2018 NFL Draft Guide: Stats You Need to Know - AFC East
Published: Jul 20, 2018
It feels like every year the Patriots are king.
And if you think this article will do anything other than support the notion of history repeating itself, you will probably be disappointed.
Don’t worry, this is fantasy football! Every team has fantasy value somewhere, and the AFC East may be one of the best places to look for that value pick for late-late in your draft.
BUFFALO BILLS
Technically, the Buffalo Bills are the only NFL team to play in the state of New York. The Bills are the only team to win four consecutive conference championships and the only team to lose four consecutive Super Bowl games. Until 2017, the Bills possessed the longest active playoff drought in any of the four major professional sports in North America.
The Bills brought in A.J. McCarron to be the starting quarterback this season, but he’s been outplayed by Nathan Peterman all off-season. Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions in this first NFL start against the Los Angeles Chargers last season. He also threw the pick that ended their playoff hopes against the Jaguars during Wild Card Week.
Buffalo drafted quarterback Josh Allen in the first round this year, but he’s slotted as the third quarterback on the depth chart and posted a very low 56.3 completion percentage, and only completed 32 of 64 passes for 238 yards and three interceptions against Power Five teams last year. But… he could still end up the starter sooner rather than later this year.
LeSean McCoy recently denied domestic violence allegations and hired a defense attorney after being accused of sending burglars to his house where his ex-girlfriend is living. It’s all alleged, but he really is 30 years old, touched the ball 346 times last year, and will play on a team with an inexperienced quarterback and questionable receiving corps.
Kelvin Benjamin suffered a torn meniscus in the first quarter of his first game with the Buffalo Bills in 2017. He played through it, but only acquired 692 yards and three touchdowns on the season. However, in his first two years in the league, he averaged 974.5 receiving yards and eight touchdowns per year. With Cam Newton …
Zay Jones had more than two catches in four games last year during his rookie season. He never eclipsed 68 yards.
Jeremy Kerley is locked in as the slot receiver on this team. His season was cut short due to suspension (abusing performance-enhancing drugs), but in all but one game, he caught literally every target thrown his way. In his last game of the season he had one drop. In 2016, he caught 64 passes for 667 yards and three touchdowns.
In 2017, Charles Clay caught 49 passes for 558 yards and two touchdowns. In 2016, he caught 57 passes for 552 yards and four touchdowns. In 2015, he caught 51 passes for 528 yards and three touchdowns. This 29-year-old tight end is darn consistent.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
When the Miami Dolphins were coached by Don Shula, they had 24 winning seasons out of 26. Since he left, they’ve had 10 winning seasons out of 22. Only two in the last 10.
Ryan Tannehill missed the entire 2017 season due to a torn ACL. 2016 was his only season in the Adam Gase offense. During his first seven games with Gase, Tannehill posted 1,728 yards, seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. Then there was a bye week. From Weeks 9 to 14, prior to his season ending injury, Tannehill put up 1,267 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
Not a surpsing fact, but I did tweet out at the end of last season this little ditty:
Luckily, the original tweet was safe for work, but here’s what’s so great about Kenyan Drake … After Jay Ajai was traded to the future Super Bowl Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, Drake had 851 total yards in nine games, 594 of those were in the last five games after he was given the reins exclusively. Of all running backs who played in at least 25 percent of their team’s snaps, Kenyan Drake posted the second highest PFF elusive rating, only behind Alvin Kamara . He led the league with 4.3 yards after contact. His 4.8 yards per carry were only behind Alvin Kamara , Dion Lewis , Mark Ingram , and Kareem Hunt among running backs with at least 100 carries on the season. Todd Gurley was right behind Drake with 4.7 YPC. And yet, they brought in a ton of running backs…
The Miami Dolphins signed Frank Gore over the off-season. Gore needs 75 more yards to overtake Curtis Martin as the fourth overall rushing leader of all-time just behind Barry Sanders. Gore would need 1,243 rushing yards to overcome Sanders. Rushing yards would be tough, but Frank Gore is the only player in NFL history with 12-straight seasons with 1,200+ yards from scrimmage. No other player has 12-1,200 yard seasons, period. Only Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith have 12 seasons hitting 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
The Dolphnis selected Kalen Ballage in the fourth round of this year’s draft. Ballage was in a committee situation at Arizona State, so he already wrote his family and said he feels right at home…. I’m kidding.
Jarvis Landry caught a career-high 112 passes last year, even with Jay Cutler under center. Landry has the most catches in the first four years of any player in NFL history. Then it’s Anquan Boldin , and then it’s Larry Fitzgerald . So the Dolphins decided to trade him to the Browns.
In a supposed breakout year, DeVante Parker caught 57 passes for 670 yards and one touchdown. Jay Cutler had a 58.7 QB rating when targeting Parker. As a comparison, Cutler had an 84.1 QB rating when targeting Kenny Stills and a 96.8 QB rating when targeting Jarvis Landry .
Kenny Stills played in all 32 games over the last two seasons, putting up 1,573 yards and 15 touchdowns. The most games any other receiver has played in the NFL over that last two seasons was 29. That player was Albert Wilson .
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots were the third professional football team in Boston. First, the Boston Bulldogs were founded in 1929. They also closed shop in 1929 due to bad market conditions (I assume). Then there were the Boston Redskins (originally called the Braves). They were Boston’s pro team from 1932 until they left town for Washington in 1937. Originally called the “Boston Patriots,” this team emerged originally in the American Football League in 1959.
Outside of his torn ACL in 2008, Tom Brady hasn’t missed a football game due to injury since his first start back in 2001. Starting on August 3, 2018, Tom Brady is officially 41 years old. Last year he led the league in passing yards, something he hasn’t done since the 2007 season.
The Patriots selected Sony Michel as the No. 31 overall pick in the 2018 draft despite a report coming out earlier that day declaring that this Georgia standout has a bone-on-bone condition in his knee. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry and 3.3 yards after contact over the course of his college career. He also averaged a fumble for every 54 touches.
From Weeks 12 to 15, Rex Burkhead scored six total touchdowns. In his 10 games played, he touched the ball more than 10 times four times and went over 55 yards three times. But his eight total touchdowns on the season tied for 11th most among running backs.
James White carried the ball 43 times for 171 yards and no touchdowns during his 14 regular season games played last year. He also caught 56 passes for 429 yards and three touchdowns. However, during the Patriots’ 2017 three-game playoff run, White carried the ball 14 times for 60 yards and three touchdowns. He also caught nine passes for 72 yards and another touchdown.
Julian Edelman was suspended four games for violating the league’s performance enhancing drug policy. He missed the entire 2017 season due to a torn ACL. Edelman turned 32 years old in May. He’s gone over 1,000 yards twice in his career (2013 and 2016) and scored over six touchdowns in only one season (2015).
Chris Hogan was only healthy from Week 1 to Week 8 of last season, but during that time he played in 536 of the team’s 594 offensive snaps (90%). That was tied for the 13th most time on the field for a wide receiver.
Last year Jordan Matthews only caught 25 passes for 282 yards and a touchdown. During the other three years of his professional career, Matthews averaged 76 catches for 891 yards and 6.33 touchdowns. In 2017, that stat line would have put him in the same PPR scoring range as Mike Evans , Robby Anderson , Stefon Diggs , JuJu Smith-Schuster , and Alshon Jeffery .
Malcolm Mitchell is over a year removed from his knee injury, but he still hasn’t confirmed that he will be ready for camp. Since the Patriots drafted him in the fourth round of the NFL draft in 2016, he caught 32 total passes for 401 yards and four touchdowns. Those stats all happened in 2016 because he missed 2017 entirely.
Phillip Dorsett caught 12 passes for 194 and no touchdowns in 15 games played with the Patriots.
Braxton Berrios was drafted in the sixth round of this year’s draft. He’s often comped with Julian Edelman (seventh round pick), Danny Amendola (undrafted), and Wes Welker (undrafted).
The Patriots traded away Brandin Cooks who saw 114 targets last season. They let Danny Amendola walk. Amendola saw 86 targets last year.
Cordarrelle Patterson ’s 30.2 yards per kickoff return career average ranks second in NFL history, only behind Gale Sayers (30.6).
Rob Gronkowski has 76 career touchdowns in 102 regular season games played. He’s finished as a top-two tight end in each of his last five seasons in which he’s played at least nine games.
NEW YORK JETS
The original name for the New York Jets was Titans of New York. The original owner, Harry Wismer, said that’s because, “Titans are bigger and stronger than Giants.”
2017 was the first time that Josh McCown had a three-game winning streak in this career (from Weeks 3 to 5). In Week 7 of last season, he scored three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown, making him the first Jet quarterback to accomplish that stat line since Al Dorow in 1960. He threw multiple touchdowns in each game from Weeks 5 to 8, becoming the first Jets quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns in four straight games since Ray Lucas in 1999. Only Josh McCown , Doug Flutie, and Jim Thorpe have rushed for two touchdowns in a game at the age of 38 of older.
Teddy Bridgewater has never thrown for more than 3,231 yards or 12 touchdowns.
Sam Darnold threw 21 interceptions and lost 21 fumbles in 27 starts at USC.
Isaiah Crowell played in all 16 games last year, got 234 touches, and put up 853 rushing yards (18th among RBs), and posted 182 receiving yards (tied for 48th). Derrick Henry also played in 16 games, was in a shared backfield, touched the ball 187 times, rushed for 744 yards (23rd), and posted 136 receiving yards (59th).
2017 was Bilal Powell ’s best fantasy season on the ground. He rushed for 772 yards and five touchdowns. However, his 23 catches for 170 receiving yards was less than half of what he produced in 2016 (58-388-2).
Elijah McGuire ’s 3.6 yards per carry tied for 92nd among running backs. Here are the players who had that same stat line: DeMarco Murray , Kenjon Barner , Kerwynn Williams , Mack Brown , Byron Marshall , Jamaal Williams , and Shane Vereen .
Thomas Rawls is a New York Jet.
Robby Anderson went on a five-game touchdown streak last year from Weeks 7-11 even though only 10 of his 114 targets were in the red-zone.
2017 was Jermain Kearse’s most productive year in the NFL with 65 catches for 810 yards and five touchdowns. Prior to last season, his best stat line was 49-685-5.
A neck injury held Quincy Enunwa out of the 2017 season, but in 2016 he caught 58 passes for 857 yards and four touchdowns. He participated in individual drills during OTAs and the Jets offered him a $2.9 million, second round tender this sprint, rather than a $1.9 million, original-round tender. Also, 74.3 percent of Enunwa’s routes in 2016 were in the slot.
Only two years ago, Terrelle Pryor put up 1,007 receiving yards. Last year he put up 240 receiving yards. But this year he is a Jet and playing behind Robby Anderson (continual legal drama), Quincy Enunwa (neck injury concerns), and Jermain Kearse (see his career stats above).
The starting tight end for the Jets will be either Clive Walford or Jordan Leggett . Leggett has yet to play in the NFL due to a knee injury that held him out of his rookie season last year. Walford has yet to put up over 360 receiving yards or score more than three touchdowns in a season. The Jets did target Austin Seferian-Jenkins 74 times last season, but he is now a Jaguar.