NBA DFS Showdown Playbook March 8: Clippers vs. Warriors
Published: Mar 08, 2022
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors
Spread: GSW -5.5
Total: 222.5
Injuries:
Los Angeles
- Robert Covington OUT
- Paul George OUT
- Kawhi Leonard OUT
- Norman Powell OUT
- Jason Preston OUT
Golden State
- Gary Payton QUEST
- Otto Porter QUEST
- Andre Iguodala DOUBT
- Draymond Green OUT
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MVP/Captain
After a night off to rest, Stephen Curry should be back to his slate-breaking ways again tonight. He especially likes to break slates against the Clippers. He averages 56.1 fantasy points per game against them this year including 60% from the floor AND from three. This one is going to get ugly for Los Angeles.
Reggie Jackson is the unquestioned alpha on this team now with no Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. In his last four games, he has put up games of 64, 35, and 45 DK points. However, the Warriors are a tougher matchup than recent ones against the Rockets and Lakers. Still, Jackson is guaranteed to take around 20 shots and hand out 6-8 assists. His usage has really ticked up recently, going for more than 30% in six of his last seven games.
With no more Serge Ibaka around, Ivica Zubac has been able to produce some smash performances when he gets a full allotment of minutes. In the last five games where he has more than 22 minutes played, he averages 40.6 fantasy points per night. This will be a game where Los Angeles will have to do everything they can to keep it close, and that includes keeping Zubac on the floor for big minutes.
Utility
Thompson’s present path is quite clear. Unless we hear or see differently, he is going to play right at 30 minutes per night and score between 25-30 fantasy points per game. He has been in that range for seven of the last eight games and was able to score 20 fantasy points on just 21% shooting against the Clippers in the first game. With more minutes and his shot falling, he is worth the $10,000 tag tonight.
Marcus Morris’ game log has not inspired a lot of confidence the last week or two, but the Clippers don’t have many options. They're going to continue to roll him out every night for most of the game. Morris has primarily suffered from lack of involvement in the offense, shooting over 11 times just once in his last five games. But the shots are falling (42% from three the last 10 games), so he is still a reliable scorer.
Terance Mann and Reggie Jackson have been the most consistent offensive producers for the Clippers over the last ten games. Mann averages 30.8 fantasy points per game in that span, shooting 50% from the field in the process. He has stepped it up in the rebounding department too, giving us more than seven per game in that ten-game streak. In his three games against Golden State this year, he averages 32 DK points per game.
Value Tier
Nicolas Batum isn’t playing the minutes he was about a month or two ago, but he is still contributing his 20 minutes per night. He has over 14 fantasy points per game in six of his last eight games, so the Batum roller coaster ride has been a bit smoother lately for those who have rostered him. In his last game against Golden State, he did put up 31.5 DK points on just nine shots.
With Draymond Green out, the Warriors have settled on Juan Toscano-Anderson as the backup center, although he does have some very interesting box scores. In four of his last six games, he's played between 17 and 22 minutes. Then in the other two, he played exactly two minutes in each. That’s not the type of consistency we normally like to see, but for just $4,200 we can risk that tonight. Otto Porter, Jr. is questionable, and if he is at all limited or ruled out, JTA could cross 24 minutes tonight.
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Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.