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Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets -1.5, Total: 224.5
The matchup we have been waiting for since Chris Paul was traded 11 months ago is finally upon us. Both of these teams won each of their previous series 4-1, but only the Warriors feel like they have dominated to get to this point. The Rockets have struggled to get Chris Paul and James Harden going in the same game, and while they managed to beat Minnesota and Utah with just one of their stars going off, that is unlikely to be the case in this round.
At the same time, you could argue both of Houston’s playoff opponents were better than both of Golden State’s opponents. Stephen Curry shot the ball well against New Orleans, but it remains to be seen if his knee is fully healthy.
The other question for Golden State is if this is the series where their lack of depth finally hurts them. It is unclear if the Warriors will be able to play any of their centers against Houston, and David West doesn’t match up particularly well with the Rockets, either. That being said, the Hamptons 5 lineup looks unguardable, and if that is the case, the other lineups might not even matter.
Pre-Game Props
Q1. The last made shot is a two-pointer.
In the playoffs, 53.5 percent of Golden State’s made shots (including free throws) have been twos, compared to 44 percent for the Rockets. Conversely, 53.0 percent of the Rockets’ opponents made shots have been twos, compared to 54.2 percent for the Warriors. All of those numbers have me leaning YES.
Q2. Which team makes more 3 pointers in the 1st Quarter?
Houston has made more three pointers than any team in the playoffs. This is an easy call. HOU.
Q3. Which team scores more points in the 1st Quarter? GSW has a +3 handicap.
Golden State is only +1.5 for the game, so +3 seems awfully generous. Also, if Houston keeps this series competitive, it will probably be because of their bench. I expect the Warriors’ starters to play most of the first quarter, so I’m picking GSW.
Q4. The first made shot of the 1st Quarter is a 3 pointer.
Both of these teams take a ton of threes, and while I wouldn’t take “yes” at even odds, it’s completely worth x4.5. YES
Q5. Either team scores 7 or more points by the 10:00 mark.
To hit the total of 224.5 points, these two teams need to score 4.7 points per minute. When you consider that these teams will probably take a while to feel each other out and exploit matchups, this feels like an easy call. NO.
Q6. Which team wins the opening tip off.
The Rockets won the opening tip in two of their three games against the Warriors in the regular season, but all of those featured Clint Capela and Zaza Pachulia. Zaza is unlikely to start, and I feel less optimistic about Capela’s chances against Kevin Durant or Kevon Looney. Even so, I’m banking on Capela’s size and athleticism winning the tip. ROCKETS
Players to Watch
Houston Rockets
James Harden: Harden struggled in the last two games of the Utah series, shooting 1-7 in each with a combined 11 turnovers. He needs to be better than that in this series. Harden can get an open step-back jumper whenever he wants against even the best defenders, but the Rockets are at their best when he is making plays at the rim for himself or teammates.
Chris Paul: For as bad as James Harden was at the end of the Utah series, Chris Paul was spectacular. Paul scored 68 points combined on 25-45 shooting with just one turnover. He is the engine that drives Houston’s offense when Harden is out or struggling.
Clint Capela: Capela outplayed Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He probably needs to outplay Draymond Green for the Rockets to win this series.
P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute: These guys have to play a ton defensively for Houston to slow down Golden State. The Warriors will probably live with Tucker and Mbah a Moute getting open shots, and they have to make the Warriors pay.
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry: The Rockets will switch everything on defense and try to make Curry win one-on-one. The only time in recent memory he hasn’t been able to do that was when the Cavaliers won the NBA title. If Curry isn’t able to blow by Clint Capela or P.J. Tucker, the Warriors could be in trouble.
Kevin Durant: Neither Tucker, Mbah a Moute or Trevor Ariza are tall enough to bother Kevin Durant’s shot, but they are quick and physical enough to make him work to get his shot off. They might also have a better chance at defending the Curry-Durant pick-and-roll, which will almost certainly get dusted off in this series.
Draymond Green: Green shot 40 percent on 4.0 threes per game in the Pelicans series but shot just 28.6 percent on 5.6 threes per game against the Spurs. Some of that can probably be attributed to Steph Curry’s return, but the Spurs’ defense deserves some credit, too. Green is a monster going towards the basket 4-3, but Houston will probably be content to let him shoot threes, considering the alternatives.
Klay Thompson: Unlike in most series, Thompson is going to have a plus defender on him more often than not. It didn’t necessarily matter that he shot just 38.4 percent from the field against the Pelicans, but the Warriors will probably need him to be better in this series.
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.