My fantasy strategy, on draft day and throughout the season, is to let the league come to me. I usually do not worry about filling every category on draft day, I just try to get the most production. I understand that injuries and other circumstances will likely cause my team to perform far differently than I expect, so why should I rely too heavily on those expectations?
The same is true during the season. I probably do not need to pick up Robert Covington if I am already leading my league in 3PM, but if he is clearly the best guy available I will not pass him up just because I need blocks or assists.
I applied the same approach to this column. In recent weeks I tried to identify players who could help you in specific categories based upon the schedule. I tried to do the same this week, but those players, in my opinion, just do not exist. If you want to pick up Rudy Gobert to chase blocks or Samuel Dalembert or Quincy Acy to pick up rebounds, more power to you. I do not feel that advice really helps anyone.
With that in mind, I leaned pretty heavily on defensive rating this week. Defensive Rating, which is points allowed per 100 possessions, is not the end-all, be-all for fantasy. Playing teams with a poor defensive rating is great, but if you get two teams who have fewer possessions per game, like the Grizzlies and the Thunder, the defensive rating becomes less important. With that in mind, it just so happened there are a lot of reasonably good fantasy players whose upcoming schedules feature a number of teams in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating. That upcoming schedule, for this article, runs from Monday, December 15 to Monday, December 22.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons (Road vs. Clippers, Home vs. Mavericks, Home vs. Raptors, Road vs. Nets) Caldwell-Pope has made a couple of appearances in this space, and for good reason. He is good enough to take advantage of poor matchups, but not quite good enough to warrant a permanent spot on your fantasy roster. He is really the only Piston who falls into that category, though Jodie Meeks could be worth a pickup once he returns from his back injury. The Nets, Raptors and Clippers are in the upper half of the league in opponent three-pointers made, while the Mavericks, Raptors and Nets are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating.
C.J. Miles, Indiana Pacers (Home vs. Lakers, Road vs. Clippers, Road vs. Nuggets, Road vs. Timberwolves) Unlike the Pistons, the Pacers are chock full of borderline fantasy plays. Last week when I recommended Rodney Stuckey, I said the Pacers had another favorable schedule the following week, so I am doubling down on the Pacers. I still like Stuckey, as he is averaging 14.2 ppg since returning from a foot injury last month. If Stuckey is owned in your league, or you need more three-point shooting, Miles is a good pickup. Only the Mavericks have allowed more made three-pointers per game than the Lakers and Timberwolves.
Patrick Patterson, Toronto Raptors (Home vs. Magic, Home vs. Nets, Road vs. Pistons, Home vs. Knicks, Road vs. Bulls) The Raptors are another team with several players who are good plays given the right matchup. Next week Toronto has the right matchups, especially for Patterson, Amir Johnson and James Johnson. The the 76ers have allowed more rebounds to their opponents than the Pistons and Nets. The Knicks, meanwhile have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league.
Josh McRoberts, Miami Heat (Road vs. Nets, Home vs. Jazz, Home vs. Wizards, Home vs. Celtics) McRoberts would probably be a good pickup regardless of schedule, as he averaged 30.5 minutes, 12 points, six assists and 4.5 rebounds over his last two games before sitting Wednesday against the Nuggets with a bruised right knee. The Jazz have the second-worst rating in the NBA, and while the Celtics and Nets are not quite that bad, the Celtics make up for it by playing at the highest pace in the NBA. McRoberts may be in the midst of a breakout anyway, but the schedule makes him an especially exciting pickup.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Philadelphia 76ers (Home vs. Celtics, Home vs. Hornets, Road vs. Magic) The 76ers are yet another team that faces three opponents in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating. Robert Covington, Henry Sims, Hollis Thompson and Alexey Shved could all be interesting plays this week, but Mbah a Moute gets the nod because he has scored at least 11 points in each of his last four games, with at least one steal in every game since November 21. In fact, Mbah a Moute has averaged 2.83 steals per game over his last six games.
None of these players are likely to light the roof on fire, but they can certainly help your fantasy team given the soft schedule. It is also worth noting the Pacers and Pistons have shown up in this space a few different weeks for having nice schedules. It may be time to consider selling high on some of their better players before the schedule becomes more challenging.
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.