question that he is the most-talented receiver on the roster right now, which should lend to the point that he will end up being Dak Prescott ’s No. 1 target, sooner rather than later. UPDATE 8/22: Gallup caught the Cowboys first touchdown of the preseason and has been heavily involved in the first team reps all camp long. A lot was expected from this third round selection and he seems to be delivering.
Christian Kirk , WR, ARZ – With the Cardinals doing all they can to get younger, Kirk is poised to lead the charge at the wide receiver position. To me, he doesn’t offer the elite tools needed to serve on the outside, but he couldn’t be in a better position to learn how to work the slot with Larry Fitzgerald on the roster. Working inside, Kirk has the chance to use his explosiveness, quick feet, and open-field prowess to make an immediate fantasy impact. I wouldn't be surprised to see him used similarly to how Percy Harvin was used in the NFL -- as a return man primarily, but also on bubble screens, stay patterns, underneath routes, and reverses.
Nick Chubb , RB, CLE – Chubb still makes this list on talent alone, but the reality is that we can't neglect the crowded backfield that he will play in this season. Not only is Duke Johnson – one of the game’s premier PPR darlings – in his way, but so too is newly-acquired Carlos Hyde , who was the eighth-highest scoring fantasy back last season. At best, Chubb will struggle to find the field early on but should get an opportunity to shine when one of the aforementioned two gets injured. With all of that being said, Chubb has enough talent alone to make a fantasy impact this season, but the question is exactly how much. To be clear, we like the player. It’s the situation and opportunity that turns us off. UPDATE 8/22: We've been lukewarm on Chubb's situation and that remains the case. Carlos Hyde will be the starter and Duke Johnson will handle the passing downs.
D.J. Moore , WR, CAR – In this draft, there wasn’t a tougher or more physical wide receiver than D.J. Moore . It shows in his relentless motor after the catch and when going after the ball at the high point. These are traits in a wide receiver that Cam Newton has been missing for quite some time. Expectations are that Moore will chew into those underneath looks that Christian McCaffrey dominated last season, while he will also be featured on the outside when given one-on-one looks. The reason he’s so far down the list has little to do with talent, but more to do with volume. While Moore has the ability to handle a high-volume of looks, Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen loom too large for Moore to instantly become the top target. Cam Newton ’s overall inconsistencies scare us off a bit as well. More talented than his ranking, 13th overall seems fair.
Mike Gesicki , TE, MIA – Gesicki is not going to wow anyone with his inline blocking ability, but luckily for our purposes in the fantasy realm, that doesn’t matter. Think of Gesicki as a young Jimmy Graham , who will be utilized in a similar fashion to how Evan Engram was used by the Giants last season. The best part of Gesicki’s landing spot this season is that he joins an offense in desperate need of a go-to passing target. With the departure of Jarvis Landry this offseason, don’t be surprised if Gesicki is asked to step right into Landry’s vacant slot position, with far more red-zone upside.
Kalen Ballage , RB, MIA – Back-to-back Dolphins on this list, and for good reason, as they, again, are desperately looking for offensive playmakers. While the Dolphins are ready to feature Kenyan Drake and the newly-acquired Frank Gore , I still think that Ballage finds a way to make a legitimate fantasy impact as a rookie. He’s big, strong, fast, and versatile. A fair comparison for the Arizona State product is Darren McFadden – a prototype build for the position and a back who also has shown a knack for dominating defenses from the wildcat formation. As a sub-package back, Ballage will offer a hulking and powerful change of pace. As a third-down back, he will offer both sufficient pass-catching ability and elite instincts as a pass protector. Ultimately, with Kenyan Drake never having handled a large workload in his career, combined with the fact that Frank Gore is one early-bird buffet away from an AARP membership, there will certainly be plenty of opportunities for Ballage to see some action. He is far too impactful and versatile to keep on the bench for long. UPDATE 8/22: While we will not waiver from our Ballage love, it should be noted that he has both suffered a concussion and has struggled to pick up the playbook in camp thus far. He's draft stock is less immediate and more of a long play, for those interested.
Sam Darnold , QB, NYJ – At last, a quarterback. While many will argue with the first name off the board, I am going to block out the haters and roll the dice on Darnold. From all reports coming out of mini-camp, I get the feeling this potentially lame-duck coaching staff is going to do all they can to get this kid on the field early this season. At this point, Darnold may be the only one who can save Todd Bowles' job. Some quotes coming out of Jets camp include:
“He’s light years ahead of where I thought he would be...”
“He’s outstanding, man...”
“You can tell that he’s a football junkie, he’s always in the film room, he’s learning each and every day. He’s definitely feeding off Teddy and Uncle Josh. It’s exciting to see those guys compete for the starting job, and it’s gonna be exciting.”
By all accounts, Darnold is progressing at a meteoritic pace, wowing everyone in the tri-state area. While most people within the organization know he may be the only one who can save their jobs, they also understand he’s the most-talented player in the quarterback room. No, the Jets aren’t exactly stacked along their entire offensive roster, but if given an early chance to start, there is no doubt in my mind that someone of Darnold’s skill set could finish as a top-20 fantasy rookie. With what I see as the quickest path to starting, Darnold should finish as this year’s top rookie fantasy quarterback. UPDATE 8/22: As predicted, Darnold has had a wonderful camp and preseason and appears fast-tracked for the Jets starting quarterback job. Buy his stock while you can.
Dante Pettis , WR, SF – This was a guy who I liked more than most throughout the draft process, and once the Niners took him, my fantasy fan-girling went through the roof. Prior to Pettis, the Niners were a team with an excellent young quarterback but no go-to target. Yes, Pierre Garçon and Marquise Goodwin exist, but Pettis has the talent to be just as important, if not more than the both of them. He’ll make his early impact as a punt returner – something he did better than anybody in the history of college football with his nine return touchdowns – and I also envision him supplanting Trent Taylor as the team’s starting slot receiver. From there Pettis will show his chops as a versatile weapon which includes strong route-running, solid yards after the catch and key red-zone work. It won’t be long before Pettis is the Niners No. 1 fantasy scoring receiver.
Nyheim Hines , RB, IND – Standing just 5-foot-9, weighing under 200 lbs. and shot out of a cannon, Hines is the explosive type of offensive weapon the Colts have been lacking for years. Built largely in the mold of Dexter McCluster, chances are that fantasy players are going to get a very well-balanced stat sheet from the rookie back. This should be a benefit to rostering Hines in PPR formats. For those afraid of the presence of Marlon Mack , the fear is legitimate, but the fact of the matter is that Hines is far too explosive to not get at least 10 touches per game. You could argue that Hines is this year’s Tarik Cohen , which is well-worth a look and a spot on this list. UPDATE 8/22: Hines hasn't done anything particularly impressive this camp, while fellow rookie Jordan Wilkins has. Wilkins appears to be a sleeper pick for significant touches this season, while Hines has some work left to do.
Josh Rosen , QB, ARZ – Rosen is my next quarterback off the board, as his professional and cerebral skill-set is one that should land him quickly as the Cardinals starting signal-caller. It helps that the guy in front of him is the IR King himself – Sam Bradford . Ultimately, as the most polished quarterback in the class and listed only behind a quarterback with the fragility of a Fabergé egg, Rosen will be starting before you know it and racking up ample fantasy points in the wild, wild, NFC West.
Lamar Jackson , QB, BAL – I am confident that Jackson is the Ravens most-talented quarterback at the moment, however, I feel he has little chance of winning the job straight out of camp. Having said that, the rumor mill has Jackson turning heads at minicamp and is expected to be featured in multiple sub-package sets and wildcat formations. With some gadget plays available early on, coupled with the fact that he will quickly seize this starting job once Joe Flacco , predictably, craps the bed, Jackson could have the opportunity to become the next Michael Vick. As we saw for the better part of a decade, that development could end up having tremendous fantasy implications. UPDATE 8/22: Jackson has had a very up-and-down preseason, which has only further cemented Joe Flacco's grip on the starting job. However, as predicted, rumor has it that Jackson will be featured in a few sub-packages, particularly as a red zone quarterback, as he has shown lethal in that area so far.