NBA DFS Showdown Playbook March 22: Clippers @ Nuggets
Published: Mar 22, 2022
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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Spread: DEN -7.0
Total: 222.5
Injuries:
Los Angeles
Paul George OUT
Kawhi Leonard OUT
Norman Powell OUT
Jason Preston OUT
Denver
JaMychal Green PROB
Jamal Murray OUT
Michael Porter OUT
Zeke Nnaji OUT
Vlatko Cancar OUT
MVP/Captain
What more can we say at this point about Nikola Jokic? His 43 DK points on Sunday against Boston were a major disappointment considering he averages over 60 on the season. Now he gets a Clippers team with several factors working in his favor. First, the Clippers are bottom-10 against centers this season. Second, the Nuggets are trying to maintain their sixth spot in the playoffs to avoid the play-in tournament. And third, the Clippers are one of the two teams right behind them trying to take their slot. This should be a game where Jokic gets back above 60 again.
It will be games like this where the Nuggets will really feel the loss of Jamal Murray. Ball-dominant scoring guards have been taking the Nuggets to school this year. Denver allows the third-most fantasy points to point guards this season, including the fourth-most points per game. Reggie Jackson averages 39 DK points per game against Denver this season and makes for a nice $9,000 salary-saving pivot in the MVP slot.
Even if he wasn’t tasked with muscling up against Jokic all night long, Ivica Zubac would be on our radar because of the increase in minutes. He is up over 28 minutes per game in his last five contests which has led to 35.6 DK points per game including 14.6 points and 10.8 rebounds. Also, in three games against them this year, Zubac averages 25 minutes and 31.3 fantasy points against the Nuggets.
UTIL
I love Terance Mann tonight as the fourth-most expensive option from the Clippers in a matchup he can exploit. Mann averages 36 fantasy points per game in his last three and is around 25 points per game against the Nuggets this year. But the reason why that is so low is that he has only taken 28 shots in three games against Denver this season. In his past three games, Mann has 42 shot attempts. If he comes out shooting tonight, he should easily pay off a $7,200 tag.
Bones Hyland is the Denver player with the second-highest salary tonight?! Well, he has been getting the run and producing every night. In his last five games, Hyland is over 26 minutes per game and is averages an astounding 31.7 DK points per night. That is a significant jump over his 18.4 per game for the season. Until Murray come back to the lineup, Hyland looks like he will play major minutes down the stretch.
Beyond Jokic and Hyland, it gets a little dicey for Denver for fantasy options. Will Barton at least is producing almost 30 points per game this season and gets a Clippers defense that is bottom-10 against shooting guards in their last
VALUE
DeMarcus Cousins, C – Even with Jokic carrying such a heavy load as he tries to drag his team to the playoffs, Cousins has come in and been a solid backup at the center spot. In his last five games, he averages 17 minutes but a strong 21.8 fantasy points per game. That is 5x his salary tonight, and he also plays more in blowouts if this one gets out of hand.
The Nicolas Batum Magic 8 Ball gave us an answer we didn’t want in his last game when he contributed only three fantasy points in 11 minutes against the Jazz. But that hides the fact he had at least 22 fantasy points in five of six games prior to that. The dud on Friday keeps his salary down below $5,000 tonight and he averages 28 minutes per game against the Nuggets this year.
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.