NBA DFS Showdown Playbook March 30: Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors
Published: Mar 30, 2022
Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
Spread: PHX -5.0
Total: 221.0
Injuries:
Phoenix
Cam Johnson DOUBTFUL
Frank Kaminsky OUT
JaVale McGee OUT
Dario Saric OUT
Golden State
Steph Curry OUT
James Wiseman OUT
MVP/Captain
Devin Booker, PG/SG – Booker is getting some serious heat for a dark-horse MVP award. And while he won’t win this year, his play has been outstanding for over six weeks. Booker has over 40 fantasy points in 15 of his last 16 games and even though the Suns have nothing to play for, he is still out there for 35 minutes per night in the last four games. This game is projected to be competitive, which means we could see a ceiling game such as when he recently played Denver (78 fantasy points) or Sacramento (49 points) recently.
Chris Paul, PG – I’ll just go ahead and tell you right now. For an MVP salary of just $12,900 (about $2,500 less than Booker) and no Curry to worry about, I am going to be heavy on Chris Paul tonight. In his three games against the Warriors this season, he averages 39.4 DK points per game and he’s averaged 48 per game in his two games since he returned from injury. Locking Paul in still allows you to get Booker and Poole in your lineups with $6,000 per player to spend on the last three slots.
Jordan Poole, PG – It’s clear Poole has been the primary beneficiary of Steph Curry being out, even with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green back in the lineup. Without Curry, Poole’s usage jumps up to 30.9% (+5.2%) and his assist rate is 26.8% as well. No one on the team sees a higher fantasy point per game bump and he is averaging 12 fantasy points per game over his season average in his last six. Even with a tough matchup against Chris Paul, feel good about locking in Poole.
Utility
Klay Thompson, SG – The handcuffs are officially off Thompson this season. In his last four games, he averages 36.6 minutes per night and over 38 DK points per game. He even touched 40 minutes once and 38 minutes in another game, as the Warriors will look to feature him more with Curry out. He is also getting his shooting stroke back, averaging over 38% on three-pointers in three of his last four games.
Draymond Green, PF/C – The best number from Green’s box scores the past week has been his minutes per night. In three games from March 14-20, he averaged 20 minutes per night and just over 20 fantasy points. In his last three games, he averages 26.3 minutes and is back to contributing in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. In what are becoming must-win games for the Warriors, we might see Green get 28-30 minutes tonight since he was one of the players who rested on Monday.
Deandre Ayton, C – Ayton is a perfect candidate for these tournament-style Showdown slates. He averages a solid 35 DK points per night, but every once in a while, he pops off for a 60-pointer as he did one week ago against Minnesota. You have a solid floor and a high ceiling with Ayton, especially since he averages 38.7 fantasy points per game in his three against the Warriors this year.
Value Tier
Otto Porter Jr., SF/PF – Porter’s last 10 games have seen him have a much bigger role on the offense and defense as well as move from 21 minutes per game to over 25 minutes per game. In that span, he averages 32 DK points per night as he plays the lion’s share of the minutes at power forward. A lot of the recent spike has come from his rebounding and the Suns allow the eighth-most rebounds to power forwards this season.
Jae Crowder, SF/PF – Crowder gives us a solid floor, high minutes, and a very reasonable salary tonight. Crowder looks to be the cheapest starter on this slate, and his 23.5 fantasy points per game against the Warriors this year easily gives us 4x his salary. He has been over that number against Denver and Philadelphia the last two games and he won’t be tied down on defense when he is matched up with Jon Kuminga.
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Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.