The Dallas Mavericks-Milwaukee Bucks matchup should feature a slower moving game with both teams playing more half-court style of offense not featuring as much transition on the basketball court. The Mavericks are the slowest moving offense in the league and have been one of the best defenses letting up a western conference leading low of 106.4 points per game. The Bucks move a little quicker ranking 16th in the league in pace of play and allow the second-fewest points per game in the eastern conference. Dallas has lost their last three games including last nights against the Toronto Raptors. Here are a few options we can rely on for showdown DFS NBA for later today.

 

Dallas Mavericks Injuries:

Reggie Bullock OUT

Milwaukee Bucks Injuries:

Khris Middleton OUT

Serge Ibaka OUT

Joe Ingles OUT
 

MVP/Captain

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

Dallas’ frontcourt is very staunch defensively, but they can be beaten and Antetokounmpo, who just roasted the Cavs for 38 points and 9 rebounds and that should give us confidence in putting him in the captain spot. He’s scoring 31 points per game for the season but has scored 36 or more points in 3 straight games. He’s blocking at least one shot per game and the Mavs don’t have much skill in the post and Antetokounmpo will clog up the lane preventing high-percentage mid-range jumpers from Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith. Antetokounmpo has shot over 55 percent from the floor in each of his last 3 games. Antetokounmpo has a 39 percent usage rating and there was thought that Khris Middleton would be ready to return to action, but that isn’t the case and Antetokounmpo will have to spend more time with the ball. He’ll help bring up the ball even if Jrue Holiday stays out of foul trouble this time. Antetokounmpo has dropped six-plus dimes in four of his last five outings. 

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Doncic has a usage percentage north of 37 and even though the Bucks rank in the top 5 in the NBA at defending point guards, Doncic will take plenty of shots and he’s shot at least 50 percent from the floor in 5 of his last 6 contests. We saw Doncic play heavy minutes the last time he played back-to-back games. Doncic is scoring over 33 points per game and with the amount he shoots from the outside, he won’t have to deal with Giannis Antetokounmpo stepping out to defend him for the most part. Doncic is scoring over 33 points per game, and he’s exceeded his assist-average of 8.2 in 3 of his last 4 contests. The pace favors Dallas in this matchup and Doncic has developed into an excellent two-way player over the last couple of seasons. On the defensive end, Doncic has pulled down nearly nine boards and swipes around two balls per battle. He’s averaged 1.63 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings. It isn’t the easiest matchup, but the Mavericks don’t have a lot of reliable offensive weapons.

Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

If you’re looking to be contrarian, Holiday is the player you’ll want in your MVP spot because the Mavericks rank seventh in the league versus point guards, he’s coming off a game in which he dealt with foul trouble and his long-range shooting has been a bit cold since returning to the Bucks lineup a few games ago. Will the shot volume be there for Holiday? It absolutely should be with Khris Middleton still out. He should be looking at around 15 shots tonight. We should see Holiday play around 35 minutes tonight and his defense will be much needed to contain Luka Doncic. Holiday grabs 5.1 rebounds and 1.5 steals per battle. As the Bucks second prioritized scorer with their active roster and main floor-runner with the ball, Holiday should have a safe floor, but in a game where the tempo is going to be slow, his assists and scoring could take a hit this game. Logical reasoning with the expected game-flow steers us towards one of Doncic or Antetokounmpo, but if there was one other option, we can turn to with both teams playing excellent defense, Holiday makes the most sense.
 

Utility

Spencer Dinwiddie, Dallas Mavericks

Even though Luka Doncic commands the ball a lot on offense, Dinwiddie has still been able to produce scoring nearly 17 points per game. He’s hit double figures in scoring in each of his last three games and he’s shooting over 47 percent from the field and 40 percent from downtown. He’s dished six or more assists in six of his last eight contests and he’s been very effective both on and off the ball. From a statistical standpoint, he’s a lot more reliable than Tim Hardaway Jr because Hardaway is mainly a scorer. Like most of the Mavericks rotational players, Dinwiddie plays strong defense and he’s very good at reading through screens. Dinwiddie has recorded at least a steal per game. We should see him take 10-12 shots tonight. When Doncic drives the lane, the Bucks defense will collapse on him leaving Dinwiddie open for high-percentage shots from the arc. 

Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks

In a slow-paced matchup like this one, we should look to start players who can produce even if they don’t play the most minutes. Portis plays 26 minutes per game but he’s averaged a double-double and when Christian Wood is in off the bench, Portis will be playing a lot against the Mavericks second unit and with how horrible of a defender Wood is, Portis can take advantage of him in the paint. He’s even taken 10 or more shots in four straight games. Portis has posted double-digit rebounds in five of his last seven contests. He’s blocked four shots total in his last three games and Portis has even stolen the ball in three of his last five matchups. Portis can also help stretch the floor if needed and hit long-range jumpers, but he uses it as more of a last resort if he gets the ball and nobody else is open. Portis shoots over 47 percent from the field and if he draws Wood a lot on defense, he’ll be in for another productive day. 

Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks

His rebounding has dropped a bit, but Lopez still sees most of the Bucks center minutes and he’s blocked three or more shots in four of his last five battles. We should see Lopez take around 10-12 shots tonight and he’ll see some open shots from the corner. Lopez is scoring around 16 points per game. Going off last game will be a bit discouraging because he only took three shots two days ago versus Cleveland and the Cavs have been stronger versus big men this season. The good news for Lopez is outside of JaVale McGee, the Mavs don’t have a lot of tall impactful defenders and this size mismatch he’s facing today could benefit him. McGee isn’t good at guarding the arc and we should expect Lopez to get fed off Giannis Antetokounmpo drives. The Mavs will have to always keep at least two defenders in the lane to keep Antetokounmpo from getting to the rim easily. Lopez should get better looks tonight. Lopez has shot over 50 percent from the floor and 40 percent from the arc.

Christian Wood, Dallas Mavericks

Wood will have the same opportunities and Brook Lopez tonight because for him to be able to succeed, Wood’s long-range game will have to be on point. Wood is shooting over 45 percent from downtown and when he’s in matching up against Bobby Portis, the further away from the paint Wood plays with the ball is a more ideal gameplan for him to get open looks. Portis won’t step out to the arc for the most part. Wood has taken 14 or more shots in three of his last five battles and he shoots a stellar 57 percent from the floor. The one problem with Wood has been playing time because unlike Portis, Wood needs more minutes to be more productive. Wood only logs 25 minutes per game. He only played 23 minutes last night and the last time he played in a back-to-back he received 31 minutes in the 2nd game after logging 24 minutes for the first one. Wood is also pulling down 7.7 boards per game. 

 

Dart Throws

Grayson Allen, Milwaukee Bucks

With no Khris Middleton for this game, Allen should still play around 30 minutes this evening. Even with Pat Connaughton available, we’ll have to see how many minutes he gets as he’s just come back from injury, and he’s been sick over the last couple of days. Allen’s scoring over 10 points per game and even though he hasn’t received a ton of shots recently, he’s shot 50 percent or better in 3 of his last 4 contests. He’s shot over 40 percent from beyond the arc this season. Allen has been a bit more helpful on the glass pulling down four or more boards in four straight contests. Allen is a blue-collar player on defense and will go diving for loose balls and he’s posted steals in three of his last five battles. The Bucks will need to be hitting three’s tonight to maintain a comfortable lead against this efficient defense. 

Dorian Finney-Smith, Dallas Mavericks

The minutes will be there for Finney-Smith and he’s produced over 21 fantasy points on DraftKings in both of his last 2 contests and we’ve seen him shoot 9 or more shots in 4 of his last 6 games and he’ll be firing away from long-range. Finney-Smith is a good defender and he’s stolen the ball once per game and has produced them in four straight contests. Finney-Smith has also recorded blocks in five of his last six games. He scores fewer than double figures per game but, he’s hit double figures in scoring in both of his last two contests.  Finney-Smith should play 33-37 minutes in tonight’s game. Seeing him produce in multiple categories and play deep into games makes him an intriguing dart in this defensive battle we have tonight. 

 

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