NBA DFS Showdown Playbook March 24: Suns vs Nuggets
Published: Mar 24, 2022
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
Spread: DEN -1.0
Total: 233.0
Injuries:
Phoenix
- Chris Paul PROB
- Cameron Johnson OUT
- Frank Kaminsky OUT
- Dario Saric OUT
Denver
- Jamal Murray OUT
- Michael Porter OUT
- Zeke Nnaji OUT
- Vlatko Cancar OUT
Dominate your NBA DFS Showdown contests today using our Player Projections that you can use specifically for Showdown!
MVP/Captain
Only one “down” game for Nikola Jokic, but now he is right back on track. His 43 DK points on Sunday against Boston were a major disappointment, considering he averages over 60 on the season, so then he goes and puts up 67.5 against the Clippers on Tuesday. Jokic already has one game of 51 fantasy points against the Suns this year, but he had his lowest assist total of the year. Assuming that’s back to normal tonight (Suns allow the seventh-most assists to centers this year), this should be a standard 60-point fantasy game for Jokic tonight.
Chris Paul was a surprise “Probable” on the injury report today for the Suns, so we get to reap the rewards of a salary that's $3,000 less than Devin Booker and $8,000 less than Jokic in the MVP slot. We have no idea how many minutes Paul will play yet or if he will be on any kind of restriction, but he did score more than 40 DK points in five of six games before the injury and averages 35 per game against Denver this year.
Denver has been Devin Booker’s nemesis this year, as he only averages 29.8 fantasy points against them in two games. But he shot a combined 37% against them while his seasonal average is 46% – so that likely corrects tonight. Will Barton has been a thorn in the side of all shooting guards this year, but with Paul back to draw away defense, I still expect Booker to carry the lion’s share of the offensive load. In his last six games, he averages 48 fantasy points per night.
Utility
Apparently, Bones Hyland is going to score more than 24 fantasy points per game every time out right now. He has been getting the run and producing every night, including 24 points in just 18 minutes on Tuesday. In his last five games before that, Hyland was over 26 minutes per game and averaged an astounding 31.7 DK points per night. He also got an $800 salary drop since Tuesday, which will be helpful if we want two studs tonight. Until Murray comes back to the Denver lineup, Hyland looks like he will play major minutes down the stretch.
Beyond Jokic and Hyland, it gets a little dicey for Denver's fantasy options. Will Barton, at least, is producing almost 30 DK points per game this season and got a $1,000 salary drop two days after putting up 20 points on only nine shots against the Clippers. He will be all over Booker tonight in what will be a fascinating one-on-one matchup.
With Cameron Johnson once again ruled out, we need to keep going right back to Mikal Bridges. In his last six games, he averages 34.4 fantasy points per night and is over 25 points per game against the Nuggets this year. The best part about Bridges with Johnson out is he continues to play huge minutes. He's at an amazing 41.4 minutes per night in the last five games (one double-OT game included).
Value Tier
DeMarcus Cousins, C, Denver Nuggets
Even with Jokic carrying such a heavy load as he tries to drag his team to the playoffs, DeMarcus Cousins has come in and been a solid backup at the center spot. He's averaging only 16 minutes in the last five games but has a strong 22 fantasy points per game. He also got a salary discount against the Suns tonight, so 5x-6x his salary tonight ($4,000) is well within the realm of possibility.
With Jae Crowder and Cameron Johnson both missing time recently, Torrey Craig has been the big winner since the trade over from the Bucks. In his last six games, Craig averages 28 minutes, 28 fantasy points, 11 actual points, and almost eight rebounds per game. He is shooting an incredible 66% over that span, which won’t continue, but he can certainly expect him to continue taking 7-8 shots every time out.
Dominate your NBA DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Core Plays, Value Vault, Player Projections, Lineup Generator, & Draft Percentage Forecaster
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.