NBA DFS Showdown Playbook April 1: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Published: Apr 01, 2022
This game really matters tonight as both the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans are duking it out for the final spot in the NBA Playoff play-in game. Currently, the Pelicans own a 0.5 game lead while the Lakers could fall out of the equation if they lose this game and the San Antonio Spurs win. We could be getting the return of both LeBron James and Anthony Davis too.
Odds
Spread: NOP -2.5
Total: 230.5
Injuries
New Orleans
- Zion Williamson - OUT
- Kira Lewis Jr. - OUT
Los Angeles
- LeBron James - QUEST
- Anthony Davis - QUEST
- Kendrick Nunn - OUT
CPT/MVP
If LeBron James does suit up, he’s the top play in this game. Even with Expect Anthony Davis to be limited even if he plays, which will keep the ball in James’ hands more often than not. With James, Davis, and Russell Westbrook on the floor, LBJ has a 28.4% usage rate and averages 1.18 FP/min – both lead the team. James has averaged 35.5 points and 55.5 DKP against the Pelicans this year. The winner of this game takes control of the final play-in game seed.
It’s been two games since Brandon Ingram has come back from injury and hasn’t been fully deployed yet, but the stakes haven’t been as high as they’re going to be in this game. Ingram has put up 37+ DKP in two straight games and he’s averaged 40.8 DKP/game in two games against the Lakers.
Even with Brandon Ingram returning to the lineup, Jonas Valanciunas has been excellent lately. He’s had nine straight double-doubles and has 40+ DKP in six straight games, including each of the last two with Ingram back. Valanciunas has as safe of a floor going up against the Lakers who have been a bottom-five defense in March.
UTIL
The Lakers haven’t confirmed it yet, but it’s likely that Anthony Davis suits up here. However, he’s expected to be limited if he does suit up. If he can play anywhere around 25 minutes, he’s an interesting tournament option. Davis has been better at home this year, averaging 50 DKP/game compared to 41 DKP/game at home. GPPs only.
With Brandon Ingram back, CJ McCollum has very blatantly taken a backseat – or at least he has in the last two games. McCollum’s usage when sharing the floor with Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas sits around 24%, which is five percent less than Ingram’s. We know he’s an elite scorer and has 50+ DKP upside, though.
With LeBron James and Anthony Davis listed as questionable, Malik Monk has the potential to once again play 30+ minutes and be one of the two primary scorers on the team – if both James/and Davis end up sitting. Monk can catch fire even if James and Davis play, and he can break a slate if he starts making shots. His role shouldn’t be too diminished if they play, because Davis is likely limited.
Since returning to action, Larry Nance Jr. has looked sharp for the Pelicans. He played 22 minutes last time out, which was the most he’s played with his new team. Nance can put up a crooked number due to his ability to do everything on the floor. He’s had 18+ minutes and 15+ DKP in each game with the Pelicans.
Even with Brandon Ingram back, Trey Murphy III played 23 minutes and scored 10 points and 20 DKP – which was the second straight game he topped those numbers. He’s very GPP-oriented with the Pelicans essentially at full strength.
Others to consider if Anthony Davis & LeBron James sit:
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Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
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Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
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Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.