My fantasy strategy, on draft day and throughout the season, is to let the league come to me. I usually do not worry about filling every category on draft day, I just try to get the most production. I understand that injuries and other circumstances will likely cause my team to perform far differently than I expect, so why should I rely too heavily on those expectations?
The same is true during the season. I probably do not need to pick up Robert Covington if I am already leading my league in 3PM, but if he is clearly the best guy available I will not pass him up just because I need blocks or assists.
I applied the same approach to this column. In recent weeks I tried to identify players who could help you in specific categories based upon the schedule. I tried to do the same this week, but those players, in my opinion, just do not exist. If you want to pick up Rudy Gobert to chase blocks or Samuel Dalembert or Quincy Acy to pick up rebounds, more power to you. I do not feel that advice really helps anyone.
With that in mind, I leaned pretty heavily on defensive rating this week. Defensive Rating, which is points allowed per 100 possessions, is not the end-all, be-all for fantasy. Playing teams with a poor defensive rating is great, but if you get two teams who have fewer possessions per game, like the Grizzlies and the Thunder, the defensive rating becomes less important. With that in mind, it just so happened there are a lot of reasonably good fantasy players whose upcoming schedules feature a number of teams in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating. That upcoming schedule, for this article, runs from Monday, December 15 to Monday, December 22.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons (Road vs. Clippers, Home vs. Mavericks, Home vs. Raptors, Road vs. Nets) Caldwell-Pope has made a couple of appearances in this space, and for good reason. He is good enough to take advantage of poor matchups, but not quite good enough to warrant a permanent spot on your fantasy roster. He is really the only Piston who falls into that category, though Jodie Meeks could be worth a pickup once he returns from his back injury. The Nets, Raptors and Clippers are in the upper half of the league in opponent three-pointers made, while the Mavericks, Raptors and Nets are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating.
C.J. Miles, Indiana Pacers (Home vs. Lakers, Road vs. Clippers, Road vs. Nuggets, Road vs. Timberwolves) Unlike the Pistons, the Pacers are chock full of borderline fantasy plays. Last week when I recommended Rodney Stuckey, I said the Pacers had another favorable schedule the following week, so I am doubling down on the Pacers. I still like Stuckey, as he is averaging 14.2 ppg since returning from a foot injury last month. If Stuckey is owned in your league, or you need more three-point shooting, Miles is a good pickup. Only the Mavericks have allowed more made three-pointers per game than the Lakers and Timberwolves.
Patrick Patterson, Toronto Raptors (Home vs. Magic, Home vs. Nets, Road vs. Pistons, Home vs. Knicks, Road vs. Bulls) The Raptors are another team with several players who are good plays given the right matchup. Next week Toronto has the right matchups, especially for Patterson, Amir Johnson and James Johnson. The the 76ers have allowed more rebounds to their opponents than the Pistons and Nets. The Knicks, meanwhile have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league.
Josh McRoberts, Miami Heat (Road vs. Nets, Home vs. Jazz, Home vs. Wizards, Home vs. Celtics) McRoberts would probably be a good pickup regardless of schedule, as he averaged 30.5 minutes, 12 points, six assists and 4.5 rebounds over his last two games before sitting Wednesday against the Nuggets with a bruised right knee. The Jazz have the second-worst rating in the NBA, and while the Celtics and Nets are not quite that bad, the Celtics make up for it by playing at the highest pace in the NBA. McRoberts may be in the midst of a breakout anyway, but the schedule makes him an especially exciting pickup.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Philadelphia 76ers (Home vs. Celtics, Home vs. Hornets, Road vs. Magic) The 76ers are yet another team that faces three opponents in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating. Robert Covington, Henry Sims, Hollis Thompson and Alexey Shved could all be interesting plays this week, but Mbah a Moute gets the nod because he has scored at least 11 points in each of his last four games, with at least one steal in every game since November 21. In fact, Mbah a Moute has averaged 2.83 steals per game over his last six games.
None of these players are likely to light the roof on fire, but they can certainly help your fantasy team given the soft schedule. It is also worth noting the Pacers and Pistons have shown up in this space a few different weeks for having nice schedules. It may be time to consider selling high on some of their better players before the schedule becomes more challenging.