I hope you all had a fantastic Thanksgiving and feasted on plenty of food and football. The fantasy playoffs are just around the corner. Hopefully you can take away some slight shred of information from this piece that can help you win your league. If not, perhaps I provide you with some fodder for your water cooler talk that’ll leave your co-workers thinking you (and indirectly I) are an idiot.
I Wasn’t Kidding About Patrick Mahomes
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Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs absolutely stink. They’re terrible. They’ve lost five of their last six games and they’ve rendered Kareem Hunt useless. Smith has thrown four interceptions in his last three games with 6.29 yards per attempt over that span. That’s basically what we’ve come to expect from Smith throughout his underwhelming career. That’s a far cry from the 8.80 yards per pass attempt he averaged over Kansas City’s first five games in which they went undefeated. Kareem Hunt has been non-existent as of late and sure you could blame the play calling and Andy Reid. But no matter who you blame, this team has been trash. They’ve scored just 36 points over their last three games and I could just go on and on about how disappointing they’ve been.
But I wasn’t joking a few weeks ago when I said the Chiefs should make the switch to Mahomes. The offense has been too bad for too long. The only team they’ve beaten over their last six weeks was Denver and even they wish they had a player like Mahomes to start at QB. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs lost their next three games. They’re on the road against the Jets and then home to the Raiders and Chiefs. They also get the Dolphins at home in week 16, but the Dolphins will find a way to gift the Chiefs a win. But the Jets have been a scrappy team this year and the Raiders and Chiefs would love to take advantage of this team as it’s struggling to win the division. Mahomes is a much more dynamic player than Smith. He possesses a canon and can run much better than Alex. If you can afford to do so, I’d stash Mahomes in a superflex league if there’s even the slightest bit of rumors coming out of KC of a change at QB.
Marcus Mariota Can’t Be Trusted
You can’t start him anymore. His four-interception performance last week was salvaged because of a rushing touchdown. He certainly isn’t doing enough through the air or with his legs to warrant being a QB1. In a season that’s lost Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Carson Palmer this guy is still struggling to be a top 10 QB. Coming into this year he had more weapons, a good running game, and a great offensive line. It just hasn’t come together for Mariota in his third year. In three of his next four games he goes up against Houston, Arizona, and the L.A. Rams all of whom rank in the top half of the league in DVOA. Luckily for fantasy owners he faces the Jaguars in week 17, which is largely a useless week for fantasy and obviously a matchup you’d like to avoid. Currently Jared Goff, Philip Rivers, Tyrod Taylor, and Case Keenum are owned in less leagues than Mariota on ESPN. I’d be more comfortable starting any of those guys over him at this point in the season.
Pick up Hunter Henry
Next week is quite possibly the last week of the regular season in your fantasy league. And you very well may be in need of a tight end. Currently Hunter Henry, who has disappointed fantasy owners this year, is widely available on a lot of sites. He’s coming off a big game so he’s already enough of a waiver wire target. He had five catches for 76 yards and a touchdown against Dallas on Thanksgiving. Next week Henry goes against Cleveland and the Browns have given up a touchdown to a tight end in four straight games. If Henry isn’t unavailable then go after O.J. Howard. Howard’s received four targets in each of his last two games. He’s caught three passes for 52 yards in both contests. The Packers haven’t given up a touchdown to a tight end all season long, but in each of their last three games they’ve given up four catches for 40 yards at minimum to opposing tight ends. Howard’s your guy if you need a flyer and Henry’s unavailable.
Adding a Couple of Corey’s
Davis and Coleman should be available in your league. And sure I’m down on Mariota and (to an extent) DeShone Kizer as the guys peppering the Corey’s with targets. Davis was a bit of a disappointment to season-long and DFS fantasy players. With Rishard Matthews declared out prior to Sunday’sgame, Corey Davis’s stock was on the rise. Unfortunately he caught four catches on as many targets for just 39 yards. Since Davis came off injured reserve he hasn’t topped 50 passing yards, but there’s a concentrated effort to get him the ball. He has 21 targets over his last three games. Again, the Titans have a pretty tough schedule coming up but the effort to get Davis involved should remain and he could be a nice WR stash for your team.
Corey Coleman, on the other hand, is getting a ridiculous number of targets since he’s come back from injury. He has 19 targets over his last two games, but just nine catches. Obviously you’d like to see him convert more receptions, but with 144 receiving yards over his last two games he’s at least doing something with what he is catching. Currently both Coleman and Davis are under 50% owned and can provide some depth at WR for your team.
Be Prepared for Robby Anderson Regression
This is what sucks about making predictions after the fantasy trade deadline. I can’t recommend trading him away obviously. And you can’t drop him. He’s been a top 20 WR in PPR over the past six weeks. With a touchdown in each of his last five games Anderson has been unstoppable. Anderson entered 
this week 13th in yards per catch (16.2) on the season. Over his last six games (which includes today) he’s averaging 18.3 yards per catch, which is easily top ten over that window.
There is actually plenty of reason to believe Anderson maintains this as he’s really the best target the Jets have. But over the next three games the Jets face the Chiefs at home and then the Broncos and Saints on the road. He can probably put up another big game against the Chiefs next week who have had one of the worst secondaries all season. However, over their last three games the Chiefs have surrendered on average 212 passing yards per game, which is seventh in the NFL. Over their last four games they haven’t allowed anyone to throw for 250 yards on them. They’re playing considerably better. Following the Chiefs the Jets go against the Broncos, Saints, and Chargers. If Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley are available for the Saints then that’s an incredibly difficult defensive stretch for Anderson and company. The Broncos, Saints, and Chargers are all top ten in passing yards allowed per game. Defenses will be keying in on Robby Anderson down the stretch. Fortunately the Jets could find themselves down in certain games and there is potential for garbage time production from Anderson.
Week 13 Will Be ROUGH For Derek Carr
Am I a bit of a Derek Carr apologist? Yeah. It’s pretty unfortunate how much of a disappointment he and the Raiders have been this year. They’re 5-6 and they have three very winnable games coming up that’ll keep them in contention for their division. Unfortunately it doesn’t look like Carr will have Amari Cooper (probable concussion) or Michael Crabtree (possible suspension). So what was a juicy matchup against the Giants is now looking like New York has a fighting chance in this matchup. The Giants give up the second-most total yards per game, the 13th-most points per game (24.3) and the Giants are fourth-worst in time of possession on the year. A few weeks ago this was a matchup that fantasy owners could hang their hat on with confidence and say this game from Carr could easily help them lock in a win heading into the playoffs.
If Cooper and/or Crabtree are unavailable to go next week then obviously Jared Cook gets a bump. Yes, I understand the frustration with Cook. He’s inconsistent and hasn’t scored since week three. But he could easily get a massive workload next week. Other players that could receive an uptick in work? Seth Roberts, Jalen Richard, Cordarrelle Patterson (Ha Ha!), and maaaaaaaybe Johnny Holton. Carr will have his pick of anyone from the island of misfit toys next week if his two best targets are out.
Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter (@RealDANlanta) and throw Twitter tomatoes my way for some of my takes that go awry. Thanks for reading! Stay strong the rest of the way!
Player News
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane reports TE Dallas Goedert is expected to remain with the Eagles in 2025.
Goedert and the team are close to hashing out a reworked deal for the upcoming season. It’s quite the turnabout after Eagles coaches and front office officials have strongly implied for months that Goedert had played his last snap with the team. Goedert was widely expected to be dealt during the NFL Draft. If he indeed remains in the run-heavy Philadelphia offense, Goedert will be a solid top-12 fantasy option, well behind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in the team’s target pecking order. He averaged 4.2 catches and 49.6 receiving yards per game in 2024, and had the ninth highest EPA per target among tight ends.
Titans re-signed DT James Lynch.
Lynch, 26, a former fourth round selection by the Vikings, will return for a second season with the Titans after starting all 17 games in 2024. He had 20 tackles, two tackles for loss, and one sack for the Titans last season. Pro Football Focus graded the Titans as last year’s fourth worst pass rush and ninth best run-defending unit.
Jaguars released WR Gabe Davis.
Davis, who secured $24 million in guarantees when he signed with Jacksonville last year, managed 20 catches for 239 yards and two touchdowns over ten games in his only year with the Jags. The Davis signing is yet another in a string of disastrous decisions by the former Jacksonville front office. With Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter in the fold, the Jaguars ended their experiment with Davis, 26. He should see interest from wideout-needy teams in the coming weeks, including perhaps the Lions. Davis will be locked into a strictly downfield role wherever he lands this spring or summer.
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reports WR Allen Lazard is “in play” to sign with the Steelers.
Lazard has followed Aaron Rodgers from the Packers to the Jets, and now possibly to Pittsburgh if Rodgers decides to sign there and play again in 2025. Lazard had 29 catches over seven games with Rodgers under center for the Jets in 2024. He had been a healthy scratch for much of the 2023 season, which Rodgers missed with an Achilles injury. “The possibility hinges largely if not entirely on Rodgers signing with the Steelers,” Florio said. “While nothing with Rodgers is ever done until it’s done, the persistent thinking continues to be that it will happen.” Lazard would likely operate as the No. 2 wideout in Pittsburgh behind DK Metcalf. The team’s run heaviness and resulting dearth of targets would make it difficult for Lazard to be fantasy relevant in 2025.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Cowboys are finalizing a trade for Steelers WR George Pickens.
The move, which includes a 2026 third round pick and a 2027 fifth round pick sent to the Steelers, comes after another ESPN report saying Pickens, 24, wanted to remain in Pittsburgh. Acquiring Pickens — who has 2,841 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns over three NFL seasons — addresses an area of acute need for the Cowboys, who have one of the league’s weakest wideout room behind CeeDee Lamb. Pickens and Lamb will make for one of the NFL’s best receiver duos, with Pickens functioning as a viable downfield threat for Dak Prescott, who last season ranked 15th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks in deep ball accuracy. Pickens in 2024 was third in deep targets and second only to Alec Pierce in receiving yards on downfield receptions. Pickens will have far more upside in the Dallas offense than he did in Pittsburgh. DK Metcalf, meanwhile, will enter the 2025 season as the unquestioned No. 1 wideout for the run-heavy Steelers. His fantasy prospects look much brighter with Pickens in Dallas.
NFL Network’s Jane Slater reports Saints QB Derek Carr wants to “see if he can play through with this shoulder injury.”
Slater reports that Carr believes he injured his throwing shoulder in the same Week 14 game against the Giants that he injured his left wrist last season. The shoulder issue was apparently discovered as he ramped up throwing in the spring, not as the season wound down in 2024. Carr has already had surgery on that arm and wants to see if he can play through the injury. Slater adds that Carr made two trips to New Orleans to meet with the team doctor and a decision will be made “sooner rather than later” as the 34-year-old tries to make the best decision for his shoulder and the Saints aim to make the best decision for their franchise. It would be a surprise to see Carr return to start for the Saints, especially without having surgery. New Orleans has signaled an attempt to move on by selecting Tyler Shough in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Carr has two seasons left on his four-year, $150 million contract with the Saints and a decision on his future is looming.