It is that time again as we head into yet another NBA season for daily fantasy! With that said, just wanted to provide a bit of a primer for the folks that may need a refresher, or if totally new to daily fantasy, a few tips and strategies for playing both cash games (50/50’s or Double-Ups) and GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pools or Tournament).
Cash Game Strategy/Tips
Will start with cash games, as I feel it could be somewhat important to begin your daily fantasy sports venture if you are new to the approach with cash games before diving into the big, wide-world of tournaments. Cash games are exactly as they are labeled – you put in a set amount of money to play, and you can make back your entry fee + an entry fee on top if you are to make the “cash line” (A cash line is the number of fantasy points needed to be in the top percentage of players who will “make the money”). So, for example – Let’s see you want to play $5 per entry fee. If you were to find a cash game, which are usually titled a “50/50” (meaning that all you have to do is beat out 50% of the field to hit the “cash line”) or a “Double-Up” (Where you only double your entry as well, but its not exactly beating 50% of the field, there is a pre-set number of players who “make the money” and it could be less than 50%). After finding one you like to play, you would draft a roster with your $5 entry and the MOST you can win back is $10 – your entry fee plus one entry. Now, since we have detailed what a cash game is defined as, let’s talk about a few tips when playing “cash games”.
Vegas Odds Matter
Utilize the Vegas Odds (Usually can find these any online sportsbook, or right here on FA) for the highest game totals (meaning which teams combined will score the most points in said game). In NBA there is a metric called “PACE” and this metric defines how fast a team plays, more so pertaining to how many possessions a team is getting per game. As the team plays faster – basically not running the shot-clock down every possession, the more possessions they tend to have in a full game. This is important. Why? Because more possessions = more opportunities. One major factor that you always have to put into the equation when determining what players to play is OPPORTUNITY. More opportunities create more chances for players to record fantasy point totals via points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, etc. So, in conclusion, find the games that are sporting the higher totals, and make your player pool influenced by those players in those games.
Chalk Isn’t Always Bad
Here’s the thing, when we get to the GPP portion on this article, this narrative changes, but for “Cash Games,” we are not paying near as much attention to chalk (Chalk is a term used for players who carry a high ownership for the slate – ex. Anthony Davis gets a match up against the Rockets without LeBron James . This would likely result in Anthony Davis ’s ownership (or the number of people playing Anthony Davis in their lineups on said night) will inevitably go up.) For cash, we are not as worried about what Davis’s ownership will be in the example mainly because we know that Davis will have a nice “floor,” due to his match up against the Rockets – a team that doesn’t play much defense, and play with a very fast PACE, and the fact that LeBron James is out meaning Davis’s usage rate (a term defining how often a Player gets the ball in opportunities during a game) will also be very high for this game. So, what is a floor? A floor refers to the lowest point total that you can project for a player to record in a game in terms of fantasy points. Whereas Davis would typically have a – let’s say, 40-fantasy point floor WITH LeBron James on the floor against the Rockets, he may have a 55-fantasy point floor (for example purposes) with James off the floor and against the Rockets on this given night. In conclusion, you WANT/MUST have the high-floor players in your lineups, albeit their ownership percentage, when playing “cash games.”
Contest Selection
This is likely the MOST important factor when playing “cash game.” Contest selection is very crucial. A term that every daily fantasy player should familiarize themselves with is “Over-lay.” What is over-lay? This term is referred to when a contest doesn’t meet the required number of entrants that the provider has set forth for the contest. (Ex. Let’s say there is a 50/50 contest that is set to have 455 entrants when full capacity, but this contest is set to lock (start-time) in an hour and only has 290 entrants at the moment. If this contest does not get to 455 entrants be lock, whatever remaining entry spots that did not get taken by an entrant will be considered “over-lay”. In guaranteed 50/50’s (contests with a prize pool that is guaranteed no matter if the contest fills or not), the entry fees that are not used by entrants will then be essentially paid out of the pocket of the provider offering the contest.) So, with that said, if there only happens to be 300 entrants enter this 50/50 guaranteed contest out of the 455 set forth by the provider – the provider STILL has to pay out 50% of the field no matter what. This presents a larger opportunity for your entry fees to reach that 50% margin with the lesser entrants entered into the contest in comparison to when the contest meets the full number (455 in the example) of entrants. Finding these contests will present larger margins for you to get into that 50% of the field that “makes the money.” Find these contests, monitor the field in terms of entrants, have your lineups ready well before lock, and once you can pounce knowing the contests won’t get near the entrants required – fire away.
To piggy-back off this sentiment, I would highly advise looking for these edges for one, but for two, (especially for new players) find the “cash games” that are lower max entries. So, instead of playing “cash games” with 150 or even 105, or 20-max entries (the max number of entries a player can enter into), find the contests that are single entry, or three-max entries to play to even further diminish the field that you have to beat in order to “make the money,”
GPP or Tournament STRATEGY/TIPS:
Contest Selection
Starting off this GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournament) session with contest selection. There are two things to consider here when dealing with what contests you will choose to play in terms of tournaments. A.) Are you playing daily fantasy sports to make money as a job, meaning your bills, household, etc. are relying on your success here? B.) Are you playing daily fantasy sports as a recreational, leisure-time hobby? Now, both of these have bearing on which contests you should likely be eye-balling in terms of the success rates and size of field, or entrants. If you are in the “A” group, you likely need to be more concerned about the size of the field in the contest you are playing. As mentioned above, the smaller number of entrants in the tournament, the higher the odds are that you can reach the money. If you are serious about playing daily fantasy as a “job” and the success is relied upon – stick to single entry, 3-max entry, 5-max entry, and 20-max entry tournaments. Sticking to the lower-max entry fee tournaments will allow your success rate to be derived from how much preparation and process you place in your daily fantasy playing. If you are in the “B” group – fire away at those large field tournaments with massive top-heavy first place prizes. Referring to the 150-max entry fields that are multiple-thousands in entry numbers, as you are playing to hit “the BIG one”, right? The difference between the two here is that whereas when you are looking at success rate more so often in group “A”, you can afford to not be as “successful” in group “B”. Let me explain. I am not going to write out an arithmetic problem here to show you how much less you need to be “successful” when playing large field tournaments in terms of the risk vs reward aspect of tournaments. It is more geared towards, “If I am right once out of 30 attempts – what is the pay off?” Ideally, if you have set bankroll, and somewhat stick to bankroll management processes, you can afford to lose more entry fees, as long as you are on the right track with your process in order to hit the “big one.” Now, again, I don’t have to write out a math problem to show you that if you invest $200 dollars in small entry fee, large field tournament (Let’s say with at least $10K to first place) and it takes you a net loss of $170 dollars in a span of 25 days to win a top-five place in this tournament (winning anywhere from $1,000 to $10,000) how much “more” you will profit over time with this strategy, in comparison to group “A” players, who although will have to same chances to win tournaments, or place high in those tournaments, yet the “reward” top prize is generally a small fraction, or portion in single-entries or three-max entry tournaments (example – the single entry or three-max may have 1/3rd of the field than the 150-max contest, however, the top prize for the SE or 3-max is $1,000, compared to $10,000 in the 150-max tournament.) So in conclusion, if you are playing for bill money/Kid’s diapers, you need to have a little less risk in your play, if you are playing with a “fun fund,” take more shots – simply because you only need to be precisely “right” way less often to make lots of profit.
GOOD CHALK/BAD CHALK
Going to kick this off with the discussion that everyone loves to debate on, but lots of folks still get this wrong tons. There is a major difference in having “good” chalk in your lineup for a tournament and having “bad” chalk. A great example happened last year with Ricky Rubio injured for Phoenix they started back up player Elie Okobo . Okobo was min-price but is a low usage player and while his price point didn’t require a ton of production for him to hit value, the upside was still very low and ultimately he failed to come through. Moral of this story is – Analyze the “chalk” or “free square” plays before making them a play. Now, “good” chalk is dependent on the role that is being filled, the usage the player was getting that is now out (if it is a back-up or replacement), or that low-price guy that “should'' get a lot of work. Let me say this, it is OK to have chalk in your lineup. The difference is what you do with the rest of your lineup in parallel with the chalk. There comes a point where even if James Harden is going to be 60% owned on a slate without Russell Westbrook in the lineup, but he’s facing the Pelicans and you damn well know that Harden has the potential to go for 85 fantasy points, there is that factor that “if he goes off and you don’t have him, you are dead.” Now, there is no “right” or “wrong” way to analyze players in terms of good or bad chalk, but it should be researched logically in the same essence that you would use a process to research a regular player. If the boxes check out, then play that player, if they do not, DON’T FOLLOW THE HYPE, and do not play the player. This could literally have a whole page written just on this topic, but I felt I wanted to hit the main points of playing chalk in a tournament. So, in conclusion, analyze all players with the same process, chalk is in the eye of the beholder, and it is totally dependent on what YOU believe that player will do in whether you should roster them or not.
Take RISKS
Let’s be real, if you are new to daily fantasy sports, you likely haven’t had time to take a gander and review some of the top winning lineups in large-field tournaments with top prizes of $10K, $50K, $100K, etc. The thing that you will typically see however is a “low-owned”, “less-thought of,” play that likely did way better than their average score. Finding “pivots'' (alternate plays) to chalk can be a huge leverage in large-field tournaments. For instance, we all know that public perception plays a HUGE role in the everyday fantasy player/sports bettor’s conscious. We ALL want to play the LeBron James , James Harden , Anthony Davis ’s in every contest we play if they are there, but in all reality, finding lower-owned plays around these same price-points can help you gain leverage on the field. IF you believe that Luka Doncic can score just as much as James Harden – but we know Harden is going to be the chalk and Luka may come in with a much lesser ownership – don’t be afraid to take a little risk in your lineups when playing large-field, 150-max entry tournaments. On the flip side of this, when trying to fit in these studs, you will have to find value plays, or plays that are cheaper that have some upside to run alongside your studs. There are many ways to construct a tournament lineup, but after factoring in: price, ownership, OPPORTUNITY, etc., the last thing you should be asking yourself is can this player hit such a value in comparison to his price as – Let’s say 6x. So, with that said, if you have a player that likely no one is looking at and they are $4,000 salary, you are ideally looking for a 24+ fantasy point return to make that play “valuable” to your lineup. Of course, the rest of your lineup needs to perform in order for this all to work in unison, but that is the point, stop playing the player names, and start thinking about players in terms of outputs. Start thinking about players in terms of “how many points can this player score on his best night?” In conclusion, don’t be afraid to take some shots, or risks, in large-field tournaments, because you never know when a player might have a career night.