Context is King in the NBA Schedule Breakdown

Context is everything. Every week this season I have recommended fantasy players based on their upcoming schedule. To make those recommendations I have considered a number of factors, including traditional stats, advanced stats, injuries, rest, recent performance and availability. I stand by all of the recommendations I made, even the ones that didn’t work out. I had sound reasons for every name that has appeared in this column. Even so, I know I made recommendations that didn’t apply to some readers.

Some of the guys I recommended were probably owned in your league, or maybe you didn’t have anyone you could drop for one of my guys. Maybe you didn’t need steals that week. I have no idea. All I can do is present guys who could help you based upon the matchups. It is up to you to weigh my recommendations within the context of your specific situation. That is more important than ever this week.

In this addition of the NBA Schedule Breakdown we take a look at the week from Monday, April 6 to Monday, April 13. This is the last full week of the NBA season for our purposes. With that in mind, the context of your league is probably going to be more important than any of my schedule considerations. For instance, you may not want to pick up Jameer Nelson—even though I think he is a great pickup—if you need a lot of games play. The Nuggets only have three games this week, so you may be better off going with a lesser player set to play five times. Similarly, Tarik Black isn’t going to help you if are up against a starts limit, or if you are already guaranteed to win points and rebounds.

The players below can help you, but only in the right context. Be sure to consider your own needs as well as the upcoming schedule. As always I am happy to answer questions on Twitter or in the comments below.

Jameer Nelson, Denver Nuggets (Home vs. Lakers, Home vs. Mavericks, Home vs. Kings) I would argue Nelson should be owned in most leagues anyway, as he is averaging 15.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 0.8 steals over his last nine games. In fact, I just picked him up in the FantasyAlarm league. That being said, Denver’s schedule this week is pretty perfect for Jameer Nelson’s skill set. Nelson is averaging 1.5 3PM per game this season, and the Mavs, Kings and Lakers rank second, third and fifth in opponent’s 3PM per game. Nelson has also averaged 5.5 points per 48 minutes on drives to the basket in Denver while the Lakers and Kings are second and fourth in opponent’s field goal percentage at the rim. Randy Foye and Will Barton could be useful in deeper leagues as well.

Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls (Road vs. Magic, Road vs. Heat, Home vs. 76ers, Road vs. Nets) If you need rebounds and/or blocks down the stretch, Taj Gibson may be the best place to find them. He has averaged just 20 minutes per game since returning from injury, but did have 14 points, nine rebounds and a block in 24 minutes against the Knicks Saturday.  Over the last 15 games the 76ers are fourth in the NBA in opponent’s blocks while the Magic are ninth.  Over that same time the 76ers and Nets are first and second in opponent’s rebounds. Even in limited minutes Gibson could have a big week for fantasy.

Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings (Home vs. Timberwolves, Road vs. Jazz, Road vs. Thunder, Road vs. Nuggets, Home vs. Lakers) The Kings are one of the few teams with five games next week, so right off the bat you have an advantage if you need to rack up starts. The real value here for McLemore, however, is in steals. He is averaging a steal per game since the All-Star break, and the Lakers, Timberwolves, Thunder and Nuggets are second, third, sixth and 11^th in opponent’s steals over the last 15 games. The Thunder and Timberwolves are all in the top six in opponent’s threes over the last 15 games, which helps McLemore as well.

J.R. Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers (Road vs. Bucks, Home vs. Celtics, Road vs. Celtics, Home vs. Pistons) Smith isn’t the most consistent cat around, which may explain why he is still available in a lot of leagues. That being said, he averaged 13 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 0.5 blocks on .443 shooting in March. Greg Monroe may be back when the Cavs host Detroit, which would make that matchup more formidable, but the Celtics are seventh in opponent’s points this season and the Bucks are 11^th in opponent’s 3PM.

Tarik Black, Los Angeles Lakers (Road vs. Clippers, Road vs. Nuggets, Home vs. Timberwolves, Home vs. Mavericks, Road vs. Kings) I actually like Jordan Hill, Ed Davis and Carlos Boozer better, but since Black is the only Lakers frontcourt player who is going to play every day, he gets the nod here. FantasyAlarm will, of course, keep you up to date on all of the latest NBA news, so you can get Hill, Davis or Boozer in your lineup when they are actually going to start. The bottom line here is the Lakers’ schedule is good for all of their big men. The Timberwolves, Kings, Mavs and Nuggets are all in the top eight in opponent’s points over the last 15 games, while the Clippers are 11^th. No one has allowed more opponent’s blocks over that time than the Nuggets and Kings while the Mavericks and Nuggets are second and seventh in opponent’s rebounds.