WinView Games is running a $1,000 GPP Contest tonight for the 1st quarter of the Warriors vs Rockets game.  Buy-in is just $10 and first place wins $200.  Right now we are running a Deposit $20 get $20 promotion when you download the app through www.fantasyalarm.com/wvgames so join the Fantasy Alarm Team and the rest of FANation and win some cash tonight!

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets -1.5, Total: 224.5

The matchup we have been waiting for since Chris Paul was traded 11 months ago is finally upon us. Both of these teams won each of their previous series 4-1, but only the Warriors feel like they have dominated to get to this point. The Rockets have struggled to get Chris Paul and James Harden going in the same game, and while they managed to beat Minnesota and Utah with just one of their stars going off, that is unlikely to be the case in this round.

At the same time, you could argue both of Houston’s playoff opponents were better than both of Golden State’s opponents. Stephen Curry shot the ball well against New Orleans, but it remains to be seen if his knee is fully healthy.

The other question for Golden State is if this is the series where their lack of depth finally hurts them. It is unclear if the Warriors will be able to play any of their centers against Houston, and David West doesn’t match up particularly well with the Rockets, either. That being said, the Hamptons 5 lineup looks unguardable, and if that is the case, the other lineups might not even matter.

Pre-Game Props

Q1. The last made shot is a two-pointer.

In the playoffs, 53.5 percent of Golden State’s made shots (including free throws) have been twos, compared to 44 percent for the Rockets. Conversely, 53.0 percent of the Rockets’ opponents made shots have been twos, compared to 54.2 percent for the Warriors. All of those numbers have me leaning YES.

Q2. Which team makes more 3 pointers in the 1st Quarter?

Houston has made more three pointers than any team in the playoffs. This is an easy call. HOU.

Q3. Which team scores more points in the 1st Quarter? GSW has a +3 handicap.

Golden State is only +1.5 for the game, so +3 seems awfully generous. Also, if Houston keeps this series competitive, it will probably be because of their bench. I expect the Warriors’ starters to play most of the first quarter, so I’m picking GSW.

Q4. The first made shot of the 1st Quarter is a 3 pointer.

Both of these teams take a ton of threes, and while I wouldn’t take “yes” at even odds, it’s completely worth x4.5. YES

Q5. Either team scores 7 or more points by the 10:00 mark.

To hit the total of 224.5 points, these two teams need to score 4.7 points per minute. When you consider that these teams will probably take a while to feel each other out and exploit matchups, this feels like an easy call. NO.

Q6. Which team wins the opening tip off.

The Rockets won the opening tip in two of their three games against the Warriors in the regular season, but all of those featured Clint Capela and Zaza Pachulia. Zaza is unlikely to start, and I feel less optimistic about Capela’s chances against Kevin Durant or Kevon Looney. Even so, I’m banking on Capela’s size and athleticism winning the tip. ROCKETS

Players to Watch

Houston Rockets

James Harden: Harden struggled in the last two games of the Utah series, shooting 1-7 in each with a combined 11 turnovers. He needs to be better than that in this series. Harden can get an open step-back jumper whenever he wants against even the best defenders, but the Rockets are at their best when he is making plays at the rim for himself or teammates.

Chris Paul: For as bad as James Harden was at the end of the Utah series, Chris Paul was spectacular. Paul scored 68 points combined on 25-45 shooting with just one turnover. He is the engine that drives Houston’s offense when Harden is out or struggling.  

Clint Capela: Capela outplayed Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He probably needs to outplay Draymond Green for the Rockets to win this series.

P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute: These guys have to play a ton defensively for Houston to slow down Golden State. The Warriors will probably live with Tucker and Mbah a Moute getting open shots, and they have to make the Warriors pay.

 

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry: The Rockets will switch everything on defense and try to make Curry win one-on-one. The only time in recent memory he hasn’t been able to do that was when the Cavaliers won the NBA title. If Curry isn’t able to blow by Clint Capela or P.J. Tucker, the Warriors could be in trouble.

Kevin Durant: Neither Tucker, Mbah a Moute or Trevor Ariza are tall enough to bother Kevin Durant’s shot, but they are quick and physical enough to make him work to get his shot off. They might also have a better chance at defending the Curry-Durant pick-and-roll, which will almost certainly get dusted off in this series.

Draymond Green: Green shot 40 percent on 4.0 threes per game in the Pelicans series but shot just 28.6 percent on 5.6 threes per game against the Spurs. Some of that can probably be attributed to Steph Curry’s return, but the Spurs’ defense deserves some credit, too. Green is a monster going towards the basket 4-3, but Houston will probably be content to let him shoot threes, considering the alternatives.

Klay Thompson: Unlike in most series, Thompson is going to have a plus defender on him more often than not. It didn’t necessarily matter that he shot just 38.4 percent from the field against the Pelicans, but the Warriors will probably need him to be better in this series.