Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Game 4: GS 2-1
GS: -8.5 / Total: 224
Is this the day we finally get a good game in the Conference Finals? No game in either series has been decided by fewer than nine points, and most of the games haven’t even been that close. The Rockets probably need to win to have any chance in this series, even with Games 5 and 7 in Houston.
Houston’s role players stepped up in the Game 2 win, and the Rockets will probably need a similar performance on the road to even the series. Also, if Steph Curry scores 35 points on 23 FG like he did in Game 3, this series is probably over. The first two games both went over 224, but Game 3 was under, mostly thanks to Houston scoring just 85 points.
Game Play Predictions
The Rockets have won the tip in two of the three games this series.
James Harden had a 40.4 percent usage rate during the regular season, per Cleaning The Glass. Chris Paul was second on the Rockets at 29.6 percent while Eric Gordon was third at 23.3 percent.
Harden had a 44.9 assist percentage during the regular season, followed by Paul at 38.9 percent.
The Rockets are averaging 13.9 3PM per game during the playoffs. Nobody else in the playoffs is averaging more than 10.8 3PM. The Warriors actually rank ninth at 10.2 3PM per game.
The Warriors and Rockets rank seventh and ninth in the playoffs with 18.0 and 16.9 FTM respectively.
The Warriors have a 99.2 defensive rating with Andre Iguodala on the court and a 102.3 defensive rating when he is off the court.
Kevon Looney has a 23.1 net rating when he is on the court, and they may need to play him more if Iguodala is out. The Warriors have the best offensive rating and defensive rating in the playoffs. The Rockets rank third in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating among the 16 playoff teams.
The Warriors have assisted on 65.0 percent of made baskets in the postseason. Only the 76ers have a higher playoff assists percentage. The Rockets, meanwhile, are 13th in assist percentage at 52.6 percent.
The Warriors had an 8.8 percent turnover rate in their two wins in this series and a 14.9 percent turnover rate in their Game 2 loss.
The Warriors have allowed the fewest opponents’ free throw attempts in the playoffs at 19.5 per game.
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Players to Watch
Houston Rockets
James Harden: Harden is averaging 29.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists on 46.9 percent shooting in this series. Like Kevin Durant, Harden can get a shot whenever he wants, but the Rockets have been at their best when they are pushing the pace and getting open shots for their role players.
Chris Paul: Among the things Houston needs to have go their way to win this series, they probably need Chris Paul to outplay Steph Curry. That hasn’t happened to this point, as Paul is averaging 17.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists on 40.4 percent shooting in this series.
Clint Capela: Capela hasn’t led his team in rebounds in any of the three games in this series. He is averaging just 10.0 points and 8.0 rebounds, and he was held to 22 minutes in Game 3. On the one hand, Houston might be better off with P.J. Tucker at the five. On the other hand, Capela has been great for Houston all season, and they probably need him to be great again in Game 4.
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry: Much has been made of Steph Curry’s health, as well as the way Houston targeted him relentlessly on defense in Game 2.
Kevin Durant: Durant has been the only constant in this series for either team. He is unstoppable offensively, and at this point, Houston is probably best served letting him get his points while trying to limit Steph and Klay.
Draymond Green: Green has been impactful on both ends of the court despite shooting 6-19 from the field and 1-7 from three. Green has at least six assists in every game in this series, and it might be time for Houston to give him the Tony Allen treatment and just dare him to shoot.
Klay Thompson: Thompson went off for 28 points on 15 field goal attempts in game one, but he scored 21 points on 25 attempts combined over the next two games. Houston fans have to be scared Klay is just going to start raining threes again at some point in this series.
Andre Iguodala: Iggy is doubtful for Game 4 due to a left knee contusion, and it could be a huge blow for the Warriors if he is out. Iguodala has allowed just one field goal in 41 matchups against James Harden and Chris Paul in this series, and Golden State is woefully thin behind him. They may have to play Nick Young and Quinn Cook heavy minutes, and that could be a disaster defensively.
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.