NBA Showdown Playbook March 31: Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns DFS Picks
Tonight’s NBS DFS slate between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns features one team trying to ramp up their star player while another is ramping theirs down before the playoffs. The Nuggets need to win just three more times in their last six games to lock up the one seed in the West while the Suns are desperately trying to hang onto the four seed and homecourt advantage in the first round. We will likely be without Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray tonight but should get more minutes and a better shooting performance out of Kevin Durant. Here are the NBA DFS top plays we can invest in for our lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings!
Denver Injuries:
Nikola Jokic – QUESTIONABLE
Jamal Murray - DOUBTFUL
Phoenix Injuries:
NONE
NBA DFS Showdown Slate Picks
MVP/CAPTAIN
Devin Booker (PG/SG), Phoenix Suns
We don’t really have a sample size for Booker against Denver this season. In his only time to suit up against them this season, he left the game with an injury after four minutes. But he has been monumentally consistent over the last nine days, scoring between 41 and 48 fantasy points in every game. His 60 or 70-point ceiling might be capped when everyone on the Suns is healthy, but Booker averages 45 fantasy points per game on 50% shooting at home this season and the Nuggets might be severely undermanned in this one.
Kevin Durant (SF/PF), Phoenix Suns
Durant was pretty horrific in his first game back in more than three weeks after suffering an ankle injury. He shot just 27% from the field and played just 29 minutes as he was eased back in. He should crack 30 minutes tonight and I have full confidence the shot will return to form before too long. He is almost $1,000 cheaper in the MVP spot than Booker on DraftKings. That would normally not be the case if they were both at full strength. Over their last 12 games, the Nuggets have tumbled to 20th in defensive rating and it could get worse with no Jokic or Murray.
Bruce Brown (PG/SF), Denver Nuggets
Yes, backup guard Bruce Brown might just be the best Denver Nuggets player for the MVP slot tonight, especially considering the salary compared to the other top players in this game. Brown is just the ninth-highest-priced player on DraftKings, but plays the second-most minutes when Jokic and Murray are out and has a 25.5% usage rate in those situations. Last night, he played 28 minutes off the bench and scored 34 fantasy points. If Murray and Jokic are both out tonight, those are going to go way up at a very reasonable salary.
UTILITY
Aaron Gordon (PF), Denver Nuggets
It’s a small sample, but Gordon possesses the highest usage rate (28%) and fantasy points per minute (1.53) on this team when he plays without Jokic or Murray on the floor. We can expect a lot of usage out of Gordon again tonight as well as a lot of time on the court trying to slow down Kevin Durant. In his two games against Phoenix this season, Gordon is averaging 32 minutes and 35.4 fantasy points per game. His offensive and defensive game are going to be relied on heavily in this one if the Nuggets have any shot of staying close.
Michael Porter, Jr. (SF), Denver Nuggets
The Suns have completely shut Porter down so far this season, as he averages just 19 fantasy points across two games including 35% shooting and nine points and five rebounds. But he does have a 27% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute when Murray and Jokic are not on the court, so his number will be called a lot in this one.
Chris Paul (PG), Phoenix Suns
In that game against Denver where Booker left after just a few minutes, Paul absolutely took over, scoring 53.5 fantasy points including 16 assists and two steals to go along with 17 points. He likely won’t get that high tonight, but with no Jamal Murray the ceiling is slightly higher for Paul. The Nuggets are actually a bottom-10 team against point guards this season, allowing 25.7 points and 10 assists per game to the position. In close games, Paul is still playing between 32-25 minutes every night.
DART THROWS
Christian Braun (SG/SF), Denver Nuggets
You may not know much about Christian Braun, but he has been playing big minutes lately as a backup wing player for Denver. Last night, he chipped in 23 minutes and 11 points. He has played at least 16 minutes in each of his last four games and has two double-digit fantasy outputs in that time. This is not someone to plug in expecting 35 fantasy points, but he should get 20+ minutes again with ease, and if the Suns blow out the Nuggets, that number could creep up as high as 30. Braun has several 25+ fantasy point games this season, so the opportunity is there if he gets the minutes.
T.J. Warren (SF/PF), Phoenix Suns
As Josh Okogie sees fewer and fewer minutes (he has under 30 in five of the last six games), it is T.J. Warren who is reaping the benefits. Warren, who is a capable defender and much better scorer than Okogie, has played at least 20 minutes in four of his last five games and has games of 24 fantasy points and 31 fantasy points in that span, but all of them have been above 13 fantasy points. If this game gets out of hand with so many Nuggets’ injuries, Warren could see an oversized role in this one as well.
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Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.