NBA DFS Showdown Playbook April 7: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Published: Apr 07, 2022
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Spread: GSW -14.0
Total: 218.5
Injuries:
Los Angeles
- LeBron James OUT
- Anthony Davis OUT
- Russell Westbrook OUT
Golden State
- Otto Porter Jr. QUEST
- Stephen Curry OUT
MVP/Captain
With four of the big stars out of this game tonight, it will continue to be the Jordan Poole show – and that’s a show worth watching. Poole is playing at about the same elite level we used to see from Curry, averaging 46.8 fantasy points per game over his last four contests. Most importantly, he is averaging almost 34 minutes per night.
We have seen vintage Klay Thompson in three of the last four games, dropping 49, 38, and 56 DK points in those contests. Fully recovered from injury, he has played more than 37 minutes in three of the last four as well. Now he gets to face a Lakers defense that's without its stars and allow the third-most fantasy points to shooting guards in the last 15 games.
When Davis, Westbrook, and LeBron all sit this season, Malik Monk gets huge bumps across the board. His usage jumps up to 24.6%, his assist rate is 21.9% and his rebound rate is 8.2%. He should be the Lakers' primary scoring option tonight and there also isn’t any reason why he won’t play 35 minutes in this game – even if it is a blowout.
Utility
The other huge beneficiary from the Lakers' stars all being out tonight should be Talen Horton-Tucker. In those circumstances, THT has a 28.4% usage rate and 14.8% assist rate. His usage spikes up 9.8% when those guys sit and only Monk has played more minutes. Whether THT starts tonight remains to be seen, but you can give him a slight bump up if he starts over Avery Bradley in this meaningless game for the Lakers.
After a four-game stretch where he saw only 15 minutes in three of those, Carmelo Anthony is back to 25 minutes per night over the last three contests. He produced 22 fantasy points per game with the extended playing time over that span. Anthony will have no choice but to play at least that many minutes tonight and his usage also gets a massive bump to 26.9%.
In the absence of Steph Curry’s offense the past couple of weeks, Andrew Wiggins has stepped up admirably – averaging 31.4 fantasy points per game in the last 10 days. He is contributing in rebounds, assists, and steals in addition to his scoring. Wiggins has also increased his three-point percentage to almost 41% in that time. The Lakers are also bottom-five against small forwards in their last 15 games.
Value Tier
Stanley Johnson put up four games of at least 23.5 fantasy points in the last couple of weeks when the Lakers were without at least two of their Big Three stars. Now he is in line to start and play big minutes similar to when he was playing mid-30s minutes at the end of March. Now just $3,400 on DK, he should provide immediate value at that salary considering how often he will be needed.
The $3,800 salary for Gary Payton II tonight is especially good when you consider he can get a healthy number of minutes in the fourth quarter with this game likely turning into a blowout. Payton is playing around 20 minutes per night anyway and he has at least 15 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. That 20-minute threshold is important for Payton. When he plays between 20-29 minutes this year, he averages 10 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and shoots 65% from the field.
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Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.