NBA DFS Position Coach -- April 11, 2016

Monday is a bittersweet day for me. On the one hand, I hate that the season is coming to an end, but on the other hand, I cannot wait for the playoffs to begin. And on another hand, I really like Monday’s slate. There are sure to be some ugly games, with recently-eliminated teams like the Bulls and Wizards likely sitting most of their good players, but that just means extra opportunity for some talented guys who are extra cheap. Besides, any time you can get Jimmy Butler and James Harden in the same lineup, it is a good day in my book.

Point Guard

I am probably not paying much for my point guards Monday, as there are four cheap options all worth looking at, including a couple I will have an awfully hard time passing up. That being said, I can’t argue with anybody who plays Russell Westbrook, especially if John Wall and Rajon Rondo are out again. Only the Suns and Kings have allowed more fantasy points to point guards than the Lakers this season, and Westbrook has been a triple-double machine over the last month.

Matthew Dellavedova has been pretty disappointing lately, but he played 27 minutes Saturday and he should see similar minutes Monday with Iman Shumpert and Mo Williams out. His upside is limited, but you should get decent production at a near-minimum price.

Archie Goodwin has at least 16 points, two rebounds and three assists in each of his last two games. He has been productive before when he has gotten a chance, and the Kings are last in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to point guards.

It is a sad commentary on the state of the Bulls that Derrick Rose pretty much only plays well when one of the other stars is out. I would like Rose better if Jimmy Butler was out, but it probably isn’t a coincidence two of Rose’s three 30-point games came with Pau Gasol out, and the third was a four-overtime game. With Gasol sitting Monday, Rose could be looking at another big game.

In years past, Aaron Brooks has been a statistical monster with Derrick Rose out. That hasn’t been the case this season, thanks to E’Twaun Moore and Kirk Hinrich, but Brooks is the only point guard left on the roster, and he should get a ton of minutes. Brooks is still averaging 16.1 points and 5.9 assists per 36 minutes this season, and I suspect he will play at least 30 minutes Monday.

Ramon Sessions has two double-doubles in the last three games, and even with his price going up, he will be a steal if he gets another double-double Monday. It would only help if Bradley Beal is out Monday, as Sessions played a season-high 36 minutes Sunday with Beal ailing.

Shooting Guard

Seth Curry is averaging 17.0 points, 2.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 30.0 minutes over his last five games. His price is still pretty low, and it helps that the Suns have allowed the second-most points in the NBA this season.

Evan Fournier stepped up in a big way with Victor Oladipo out Sunday, scoring a team-high 21 points in 32 minutes on 9-of-16 shooting. Mario Hezonja entered the starting lineup and played 32 minutes of his own, with a more modest 10 points and three rebounds. Both players should make good plays if Oladipo sits again.

James Harden has averaged 42.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games, which is just an absurd number. He is averaging 30.4 points, 5.7 rebounds and 9.6 assists over those games, and so long as Houston is playing meaningful games, Harden will be the best fantasy shooting guard by a wide margin.

With Pau Gasol, E’Twuan Moore and Derrick Rose shut down for the final two games of the season, the offense will run through Jimmy Butler. Butler has been great statistically for the most part when Rose is out, and I don’t see any reason why Monday’s game against the Pelicans would be any different.

Justin Holiday is interesting as well, as he will likely be a de facto backup point guard with Moore out. Holiday has already averaged 23.8 minutes over the last five games, but he could get 30 minutes or more Monday.

Marcus Thornton scored 16 points in 31 minutes Sunday, and even started the second half with Bradley Beal resting. Thornton should see similar minutes if Beal and John Wall are out Monday, and he has proven time and again he can score in bunches when he gets an opportunity.

Small Forward

The good news at the small forward position is there are a lot of very solid guys who are playing well and have nice matchups. That has rarely been the case over the last couple of months. That being said, you should plan on spending up at this position. You don’t have to break the bank, but there simply aren’t any bargain plays worth considering at this position.

Mirza Teletovic is averaging 21.6 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 30.1 minutes over his last five games. No team has allowed as many points as the Kings, and this should be a very high scoring game.

Rudy Gay is averaging 20.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 blocks and 2.8 steals in 37.0 minutes in April, and it probably isn’t a coincidence DeMarcus Cousins, Rajon Rondo and Omri Casspi have all missed most of those games.

If you would rather play Giannis Antetokounmpo or LeBron James I won’t try too hard to stop you, but I’m going with Kevin Durant. Durant has at least 48 fantasy points on DraftKings in seven consecutive games. Only the Rockets have allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than the Lakers this season, and it doesn’t hurt that Durant costs less than Giannis.

As for the aforementioned Rockets, they face Andrew Wiggins and the Timberwolves Monday. Wiggins has averaged 24.5 points, 2.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals in two games against Houston this season.

Power Forward

Much like point guard, I am mostly going cheap at power forward, but there is one expensive guy I really like. Paul Millsap has averaged 21.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.5 blocks and 3.0 steals in two games against the Cavaliers this season. He is clearly the best power forward playing Monday, especially if Derrick Favors is out.

Derrick Favors was a late scratch Sunday, and hopefully if he cannot go Monday, we will know a bit sooner. Trey Lyles entered the starting lineup and scored 22 points with six rebounds and two assists in 32 minutes. Lyles would be a nice play if Favors is out again.

Pau Gasol has been ruled out for Monday’s game, meaning all of the frontcourt minutes in Chicago will go to Bobby Portis, Nikola Mirotic and Cristiano Felicio. Portis is probably the best play of the three, considering his price and upside, but Mirotic is the only one capable of taking on Gasol’s offensive workload. All three are risky upside plays.

Somebody is going to have to take the bulk of the shots if John Wall and Bradley Beal are both out, and there is an excellent chance Markieff Morris is that guy. Morris is averaging 16.3 points on 14.3 field goal attempts with Wall out the last three games.

Center

There are a lot of centers I like in Monday’s slate, and while you certainly do not need to, I would like to get one of the more expensive guys into my lineup. I would also give strong consideration to playing two centers on sites that have a utility spot.

Alexis Ajinca has two double-doubles in his last four games, and I like his chances at another one against the terrible Bulls. Now that they have officially been eliminated from the playoffs, I suspect the Bulls will roll over like dogs, and they have been terrible all season against opposing centers.

Cody Zeller played just 17 minutes Sunday, and Frank Kaminsky stepped up with 18 points and 11 rebounds in 30 minutes. Zeller is questionable, and both Kaminsky and Al Jefferson could see more minutes if Zeller sits. Kaminsky is a nice play if Zeller is out, and Jefferson would be worth playing as well  if he gets the start.

Nikola Vucevic is a fine alternative if you fade Pau Gasol. Since returning from his groin injury, Vucevic is averaging 22.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.2 blocks. He has played at least 30 minutes in three of his last four games, and that should continue if Aaron Gordon is still out.

While Trey Lyles was the most obvious beneficiary of Derrick Favors’s absence Sunday, Rudy Gobert had a big game as well, with 16 points, 14 rebounds and six blocks in a team-high 38 minutes. Like Lyles, Gobert’s fantasy value largely depends on Favors’s status.