Yesterday I went and had an Endoscopy, they went in through the top…not the bottom. Anyhow, as I laid there on the table and the nurse told me I would be getting sleepy I thought to myself, Sunday night I will be watching baseball. Then I realized "The Walking Dead" season finale was going to be on and there is no way Jennifer Colvin would allow that. The next thing I knew the whole procedure was over and I was awake again. Just like that.
Monday morning, I am going to have my gallbladder removed. This is normally a pretty routine procedure but I am not routine. You see, I used to be almost 500 lbs. Not being able to see bodily appendages and the thought of an imminent heart attack led me to pursue having gastric bypass surgery. Two years later I am only 260 lbs. so it worked, the problem is the doctor should have removed my gallbladder prior. Now the new doctor has to go in through my “old” stomach to remove it. Which is a whole new can of worms. As a result, I will be out all of next week. So this very well could by my last Position Coach article. If it is I want to thank all of you for reading this article this NBA season and I see no reason at this time why I will not be picking it back up next season. You will still be able to find my work starting soon in the DFS Playbook PRO MLB section under Pitching Coach.
We have a nice five-game slate but for DFS purposes I am eliminating the Toronto-Spurs game. I find it highly unpredictable and on a slate with little to spend up for, I see no need to pay for players in a game with huge blowout risk with San Antonio being 10.5-point favorites and a low 197.5 expected point total. I also read earlier Toronto could rest some players tonight and I would hate to find out after lineup lock I have no Kyle Lowry or DeMar DeRozan in my lineup killing my evening. Not to mention it could trigger San Antonio to do the same, causing you to take zeros on both ends. I would only use players from this game in GPPs and even then I am completely avoiding them. If you are playing on sites that allow late swaps, of course you can use these players but I still would proceed with caution.
We do not have a ton of superstars tonight and so far just tinkering around I have had zero trouble building lineups that look good. I also find little in the way of viable value tonight. Not that it does not exist it just is not needed.
With my wife cooking bacon, a sick 4-year-old in my bed, and all the kids home driving me nuts, I bring you today’s Position Coach Article.
No excel sheets again today as our tech guys are still working out the bugs and as always all fantasy points per game (ppg) references are FanDuel specific.
Point Guard
Strategy
It is kind of "blah" at the point guard position tonight. I have little interest in Kyle Lowry and zero interest in any player under $4K at the position. With a bevy of options at the mid-priced level lineup construction at the one should be easy enough.
Core Plays
If you eliminate Lowry the only player worth spending up for is Damian Lillard. The Trail Blazers are favored by four points at home in a game with the second highest expected point total of the night at 209.5. Lillard is a player who has the ability to throw up 50 fantasy points when he gets hot and has managed to score over 30 fantasy ppg in seven out of his last 10 games going over the 40 mark versus the Pelicans (49.6) and Mavericks (42.2). He has not looked good in his last two games which could drive his ownership down despite the small slate, not to mention the horrible matchup with Miami allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to point guards. Myself, I would only use him in a GPP tonight with cheaper options producing the same or similar numbers as Lillard as of late.
With no DeMarcus Cousins or Rajon Rondo (which by the way killed me in my head-to-head NBA seasonal league) resting tonight I could not insert Darren Collison into my lineup soon enough. Is he going to be the chalk? Yes. Do I care? No. The bottom line is for the price of $5,800 on FanDuel I find him to be a source of enormous value facing a Denver team allowing the 21st most fantasy ppg to point gaurds. He also, in his last four games, has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in each and is averaging almost 30 fantasy ppg in this span. The minutes are available and he is a great way to gain exposure to the highest expected point total of the night at 217.5. I myself will be using him in my cash games tonight.
The player I currently have paired with Collison is Reggie Jackson. Although he is not as fuzzy looking as his older counterpart who played for the Athletics, Yankees, and Angels, he does have a great matchup tonight facing a Bulls team allowing the 27th most fantasy ppg to point guards. Jackson has been able to score over 30 fantasy ppg in two of his last four versus the Hornets (30.7) and Mavericks (30) last night. His price to me seems low at $5,900 and he is a great cash game and GPP play tonight.
Possible Value
The Nuggets also have a few players tonight worth looking at. Among them is Emmanuel Mudiay and D.J. Augustin. For $800 cheaper on FanDuel I much prefer to use Augustin. They both have some risk and both actually produce similar numbers with Augustin actually putting up a little better numbers as of late. Augustin has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games going over the 30 mark three times versus the Magic (31.8), Lakers (36.6), and Clippers (37.4). If I was to take a point guard under $5K tonight he would be the guy.
Shooting Guard
Strategy
Much like the point guard position we have a bunch of mid-priced players to choose from tonight outside of a select few who are borderline. I will be spending up a little tonight at the two and pairing an expensive player with a value play but you can use any of the choices below how you see fit, if at all.
Core Plays
It feels like forever since I have rostered Jimmy Butler but tonight is the night. The minutes are back where we like them as he has played over 35 minutes in six of his last seven games. He also appears to be coming back to his old form as he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last seven games going over the 40 mark versus the Rockets on Thursday night (42.6). His price is under $8K now and with little to spend for why not take a chance on the Butler tonight even in a bad matchup with the Pistons allowing the seventh fewest fantasy ppg to shooting gaurds.
Monta Ellis is the safest choice tonight at the two for cash games. The Sixers are allowing the 19th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and Ellis has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last 10 games going over the 40 mark versus the Rockets on March 27 (46.7). The Pacers are 11-point favorites so we do have blowout risk, but it does not scare me as much with the Pacers as it would a team like the Spurs. For the price facing a horrible team like Philadelphia I expect Ellis to be highly owned and with good reason.
For $5,400 on FanDuel Will Barton has enormous upside. He is a ball hog and takes a lot of shots. A lot. He also has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in two of his last three games while scoring more than 20 real points twice. The Nuggets are fantasy gold tonight facing a Kings team that is pretty much playing all bench players right now and allowing the 29th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards.
Possible Value
Seth Curry, which still amazes me to be writing about, is a prime play and probably the best value at shooting guard tonight. Now that he is in the starting role he is producing real fantasy numbers. He has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in three of his last four games putting up 30.9 fantasy points last night versus the Heat. The Nuggets are allowing the 27th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and with the minutes being available tonight for Curry I find him almost impossible to pass up for $3,700 on FanDuel and the near minimum across the industry.
Small Forward
Strategy
For a small slate this position is loaded. It seems we went from being devoid at the small forward position to overloaded as of late. No matter what you have to spend you should easily find a viable option that is cash game safe tonight. I see no need and will not be chasing any players under $5K at the three tonight and have not included any of them in this article.
Core Plays
With no LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, and Kawhi Leonard, in my opinion, not trustworthy I see no way you do not roster Paul George. The Sixers are allowing the 29th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and George has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three straight with one double-double in the form of points and assists. He has the highest usage rate on the slate among small forwards by far and is as close to a must play as possible tonight facing a Sixers team allowing the 29th most fantasy ppg overall.
Rudy Gay is the other player from the Kings tonight I am rostering myself. As earlier mentioned, we have no DeMarcus Cousins or Rajon Rondo tonight. The other player besides Collison who benefits the most is Gay. He scored 37.1 fantasy points in his last game versus the Heat who are allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg to the three and tonight faces the Nuggets who are allowing the 19th most. I fail to see how you pass on him, chalk or not.
The Pistons are a prime team to target tonight along with the Pacers and the Kings. One player you have to put into serious consideration tonight is Marcus Morris. Not only are the Bulls allowing the 26th most fantasy ppg to power forwards (where he is starting) but Morris is red hot scoring 36.4 and 57.4 fantasy points in his last two. His price is only $5,700 on FanDuel and similar across the industry. If you were to pass on George, he is the player I would pair with Gay tonight.
Al-Farouq Aminu even though I have not written about it in a while still reminds me of Gary Gnu. He sometimes plays like him to. Tonight, Aminu gets a neutral matchup with the Heat allowing the 15th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and he is averaging well over 30 fantasy ppg in his last three. You can try and get sneaky and go Moe Harkless but Aminu is the way to go for the price.
Possible Value
Anyone? Hello? Anyone? Guess not.
Power Forward
Strategy
As with most of the slate we have little to pay up for at the four tonight. Although we do have some nice value there is once again little need to use it. The way to go tonight for cash games is to take a few players in the $6K range tonight with 40 fantasy point upside and let them loose.
Core Plays
Dwyane Wade (back) is a GTD and is more than likely not going to play at the time of writing this article. It seems very unlikely to me Wade will play which leads me to the conclusion that Luol Deng is the man tonight. Although Goran Dragic gets a bump I find the quickest way to 40 fantasy points for a cheaper price than Dragic is Deng who has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in five of his last nine games going over the 40 mark (46.2) versus the Lakers. The Trail Blazers are allowing the 22nd most fantasy ppg to power forwards and for $6,300 on FanDuel I am sure I will be saying “god Deng” by night's end…in a good way.
Kenneth Faried tonight is facing a Kings team allowing the most fantasy ppg to power forwards. I don’t know about you but whenever I see the number 30 in any defensive matchup I get excited. When you add in a player with nice upside like Faried in a game with a high 217.5 expected point total it almost makes me dance. Horribly I assure you. Faried in his last game scored 30.4 fantasy points versus the Pelicans on Thursday night with a double-double and appears to be back on track. I prefer him in a GPP more than cash games.
Tobias Harris is the player I currently have paired with Paul George tonight in my early lineup. The Bulls are allowing the 25th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and the 25th most fantasy ppg overall. This means we have plenty of fantasy points up for grabs and a few players from the Detroit side of things would be prudent. Harris has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in nine straight going over the 30 mark versus the Hawks (38.7 & 40.5), Magic (31.3), and Thunder (30.9). His price is $6,300 which seems more than doable tonight.
Possible Value
Carl Landry is playing center tonight and has a higher usage rate than Andre Drummond. His price is only $4,800 on FanDuel and he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in two of his last three. The matchup is neutral with the Pacers allowing the 15th most or fewest fantasy ppg depending on your demeanor but I see no reason he does not continue this trend tonight and I will peg him for at least 25.
There is other value but it only gets riskier from here and with no players over $10K why do it to yourself? Right? The way I see it, with baseball coming my nails might start to grow back and rostering players like Willie Cauley-Stein cause me to chew them to nubs.
Center
Strategy
It came down to four centers for me tonight. After careful consideration I will tell you that the only two I would pay up for would be Andre Drummond or Hassan Whiteside who both have great matchups and price tags in the $8K range. Of the two I prefer Whiteside but honestly if you can afford either of them they both make great cash game plays. At this time, I will be going cheap at center tonight as I do most nights as I see a few players who are dirt cheap who could get me 30 fantasy points tonight with a little luck and goodwill from the DFS gods.
Core Plays
Ian Mahinmi is so underrated. I mean the guy is facing the Sixers who are allowing the most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. Although Mahinmi is not always a scoring machine he is a fantasy point producer. In his last four games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg with one double-double. His price is only $5,200 on FanDuel and similar across the industry. Why pay up with value like this to take advantage of? Loving me some Ian tonight.
Possible Value
If I do a GPP lineup tonight which at this time I am feeling like it is a one lineup kind of night I might take a stab at Kosta Koufos. Although the Nuggets are allowing the 11th fewest fantasy ppg to centers Koufos is has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three of his last four. For the near minimum his is a great punt play.
GO DODGERS!
Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73 or email me at: therealjerrycolvin@yahoo.com