NBA DFS Position Coach: April 5, 2016

It was really weird not having any NBA games Monday. It makes sense why the NBA wouldn’t want to go up against the NCAA Men’s Championship Game and Opening Day, but it still didn’t feel right. I guess we should get used to it, as the regular season will be over before we know it. Fortunately, Tuesday features a full NBA slate and a bunch of awesome DFS values as we enter the home stretch.

Point Guard

There are usually a bunch of DFS plays I like at point guard, but Tuesday’s point guard crop is decidedly stars and scrubs. I actually lean more toward the scrubs in this group, but there is no denying there are some awesome stars with nice matchups.

Matthew Dellavedova is averaging 9.6 points, 2.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists as a starter this season, and he will likely start again Tuesday if Kyrie Irving is out. He may not have a high ceiling, but he is quite cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Tim Frazier has failed to score at least 10 points just once in 10 games since joining New Orleans. It still hurts that one game came when I recommended him last week, but I’m going back to the well anyway. Frazier is averaging 13.6 points, 3.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists with the Pelicans, and that kind of production should cost more.

Speaking of guys who should cost more, Tyler Ennis is averaging 10.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists in 27.0 minutes over his last four games. Like Frazier, he costs too little for that kind of production, and like Frazier, Ennis has double-double upside.

Isaiah Canaan got the start Saturday with Hollis Thompson out, scoring 24 points in 37 minutes. Canaan will likely start again Tuesday with Thompson out, and Canaan is averaging 12.1 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.0 assists as a starter this season.

When I began my research for Tuesday’s slate I saw Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul and Damian Lillard facing teams ranked 23^rd or worse in fantasy points allowed to point guards and thought I had to play one of those guys, but I don’t know how to pick one. With so many cheap point guard options, and some expensive guys I love at other positions, I no longer think you have to play an elite point guard. Furthermore, if you are looking to play one, the easiest solution is simply to fill the rest of your lineup first, and then play the most expensive guy you can afford. That being said, since I have to choose, I’m choosing Stephen Curry. He costs slightly less than Westbrook but has been just as good, if not slightly better, over the last two weeks. It also doesn’t hurt Curry is averaging 32.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists against the Timberwolves this season.

Shooting Guard

Often the shooting guard position comes down to one stud and a bunch of cheap players, and the only difference Tuesday is James Harden isn’t the stud. For the most part this season, Jimmy Butler’s numbers have been much better with Derrick Rose out of the lineup, and it is no surprise Butler’s post-injury swoon ended when Rose suffered his latest elbow injury. Rose is questionable Tuesday, and Butler’s price remains pretty low despite averaging 24.7 points, 10.0 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.3 blocks over his last three games.

E’Twaun Moore will likely start again if Rose is out, and while he hasn’t exactly filled the stat sheet over the last couple of games, he is averaging 12.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 0.9 steals as a starting guard this season.

Nicolas Batum is questionable Monday, and most of his minutes will likely to go Jeremy Lamb. Lamb is a bit risky after he played just four minutes Sunday, but he costs the minimum and he is capable of filling the stat sheet in even 15 or 20 minutes. Courtney Lee is a ridiculous value on FantasyAces, and a more modest one on the other sites. Lee has already averaged 36.3 minutes per game over his last four games, so Batum’s absence probably won’t lead to much more playing time, but it could lead to more shots.

Gerald Green will likely always be better for tournament than cash game lineups, but he could be a value in any format Tuesday. Green is averaging 10.6 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.1 assists as a starter this season, and he scored 30 points in a surprise start Friday against the Kings. There might not be anybody else at his price who is capable of scoring 30.

Small Forward

LeBron James has been playing great for the last couple of months, but his numbers are even better when Kyrie Irving is out. LeBron averaged 29 points, 9.5 rebounds and 11.5 assists in the last two games Irving has missed. If Irving is out again Tuesday, LeBron will be well worth the price.

Since joining the Pelicans, James Ennis has scored in double-digits in all three games, averaging 12.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.3 steals in 27.7 minutes. His price is still low, especially on FantasyAces, and the 76ers are 30^th in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards and 23^rd in fantasy points allowed to small forwards.

P.J. Tucker and Mirza Teletovic have both stepped up their production in a big way over the last week, and it probably isn’t a coincidence Brandon Knight went down around the same time. The Hawks are 24^th in fantasy points allowed to small forwards. Tucker is probably a bit safer, and he even costs less on FantasyAces.

Power Forward

Power forward is the one position where I don’t really like any of the super-cheap options, but there are a lot of really attractive plays as long as you are willing to pay a bit more, starting with Kevin Love. It is quite telling for the Cavaliers’s long-term prospects how much better Love’s numbers are when Kyrie Irving is out. Irving has missed two of Cleveland’s last five games, and Love averaged 26.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists in those games. Love goes back to being an elite power forward when Kyrie Irving sits, and his price is quite modest.

Draymond Green is averaging 17.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 8.0 assists when he starts at center. Andrew Bogut is questionable for Tuesday’s game, but if he is out, Draymond will be one of my top targets. Green had 22 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, two steals and three blocks with Bogut out Sunday. 

Zach Randolph actually costs more than Love on FanDuel, which I can’t get behind if Kyrie is out, but there is no denying he has been very good lately when healthy. Randolph is averaging 19.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists over his last six games, and the Bulls don’t have anyone to bang with Z-Bo inside while Taj Gibson is out.

Paul Millsap is a nice alternative if you cannot quite afford Draymond Green. The Suns are 25^th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards, and Millsap is averaging 16.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 3.4 blocks and 2.2 steals over his last five games.

JaMychal Green has continued to play well even with Zach Randolph back in the lineup, averaging 11.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.3 blocks over the last three games. Green had 11 points in 14 minutes in his only game against the Bulls this season.

Center

Alexis Ajinca has averaged 14.2 points and 7.0 rebounds over the last six games, and he could get the start Tuesday after starting the second half Sunday. No team has allowed as many fantasy points to centers as the 76ers, and no team has allowed as many opponent’s rebounds since the All-Star break.

DeMarcus Cousins is averaging 29.8 points per game at home this season and 31.7 ppg on 3+ days of rest. Cousins hasn’t played since Wednesday, but he is averaging 25.3 points and 13.5 rebounds over his last six games.

If you can’t afford Cousins, or if you play on DraftKings where Cousins is a power forward, Hassan Whiteside is a very safe alternative. The Pistons are 25^th in fantasy points allowed to centers, and Whiteside has averaged 15.5 points, 14.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks in two games against Detroit this season.

Al Jefferson is questionable Tuesday, and Cody Zeller is averaging 9.6 points and 4.7 rebounds as a starting center this season. I would actually rather spend less for Ajinca or pay up for a stud, but Zeller is a reasonable in-between play.