NBA DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups, Injuries & More Today: Tuesday Playbook
Published: Mar 18, 2025
Happy Tuesday, March 18th! We have a 4-game NBA DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
It's finally March Madness in the NCAA streets, but if you've been playing NBA DFS since the new year, the league has been pretty maddening for a few months!
Some of tonight's bigger news items: Jayson Tatum and Evan Mobley are questionable, LaMelo Ball received the mid-day downgrade (to questionable), and Stephen Curry is rumored to possibly sit this evening on the second leg of a back-to-back after looking “fatigued.”
If Tatum sits: Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday became pretty safe, per dollar, and it would really help out Payton Pritchard.
If Tatum plays: Probably one of the best large-field tourney plays on the slate. 5.4% usage bump, 52.38 DKP per 36 without Jaylen Brown on the floor this season. What's the point of worrying about blowouts when guys like Quentin Grimes have morphed into Jerry Stackhouse lately?
If LaMelo sits : Pretty much everyone else on the team is cheap, so I can't argue against anyone that is projected for minutes and a role on this slate for GPPs. They're already without Miles Bridges (and Brandon Miller). Mark Williams will go slightly overlooked, IMO. He is a massive FPPM producer, and there might be some public sticker shock at $8,100. Our guy Grande also likes this one, he noted that Atlanta is 27th in defending points in the paint since Jan. 20, which was OO's first start.
If LaMelo plays: Great game environment, will be super chalky. I'm positive i'll have shares in multi stuff. We're splitting hairs on a small slate, he has 60-point upside, and that's the bottom line.
If Curry sits: Golden State just has so many pieces, and we also need an update on Podz. Jimmy Butler makes sense and should be relatively safe in this scenario. Steve Kerr just has so many smaller guards and wings, and he's a nightmare to deal with. GP2 has been playing a lot, and he may be a nice leverage value piece if the news doesn't break until after lock. Moses Moody has seen his price jump, but if Curry or Podz miss, I don't hate it for GPPs. Moody has seen 25+ minutes in 7 straight games. Despite a few brutal games, if Curry misses, I like Buddy Hield for large-field GPPs. Don't get me wrong his game log is UGLY, and Kerr hates him…but Buddy has seen a 6.5% usage bump in 77 minutes with Curry off the floor in March. If Curry and Podz are both out, fire Buddy up with more confidence. That being said, the biggest winner might be Jonathan Kuminga. He's played three games since returning from a lengthy abssence, and he played 27 minutes yesterday against the Nuggets. He's given us usage rates in the mid-20s, and his price is cheap. You never know with Kerr, but to me, Kuminga makes sense on this slate for us.
If Mobley sits: It's an ugly game environment, and no doubt some Cavs may benefit in this case, but we may want to look at the other side of the court and consider James Harden a much better GPP option. There's about a 5-point difference in the Cavs' opponents offensive rating depending on when Mobley is on/off the court. That's a big deal, and on a small slate, I'm willing to take some more risks and get away from projections a little more.
Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.
- News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
- Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
- Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
- NBA DFS Projections
- Lineup Generator
- NBA Ownership
NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, March 18th
Be sure to like and subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel!
Pre/Post-Lock Update
This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock.
Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.
UPDATE - 4:55 p.m. ET
- Stephen Curry - OUT
- Quentin Post - Q
UPDATE - 6:04 p.m. ET
- LaMelo Ball - OUT
- Noah Clowney - IN
- Ziaire Williams - IN
- Trae Young - IN
UPDATE - 6:10 p.m. ET
- Jayson Tatum - OUT
All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G
NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 3/18
- Jayson Tatum - Q
- LaMelo Ball - Q
- Stephen Curry - Q
- Brandon Podziemski - Q
- Evan Mobley - Q
- Jaylen Brown - OUT
- Miles Bridges - OUT
- Cam Thomas - OUT
- Caris LeVert - OUT
- Clint Capela - OUT
NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews
In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.
NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks
Here are the core players I’m looking at for my NBA DFS picks tonight. You can see the full analysis of tonight’s NBA DFS projections and player pool below or skip ahead to building the best lineups possible by locking these into the aforementioned lineup generator now.
High
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Trae Young
Mid
- Dyson Daniels, Jimmy Butler, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Jonathan Kuminga (slightly better on FD), Brandon Podziemski (better on FD), Jrue Holiday (GPP), Jarrett Allen (GPP, *If Mobley OUT*)
Value
- Damion Baugh, Seth Curry, Wendell Moore Jr., DaQuan Jeffries, Zaccharie Risacher, Nick Smith (FD)
Don't Miss The NBA DFS Playbook Live Show At 5:00 PM ET
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | DK Pts (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) | FD Pts (Click to sort ascending) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | James Harden | CLE @ LAC Tue 10:30 | 10300 | 52 | 9700 | 49.7 |
I'm not going to write up every hypothetical since I covered a lot of it in the intro. Be sure to tune into the live show at 5 p.m. and pop in our Discord. If you're looking for a 5%-ish play on a 4-game slate, Harden is your guy. Like it more if Mobley is out, but I'm not certain he'll make my SE team. A large-field option. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| PG | Trae Young | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 9800 | 50.4 | 9600 | 46.1 |
Trae won't have Caris LeVert in the lineup tonight. I have no issue paying up for him - ATL has the highest TT on the board, and if Ball sits, he's a way to run a game stack with some cheap CHA chalk. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| PG | LaMelo Ball | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 9500 | 0 | 9500 | 0 |
If he's in, I ever so slightly prefer him to Trae, but that will likely come with a higher pOWN%. I'm positive I'll have shares of both in my low-dollar builds. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| PG | Damian Lillard | MIL @ GSW Tue 10:00 | 8500 | 46.7 | 8800 | 44.5 |
Nobody will rush to play Dame after dropping 50+ DKP in two of his last three games – with Giannis active. His floor is much lower, but his ownership and price are too. I'd throw a sprinkle in large-field stuff. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| PG | Jrue Holiday | BKN @ BOS Tue 7:30 | 5200 | 31 | 5800 | 30.6 |
Cheap and won't kill ya. No Brown, and maybe no Tatum. Give him bigger bump up if Tatum is out. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| SG | Derrick White | BKN @ BOS Tue 7:30 | 7300 | 42.3 | 7100 | 41.1 |
This position is REALLY ugly. I like White for his floor at SG without Jaylen Brown. If Tatum is out he'll become more of a priority. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| SG | Dyson Daniels | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 6900 | 35.3 | 7800 | 37.4 |
Real ugly position. At $6,900 on DK, Daniels is probably the highest floor/ceiling combo at SG. Unless we get a lot of news that opens up some GSW and CHA value here, he'll probably be on a lot of my teams. We'll see. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| SG | Payton Pritchard | BKN @ BOS Tue 7:30 | 5800 | 34.2 | 5900 | 32.6 |
Might land on some Pritch regardless of Tatum's status. He could also see garbage run in the right scenario. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| SG | Brandin Podziemski | MIL @ GSW Tue 10:00 | 5700 | 30.4 | 5000 | 30.3 |
Will be one of my favorite plays if he's in and Curry is out. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| SG | Nick Smith | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 4700 | 30.3 | 4200 | 28.4 |
Will be much more appealing if LaMelo is out. He's really cheap on FD, and you might have to look there unless there are better options. But if LaMelo is out, he'll likely be mega chalk, especially on FD. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| SG | Gary Payton | MIL @ GSW Tue 10:00 | 3900 | 22.4 | 4600 | 23 |
Payton has been getting a lot of burn lately. He could be a key cog of this slate if Curry and/or Podz are out. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| SF | Jayson Tatum | BKN @ BOS Tue 7:30 | 10800 | 0 | 10500 | 0 |
Tatum is really expensive, but if he plays, he's one of the better GPP plays due to his ceiling without Brown and his projected low ownership. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| SF | Zaccharie Risacher | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 4400 | 21.2 | 4700 | 21 |
No LeVert, and ATL has the highest TT on the board. Remember, it's a small slate, so we're going to be more invested in guys we typically aren't AS high on compared to a normal slate. He's probably one of the better value plays as of the afternoon. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| SF | DaQuan Jeffries | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 4000 | 26.2 | 4200 | 26.6 |
He's so cheap and squarely in play without Bridges. If LaMelo is out, he'll be even more popular - and it's warranted. He's not a great historical FPPM producer, but we don't have a lot to work with today. He'd be in line for major minutes. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| SF | Josh Green | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 3900 | 20.7 | 4100 | 20.7 |
CC above. Prefer LaMelo out, etc. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| SF | Buddy Hield | MIL @ GSW Tue 10:00 | 4500 | 21.7 | 4800 | 20.9 |
I wrote about Buddy in the intro. Big usage bump without Curry this month. Minutes are “sus” as the kids say, but he has a huge ceiling (and an equally scary floor) at his price. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| SF | Terance Mann | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 4000 | 18.6 | 4000 | 18.9 |
Been seeing some big minutes, and LeVert is out. He just rarely fills it up. However, we can hope for an outlier game on a small slate. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| PF | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL @ GSW Tue 10:00 | 11500 | 59.8 | 11700 | 57.9 |
Giannis has been cooking, and it's full steam ahead in a game that Vegas thinks will be competitive. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| PF | Jimmy Butler | MIL @ GSW Tue 10:00 | 7900 | 37.1 | 8100 | 37.6 |
Jimmy and the Warriors have been great. He's in play for tourneys on this small slate, even if Curry plays. If you can't stomach the value at F, I have no issues with Butler in a late-night hammer game with a tight spread. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| PF | Draymond Green | MIL @ GSW Tue 10:00 | 6200 | 32.5 | 6600 | 32.9 |
Draymond feels like a cash play, with a high floor in a alleged competitive game. Game Type: CASH | ||||||
| PF | Jonathan Kuminga | MIL @ GSW Tue 10:00 | 5500 | 29.1 | 5400 | 29 |
Welp, Curry is out now, so unless we hear about any type of restrictions for Kuminga, he's certainly squarely in the conversation on this tiny slate. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| PF | Georges Niang | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 4200 | 21.1 | 4300 | 19.8 |
Niang lives and dies by the 3-ball a lot, but without LeVert, he should have a bigger role in a cupcake matchup. As of the afternoon, he's a good value play. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| PF | Wendell Moore | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 17.7 | 3800 | 18.1 | |
Moore has a scary floor, but add him to the laundry list of Hornets that are on the radar, and will be even more so if Ball sits. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| C | Ivica Zubac | CLE @ LAC Tue 10:30 | 8400 | 44.2 | 8000 | 43.3 |
Zubac will probably offer one of the safest floors at the position tonight despite the tough matchup. They'll need his height. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
| C | Mark Williams | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 8100 | 41.5 | 8000 | 41 |
Today's cover boy is in play for GPPs regardless of LaMelo's situation, but I'll be very invested if Ball is out, like I said in the intro. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| C | Onyeka Okongwu | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 7500 | 35 | 7800 | 35.7 |
I think OO might get worked on the defensive end, but Williams is no defensive savant either Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| C | Al Horford | BKN @ BOS Tue 7:30 | 5100 | 26.5 | 5300 | 26.4 |
This guy burns me a lot, but if Tatum is out, Al might have a nice little ceiling at a cheap price on a small slate. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
| C | Jusuf Nurkić | ATL @ CHA Tue 7:00 | 3300 | 12.8 | 4600 | 12.6 |
Nurk is so cheap on DK that he kind of just has to exist in like 15-20 minutes to be “fine” at worst. He's recent log is a bit brutal, but I'm very interested in GPPs - but this is mostly a DK-specific play due to price. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
James Harden, PG | 10300 , 52 | 52 | 9700 , 49.7 | 49.7 | ||
I'm not going to write up every hypothetical since I covered a lot of it in the intro. Be sure to tune into the live show at 5 p.m. and pop in our Discord. If you're looking for a 5%-ish play on a 4-game slate, Harden is your guy. Like it more if Mobley is out, but I'm not certain he'll make my SE team. A large-field option. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Trae Young, PG | 9800 , 50.4 | 50.4 | 9600 , 46.1 | 46.1 | ||
Trae won't have Caris LeVert in the lineup tonight. I have no issue paying up for him - ATL has the highest TT on the board, and if Ball sits, he's a way to run a game stack with some cheap CHA chalk. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
LaMelo Ball, PG | 9500 , 0 | 0 | 9500 , 0 | 0 | ||
If he's in, I ever so slightly prefer him to Trae, but that will likely come with a higher pOWN%. I'm positive I'll have shares of both in my low-dollar builds. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Damian Lillard, PG | 8500 , 46.7 | 46.7 | 8800 , 44.5 | 44.5 | ||
Nobody will rush to play Dame after dropping 50+ DKP in two of his last three games – with Giannis active. His floor is much lower, but his ownership and price are too. I'd throw a sprinkle in large-field stuff. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Jrue Holiday, PG | 5200 , 31 | 31 | 5800 , 30.6 | 30.6 | ||
Cheap and won't kill ya. No Brown, and maybe no Tatum. Give him bigger bump up if Tatum is out. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Derrick White, SG | 7300 , 42.3 | 42.3 | 7100 , 41.1 | 41.1 | ||
This position is REALLY ugly. I like White for his floor at SG without Jaylen Brown. If Tatum is out he'll become more of a priority. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Dyson Daniels, SG | 6900 , 35.3 | 35.3 | 7800 , 37.4 | 37.4 | ||
Real ugly position. At $6,900 on DK, Daniels is probably the highest floor/ceiling combo at SG. Unless we get a lot of news that opens up some GSW and CHA value here, he'll probably be on a lot of my teams. We'll see. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Payton Pritchard, SG | 5800 , 34.2 | 34.2 | 5900 , 32.6 | 32.6 | ||
Might land on some Pritch regardless of Tatum's status. He could also see garbage run in the right scenario. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
5700 , 30.4 | 30.4 | 5000 , 30.3 | 30.3 | |||
Will be one of my favorite plays if he's in and Curry is out. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Nick Smith, SG | 4700 , 30.3 | 30.3 | 4200 , 28.4 | 28.4 | ||
Will be much more appealing if LaMelo is out. He's really cheap on FD, and you might have to look there unless there are better options. But if LaMelo is out, he'll likely be mega chalk, especially on FD. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Gary Payton, SG | 3900 , 22.4 | 22.4 | 4600 , 23 | 23 | ||
Payton has been getting a lot of burn lately. He could be a key cog of this slate if Curry and/or Podz are out. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Jayson Tatum, SF | 10800 , 0 | 0 | 10500 , 0 | 0 | ||
Tatum is really expensive, but if he plays, he's one of the better GPP plays due to his ceiling without Brown and his projected low ownership. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
4400 , 21.2 | 21.2 | 4700 , 21 | 21 | |||
No LeVert, and ATL has the highest TT on the board. Remember, it's a small slate, so we're going to be more invested in guys we typically aren't AS high on compared to a normal slate. He's probably one of the better value plays as of the afternoon. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
DaQuan Jeffries, SF | 4000 , 26.2 | 26.2 | 4200 , 26.6 | 26.6 | ||
He's so cheap and squarely in play without Bridges. If LaMelo is out, he'll be even more popular - and it's warranted. He's not a great historical FPPM producer, but we don't have a lot to work with today. He'd be in line for major minutes. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Josh Green, SF | 3900 , 20.7 | 20.7 | 4100 , 20.7 | 20.7 | ||
CC above. Prefer LaMelo out, etc. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Buddy Hield, SF | 4500 , 21.7 | 21.7 | 4800 , 20.9 | 20.9 | ||
I wrote about Buddy in the intro. Big usage bump without Curry this month. Minutes are “sus” as the kids say, but he has a huge ceiling (and an equally scary floor) at his price. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Terance Mann, SF | 4000 , 18.6 | 18.6 | 4000 , 18.9 | 18.9 | ||
Been seeing some big minutes, and LeVert is out. He just rarely fills it up. However, we can hope for an outlier game on a small slate. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
11500 , 59.8 | 59.8 | 11700 , 57.9 | 57.9 | |||
Giannis has been cooking, and it's full steam ahead in a game that Vegas thinks will be competitive. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Jimmy Butler, PF | 7900 , 37.1 | 37.1 | 8100 , 37.6 | 37.6 | ||
Jimmy and the Warriors have been great. He's in play for tourneys on this small slate, even if Curry plays. If you can't stomach the value at F, I have no issues with Butler in a late-night hammer game with a tight spread. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Draymond Green, PF | 6200 , 32.5 | 32.5 | 6600 , 32.9 | 32.9 | ||
Draymond feels like a cash play, with a high floor in a alleged competitive game. Game Type: CASH | ||||||
Jonathan Kuminga, PF | 5500 , 29.1 | 29.1 | 5400 , 29 | 29 | ||
Welp, Curry is out now, so unless we hear about any type of restrictions for Kuminga, he's certainly squarely in the conversation on this tiny slate. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Georges Niang, PF | 4200 , 21.1 | 21.1 | 4300 , 19.8 | 19.8 | ||
Niang lives and dies by the 3-ball a lot, but without LeVert, he should have a bigger role in a cupcake matchup. As of the afternoon, he's a good value play. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Wendell Moore, PF | 17.7 | 3800 , 18.1 | 18.1 | |||
Moore has a scary floor, but add him to the laundry list of Hornets that are on the radar, and will be even more so if Ball sits. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Ivica Zubac, C | 8400 , 44.2 | 44.2 | 8000 , 43.3 | 43.3 | ||
Zubac will probably offer one of the safest floors at the position tonight despite the tough matchup. They'll need his height. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
8100 , 41.5 | 41.5 | 8000 , 41 | 41 | |||
Today's cover boy is in play for GPPs regardless of LaMelo's situation, but I'll be very invested if Ball is out, like I said in the intro. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
7500 , 35 | 35 | 7800 , 35.7 | 35.7 | |||
I think OO might get worked on the defensive end, but Williams is no defensive savant either Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Al Horford, C | 5100 , 26.5 | 26.5 | 5300 , 26.4 | 26.4 | ||
This guy burns me a lot, but if Tatum is out, Al might have a nice little ceiling at a cheap price on a small slate. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Jusuf Nurkić, C | 3300 , 12.8 | 12.8 | 4600 , 12.6 | 12.6 | ||
Nurk is so cheap on DK that he kind of just has to exist in like 15-20 minutes to be “fine” at worst. He's recent log is a bit brutal, but I'm very interested in GPPs - but this is mostly a DK-specific play due to price. Game Type: GPP | ||||||