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In my years writing for FantasyAlarm, it has been my privilege to try out a lot of new fantasy sites. If I have learned anything from that experience, it is the value of understanding the rules of whatever game I am playing. That is especially true of MyPrizePicks.com.
On PrizePicks, the game is exceptionally simple. You choose the sport you wish to play, and then you choose 2-4 players from that day’s slate. Each player has a projected fantasy point total, and you simply have to decide if that player will get over or under his projected point total. If you are correct for all of the chosen players you win. How much you win depends on how many picks you make. A two-pick entry pays 2.5x, a three-pick entry pays 5x and a four-pick entry pays 10x.
As I said, that part is easy. The tricky part is the scoring. PrizePicks awards one point for every point scored, 1.2 points per rebound and 1.5 points per assist. They also subtract one point for every turnover. That is pretty standard. What is different is PrizePicks awards three points for every block and steal. There also are not bonus points for made threes, double-doubles or triple-doubles as is common in DFS scoring.
In my time playing on PrizePicks I have noticed that the scoring plays a big role in what I’m picking. If a player doesn’t contribute in steals or blocks, or if he commits a lot of turnovers, he’s going to have a hard time getting over 40 fantasy points unless he is a monster across the other categories. When I first look at the PrizePicks projections, some of them immediately stood out as either too high or too low until I looked more closely at the fantasy scoring. There is nothing wrong with following your gut if you have a strong feeling, but be sure to take the scoring into account before you make your picks.
Speaking of making picks, I’m going to make the maximum four picks each time I write this article. That way, if you like to play four-pick entries, you know what I recommend. I will present those four picks in my order of preference, so you can decide appropriately if you would rather make just two or three picks. I will make an entry every time I write this article, though how many picks I make will depend on how strongly I feel, as well as how I want to manage my bankroll. I was planning on just playing two picks in Monday’s slate, but with the Clint Capela news, I’m awfully tempted to make it three.
Steve’s Picks for January 14, 2019
Kemba Walker vs. San Antonio Spurs
Projected Fantasy Points: 37.5
UNDER
Walker had his best game in in over two weeks on Saturday, and he still finished under 37.5 fantasy points. I wrote in Saturday’s NBA DFS Playbook that I think Walker needs to rest, and until he does, topping 37.5 fantasy points feels extremely unlikely.
LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Charlotte Hornets
Projected Fantasy Points: 41.6
UNDER
I like this matchup for Aldridge, but he has gone over 41.6 fantasy points just once in his last six games. He basically needs to score 30 points to have much of a chance, and while he’s certainly capable, I think the odds are against it.
Marc Gasol vs. Houston Rockets
Projected Fantasy Points: 39.0
OVER
I was awfully tempted to make this pick anyway, but the Clint Capela news sealed it for me. Gasol went over 39.0 fantasy points in both of his games against Houston this season, and that was with Capela active. There is nothing to suggest Nene is capable of playing 30+ minutes or that they can get any competent minutes from Marquese Chriss . I love P.J. Tucker, but he can’t stop Gasol, and Houston doesn’t really have the depth to give Tucker too many minutes at center anyway. The more I think about it, I should probably rank this pick even higher.
Donovan Mitchell vs. Detroit Pistons
Projected Fantasy Points: 46.2
OVER
Mitchell has had at least 49.3 fantasy points in each of the last three games with Ricky Rubio out. I wish the projection was a bit lower, but I still like Mitchell to have another big game.
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.